Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras
Match recap
Vasco DA Gama beat Palmeiras 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Thiago Mendes and Cuiabano scored for Vasco DA Gama; López replied for Palmeiras. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.50 for Vasco DA Gama versus 0.71 for Palmeiras. Vasco DA Gama sit 13th in the Serie A table while Palmeiras are 1st.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Vasco DA Gama win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
This clash between Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras promises a tactical battle with both sides eager to assert their dominance early in the season. Vasco DA Gama will look to leverage their home advantage and recent form to claim all three points.
Match factors
Vasco DA Gama's Gómez key to unlocking Palmeiras defense
Gómez leads Vasco's scoring with 5 goals and strong recent form, likely to exploit Palmeiras' defense
Palmeiras' López top scorer advantage
López has 9 goals, significantly higher than Vasco's top scorer, boosting Palmeiras' attack threat
Thiago Mendes consistent midfield influence
Mendes has scored 4 goals and is captain, showing leadership and form for Vasco DA Gama
Andreas Pereira creative force for Palmeiras
Pereira leads assists with 10, key in creating chances and linking play for Palmeiras
Palmeiras missing key defenders Jefté and Paulinho
Confirmed outs weaken Palmeiras defense and attack options, potentially benefiting Vasco DA Gama
The context
In the regular season's fifth round, Vasco DA Gama sit mid-table while Palmeiras are pushing near the top. Historically, Palmeiras have had the upper hand in head-to-heads, but Vasco DA Gama's recent performances suggest they are ready to challenge that trend.
Key insights
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Gómez leads Vasco's scoring with 5 goals and strong recent form, likely to exploit Palmeiras' defense.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 24 appearances, 0.21 goals/game
J. López
Palmeiras
López has 9 goals, significantly higher than Vasco's top scorer, boosting Palmeiras' attack threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 26 appearances, 0.35 goals/game
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
Mendes has scored 4 goals and is captain, showing leadership and form for Vasco DA Gama.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 25 appearances, 0.16 goals/game
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Pereira leads assists with 10, key in creating chances and linking play for Palmeiras.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama's attacking midfielder A. Gómez has been in fine form, leading his team with five goals this season and providing a key creative spark. Palmeiras rely heavily on J. López, their top scorer with nine goals, but Vasco's defensive organisation, bolstered by players like J. Rodríguez, could stifle their threat. The match is expected to be tight, with a modest goal tally and a handful of cards reflecting the competitive nature of the encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Vasco DA Gama have won 3 of 20 meetings against Palmeiras, who have won 11, with 6 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals, with Palmeiras scoring nearly twice as many as Vasco DA Gama.
- 3.Vasco DA Gama are 14th in the league with 35 points from 29 games (W9 D8 L12).
- 4.Palmeiras are 2nd in the league with 60 points from 29 games (W17 D9 L3).
- 5.A. Gómez is Vasco DA Gama's top scorer with 5 goals this season.
- 6.J. López leads Palmeiras with 9 goals this season.
- 7.The predicted total cards for the match is 4.
- 8.Halftime and fulltime score predictions both favour a 1-0 win for Vasco DA Gama.
Prediction
We predict Vasco DA Gama to clinch a 1-0 victory, with the decisive goal likely coming in the first half. The match should feature around four cards, indicative of a hard-fought but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Palmeiras
The verdict
Expect a disciplined Vasco DA Gama side to edge out Palmeiras in a match where fine margins will decide the outcome. Their ability to capitalise on key moments and maintain defensive solidity should see them through to a narrow win.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
López
Assist: Freitas
Piton
Tchê Tchê
Yellow Card
Tchê Tchê
Nuno Moreira
Thiago Mendes
Assist: David
Anderson
López
David
Sosa
Khellven
Luighi Hanri
Yellow Card
Cuiabano
Assist: Paulo Henrique
Moura
Thiago Mendes
Yellow Card
Allan
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 7DavidF
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 10J. RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 98JPM
Palmeiras
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 6JeftéD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasM
- 12KhellvenD
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 19R. SosaF
- 42J. LópezF
Substitutes
- 4A. GiayD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 24AranhaG
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 40AllanF
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 56ArthurD
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 57 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 4/5 |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5/10 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Moura | M | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| David | F | 69 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cuiabano | D | 45 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Cauan Barros | M | 12 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Johan Rojas | F | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/2 |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José López | F | 69 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Khellven | D | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Jefté | D | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 72 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Aranha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Piquerez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Allan | F | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vasco DA Gama to win against Palmeiras.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Palmeiras.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 85% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.