Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense
Match recap
Vasco DA Gama beat Fluminense 3–2 in their Serie A fixture. Nuno Moreira, Spinelli, and Thiago Mendes scored for Vasco DA Gama; Canobbio and Hércules replied for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.99 for Vasco DA Gama versus 0.73 for Fluminense. Vasco DA Gama sit 13th in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Vasco DA Gama win
Actual
3–2
Outcome probability
This Brazilian league encounter promises plenty of action as Vasco DA Gama look to bounce back from a slow start against Fluminense, who have been impressive on the road this season.
Match factors
Vasco DA Gama's midfield scoring edge
Vasco's midfielders Gómez and Thiago Mendes have above-average scoring rates, providing multiple goal threats from midfield.
Fluminense's key attacker Hulk in form
Hulk has scored 6 goals in 10 appearances with strong recent away form, posing a significant threat despite limited games.
Vasco DA Gama's defensive assist contribution
Defenders Cuiabano and J. Rodríguez contribute significantly to assists, enhancing attacking options from defense.
Fluminense missing top scorer John Kennedy
John Kennedy is confirmed out due to knee injury, reducing Fluminense's attacking options and impacting goal scoring potential.
Fluminense's consistent scoring streak
Fluminense has scored in their last 5 away games, showing strong offensive momentum despite missing key players.
The context
In the regular season's seventh round, Vasco DA Gama sit 14th with 35 points from 29 games, while Fluminense hold a much healthier third place with 51 points. Despite Fluminense's superior goal difference and league position, Vasco's home form and midfield scoring prowess could prove decisive.
Key insights
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco's midfielder A. Gómez is a key goal threat with 5 goals this season, providing crucial scoring from midfield.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 24 appearances, 0.21 goals/game
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
Thiago Mendes offers consistent goal contributions and leadership, adding 4 goals this season.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 25 appearances, 0.16 goals/game
Hulk
Fluminense
Hulk remains Fluminense's main attacking threat with 6 goals in 10 appearances, despite limited game time.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 10 appearances, 0.6 goals/game
J. Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
Defender J. Rodríguez supports the attack well with 4 assists, enhancing Vasco's offensive options.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 19 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Analysis
Fluminense have been consistent scorers away from home, netting in their last five away matches. However, they are missing their top scorer John Kennedy due to a knee injury, which significantly hampers their attacking threat. Vasco DA Gama's midfield duo, A. Gómez and Thiago Mendes, have been reliable goal contributors, offering multiple scoring options. Defensively, Vasco's fullbacks, including J. Rodríguez and Cuiabano, add attacking impetus with their assist contributions. Fluminense's key attacker Hulk remains a threat with six goals in ten appearances, but Vasco's balanced attack and defensive support should tip the scales.
Key facts
- 1.Vasco DA Gama are 14th in the league with 35 points from 29 games (W9 D8 L12).
- 2.Fluminense hold 3rd place with 51 points from 29 games (W14 D9 L6).
- 3.Fluminense have a superior goal difference of +18 compared to Vasco DA Gama.
- 4.John Kennedy, Fluminense's top scorer with 9 goals, is out with a knee injury.
- 5.Vasco's midfielders A. Gómez and Thiago Mendes have scored 5 and 4 goals respectively this season.
- 6.Fluminense's Hulk has scored 6 goals in 10 appearances, showing strong form.
- 7.Vasco's defenders J. Rodríguez and Cuiabano contribute significantly to assists.
Prediction
We anticipate Vasco DA Gama to overturn an early deficit and dominate the second half, securing a 4-1 victory. The halftime scoreline of 2-0 in favour of Vasco aligns with the expected momentum shift, with a total of four cards likely to keep the game lively but fair.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Fluminense
The verdict
Vasco DA Gama's blend of midfield goals and defensive support, combined with Fluminense's injury woes, sets the stage for a confident home win. Expect a spirited performance from Vasco to delight their fans with a convincing 4-1 scoreline.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:07 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Canobbio
Assist: Acosta
Saldivia
Yellow Card
Moura
Paulo Henrique
Martinelli
Thiago Mendes
Yellow Card
Hércules
Assist: Acosta
Nuno Moreira
Gómez
Acosta
John Kennedy
David
Nuno Moreira
Savarino
Xavier
Spinelli
Assist: Cuiabano
Thiago Mendes
Assist: Rojas
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 7DavidF
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 10J. RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 98JPM
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3JemmesD
- 4IgnacioD
- 6RenêD
- 8MartinelliM
- 9John KennedyF
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 32L. AcostaM
- 35HérculesM
Substitutes
- 7Y. SoteldoF
- 10PH GansoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 19R. CastilloF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 25AlissonM
- 29J. MillánD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 90K. SernaF
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuno Moreira | M | 80 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cuiabano | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| David | F | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Moura | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Rojas | F | 45 | 8.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | 21 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hércules | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 69 | 7.0 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 1/5 |
| Jefferson Savarino | M | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Fábio | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 69 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 3/6 |
| Ignácio | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier(C) | D | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Jemmes | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Júlio Fidelis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alisson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Millán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ganso | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vasco DA Gama to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 4–1 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 95% chance of winning, Fluminense a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.