Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio
Match recap
Vasco DA Gama beat Gremio 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Thiago Mendes and David scored for Vasco DA Gama; Carlos Vinícius replied for Gremio. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.48 for Vasco DA Gama versus 0.55 for Gremio. Vasco DA Gama sit 13th in the Serie A table while Gremio are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Vasco DA Gama win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Vasco DA Gama and Gremio face off in the 8th round of the regular season, with Vasco looking to extend their home advantage against a struggling Gremio side.
Match factors
Vasco DA Gama's midfield dominance
Vasco's midfielders like A. Gómez and Thiago Mendes have superior goal and assist rates, controlling the game
Home team’s superior scoring form
Vasco DA Gama averages 1.4 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 4-0 win
A. Gómez's recent impact
A. Gómez scored 1 goal in last 5 games and provides assists, showing good recent form
Gremio missing key players
Gremio has 5 confirmed outs including attackers and midfielders, weakening their attack
Defensive solidity from Vasco's backline
Defenders like Cuiabano and J. Rodríguez contribute defensively and offensively, aiding clean sheet chances
The context
Both teams sit in the lower half of the league table, with Vasco DA Gama in 14th place and Gremio in 18th. Historically, Gremio have had the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, but recent form and home advantage favour Vasco.
Key insights
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
A. Gómez is a key attacking outlet with 5 goals this season and strong recent form, contributing significantly to Vasco's midfield dominance.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 24 appearances, 0.21 goals/game
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
Thiago Mendes plays a crucial role with high minutes and 4 goals, helping control the midfield and support the attack.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 25 appearances, 0.16 goals/game
J. Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
J. Rodríguez is vital for creating chances with 4 assists and strong set-piece delivery, boosting Vasco's offensive threat.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 19 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Cuiabano
Vasco DA Gama
Cuiabano contributes both defensively and offensively with 3 assists, reinforcing Vasco's backline solidity.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 18 appearances, 0.17 assists/game
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama have shown strong attacking form at home, averaging 1.4 goals per game, while Gremio have been weakened by several confirmed absences, particularly in attack and midfield. Key players like A. Gómez and Thiago Mendes have been influential for Vasco, contributing goals and assists that have helped control matches. Defensively, Vasco's backline, including J. Rodríguez and Cuiabano, offers solidity and offensive support, increasing the likelihood of a clean sheet. Gremio's depleted squad and lower league standing suggest they will struggle to contain Vasco's dominance.
Key facts
- 1.Vasco DA Gama are currently 14th in the league with 35 points from 29 games.
- 2.Gremio sit 18th with 30 points from 29 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Gremio have won 11, Vasco 5, with 4 draws.
- 4.Vasco DA Gama average 1.4 goals per home game this season.
- 5.A. Gómez has scored 5 goals in 24 appearances this season.
- 6.Gremio have 5 confirmed absences affecting their attack and midfield.
- 7.J. Rodríguez leads Vasco's assists with 4 in 19 appearances.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 2-0, aligning with the fulltime prediction of 4-0.
Prediction
The prediction is a 4-0 home win for Vasco DA Gama, with a halftime lead of 2-0. This scoreline reflects Vasco's strong home form and Gremio's current vulnerabilities. The match is expected to be one-sided, with Vasco controlling the game from the outset and capitalising on Gremio's weakened lineup.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Gremio
The verdict
In summary, Vasco DA Gama are poised to deliver a comprehensive victory over Gremio, leveraging their home advantage and superior squad depth. Gremio will need to regroup quickly to avoid further setbacks in the league.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Thiago Mendes
Assist: Cuiabano
Goal confirmed
Cuiabano
Yellow Card
David
Assist: Cuiabano
Carlos Vinícius
Assist: Nardoni
Tetê
Balbuena
Viery
Yellow Card
Nardoni
Paulo Henrique
Nuno Moreira
Amuzu
Thiago Mendes
David
Rodríguez
Yellow Card
Carlos Vinícius
Cuiabano
Gómez
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 7DavidF
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 10J. RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Gremio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 7C. PavónD
- 8ArthurM
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 21TetêF
- 33L. PérezM
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 44VieryD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 4W. KannemannD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 10WillianM
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 77André HenriqueF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiabano | D | 82 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| David | F | 69 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 58 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 98 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 68 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 98 | 6.3 | — | — | 5 | 2 | — | 3/7 |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hugo Moura | M | 98 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Robert Renan | D | 98 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Cauan Barros | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Rojas | F | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Piton | D | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 40 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | 40 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Matheus França | F | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 75 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 98 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Weverton | G | 98 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur(C) | M | 98 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 64 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Leonel Pérez | M | 98 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 56 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 98 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | 45 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| André Henrique | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 53 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| José Enamorado | F | 53 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Willian | M | 42 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vasco DA Gama to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 4–0 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 89% chance of winning, Gremio a 5% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 89% confidence — a high-confidence call.