Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama stuns Cruzeiro with commanding win
A confident home display sees Vasco DA Gama take a 3-1 victory against the odds.
Vasco DA Gama overturned expectations with a solid 3-1 victory over Cruzeiro in Serie A. Tchê Tchê and Lucas Freitas put the hosts ahead before David sealed the win deep into stoppage time, despite a late consolation from Felipe Morais for Cruzeiro. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win, proving the home side's dominance on the day.
Outcome probability
As the Brazilian Serie A season rolls on, Vasco DA Gama face Cruzeiro in what promises to be a tightly contested encounter. Both teams have had their moments, but recent form and league standings suggest Cruzeiro might just have the edge.
Match factors
Cruzeiro's attacking midfield strength
Cruzeiro's Matheus Pereira and Christian provide strong goal and assist threat from midfield, likely to challenge Vasco's defense
Kaio Jorge's scoring form
Kaio Jorge leads Cruzeiro with 6 goals in 17 games, showing strong finishing and key role in attack
Vasco DA Gama's Gómez consistent scoring
Andrés Gómez has 4 goals this season with recent scoring in last 10 games, providing attacking spark
Vasco DA Gama missing Brenner
Brenner, a key attacker, is confirmed out, reducing Vasco's offensive options and increasing reliance on midfield goals
Defensive stability from Cruzeiro's Robert Renan
Robert Renan's strong defensive stats and recent high ratings bolster Cruzeiro's backline against Vasco's attack
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's 25th round. Vasco DA Gama sit 19th with 22 points from 22 games, struggling to find consistency. Cruzeiro, on the other hand, are comfortably placed 5th with 39 points from 24 games, boasting a significantly better goal difference and points-per-game ratio. Historically, their head-to-head record is fairly balanced with 6 wins for Vasco, 7 for Cruzeiro, and 7 draws in 20 meetings.
Key insights
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira's 5 goals this season and recent scoring form make him a key attacking threat likely to challenge Vasco's defence.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 20 appearances, 0.25 goals/game
Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
Kaio Jorge leads Cruzeiro with 6 goals in 17 games, showing strong finishing and a key role in attack.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 17 appearances, 0.35 goals/game
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Andrés Gómez provides attacking spark with 4 goals this season, contributing consistently despite the team's struggles.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 19 appearances, 0.21 goals/game
- R
Robert Renan
Cruzeiro
Robert Renan's strong defensive stats and recent high ratings bolster Cruzeiro's backline against Vasco's attack.
Serie A 26/27High recent match ratings and strong tackling
Analysis
Cruzeiro's midfield dynamism, led by Matheus Pereira and Christian, poses a significant threat to Vasco's defence. Pereira's 5 goals this season and Christian's physical presence could exploit Vasco's vulnerabilities. Up front, Kaio Jorge's 6 goals in 17 appearances make him a key player to watch, likely to continue his scoring form. Vasco's Andrés Gómez offers some attacking spark with 4 goals, but the absence of Brenner due to injury weakens their offensive options. Defensively, Cruzeiro's Robert Renan provides stability, which could be crucial in maintaining their lead.
Key facts
- 1.Cruzeiro are 5th in the league with 39 points from 24 games; Vasco DA Gama are 19th with 22 points from 22 games.
- 2.Cruzeiro have a superior goal difference by 12 goals compared to Vasco DA Gama this season.
- 3.Kaio Jorge is Cruzeiro's top scorer with 6 goals in 17 appearances.
- 4.Andrés Gómez has scored 4 goals for Vasco DA Gama this season, providing key attacking threat.
- 5.Vasco DA Gama's Brenner is confirmed out, reducing their offensive options.
- 6.Cruzeiro's Robert Renan is a defensive stalwart with strong recent performances.
- 7.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 1-2 in favour of Cruzeiro.
- 8.In 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro have a slight edge with 7 wins to Vasco's 6, with 7 draws.
Prediction
The prediction leans strongly towards an away win for Cruzeiro, with a likely halftime score of 0-1 and a fulltime result of 1-2. The match is expected to be competitive, but Cruzeiro's superior form and goal-scoring capabilities should see them edge out Vasco DA Gama.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Cruzeiro
The verdict
In summary, while Vasco DA Gama will fight hard on home turf, Cruzeiro's consistent performances and key player contributions make them favourites to secure all three points in this encounter.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
João Marcelo
Yellow Card
Adson
Yellow Card
Tchê Tchê
Freitas
Assist: Piton
João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
Rodríguez
Adson
Colidio
Sosa
Kenji
Zé Lucas
Tchê Tchê
Villareal
Gómez
David
Assist: Ramon Rique
Freitas
Yellow Card
Felipe Morais
Assist: Matheus Pereira
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +4 | 39 |
| 16 |  Gremio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 28 |
| 17 |  Vasco DA Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 28 |
| 18 |  Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | -5 | 28 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 5S. SosaM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 9F. ColidioF
- 11A. GómezM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 28AdsonM
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 7DavidF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 80Bruno AndreD
- 82AvellarD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Zé LucasM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 12WilliamD
- 22N. VillarealF
- 27G. RojasD
- 34JonathanD
- 43João MarceloD
- 67João Gabriel e Costa CescoM
- 70KenjiM
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 97L. RodríguezM
Substitutes
- 1CássioG
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11MarquinhosF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 20Wesley GassovaF
- 23FágnerD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 38Felipe MoraisM
- 94WandersonF
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Piton | D | 93 | 9.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | 1/1 |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 85 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 93 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 93 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 0/1 |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 85 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/6 |
| Santiago Sosa | M | 79 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/5 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Facundo Colidio | F | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 5 | 3 | — | 1/4 |
| Adson | M | 70 | 5.7 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Avellar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno André Azevedo Ribeiro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 8 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| David | F | 14 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Cauan Barros | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Marcelo | D | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Zé Lucas | M | 79 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Costa | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Luciano Rodríguez | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Kaique Kenji | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Néiser Villarreal | F | 85 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| William Furtado(C) | D | 93 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Gabriel Rojas | D | 93 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marquinhos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fagner | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cássio | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Wesley | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Lucas Silva | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Morais | M | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Wanderson | F | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cruzeiro to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Cruzeiro.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 7% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.