Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama edge Corinthians in five-goal thriller
M. Hinestroza's brace seals a dramatic 3-2 victory for Vasco DA Gama.
Vasco DA Gama secured a narrow 3-2 win over Corinthians in a match full of twists. J. Rodríguez opened the scoring before Corinthians fought back with goals from Gustavo Henrique and Matheus Bidu early in the second half. However, M. Hinestroza's late brace, including a 90th-minute winner, clinched the victory for Vasco DA Gama. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, though the scoreline was far closer than the anticipated 4-0 rout.
Outcome probability
Vasco DA Gama and Corinthians face off in a regular season clash where the home side looks poised to make a statement. Both teams have struggled this season, but Vasco's recent home performances and attacking midfielders give them the edge.
Match factors
Vasco DA Gama's Midfield Scoring Threat
Midfielders Gómez and Colidio have strong scoring rates, likely to exploit Corinthians' defense
Corinthians' Assist Leader Garro's Creativity
Garro leads Corinthians with 6 assists, key to creating chances against Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama's Recent Home Scoring Form
Vasco DA Gama has scored in 3 of last 5 home games, supporting predicted 4-0 win
Defensive Stability from Corinthians' Matheus Bidu
Bidu's strong defensive stats and recent form could limit Vasco's attackers
Full Availability Boosts Team Strength
No confirmed injuries for either team, allowing full-strength lineups and tactical plans
The context
In their 20 previous meetings, Corinthians have dominated with 14 wins to Vasco's single victory, but current league standings tell a different story. Vasco sit 15th with 35 points, just above Corinthians in 16th with 32 points, both fighting to climb out of the lower reaches of the table.
Key insights
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Midfielder Gómez boasts an above-average goal rate and is a key contributor in recent home matches, making him a major threat.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 26 appearances, 0.19 goals/game
F. Colidio
Vasco DA Gama
Colidio has a high goal per game ratio and a recent scoring streak, proving effective in home matches.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 9 appearances, 0.33 goals/game
R. Garro
Corinthians
Garro leads Corinthians with 6 assists, providing creative spark and key chance creation.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 27 appearances, 0.22 assists/game
- M
Matheus Bidu
Corinthians
Bidu's strong defensive stats and recent form could help limit Vasco's attackers, though it may not be enough.
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama's midfielders, particularly A. Gómez and F. Colidio, have been key contributors this season, combining goal-scoring prowess with consistent form at home. Corinthians, while historically strong, have struggled recently and rely heavily on creative midfielder R. Garro for assists. Defensive efforts from Matheus Bidu may help Corinthians limit damage, but Vasco's attacking momentum and home advantage are likely to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.Corinthians have won 14 of 20 meetings against Vasco DA Gama, with 5 draws and 1 Vasco win.
- 2.Vasco DA Gama are 15th in the league with 35 points from 30 games (9 wins, 8 draws, 13 losses).
- 3.Corinthians sit 16th with 32 points from 30 games (8 wins, 8 draws, 14 losses).
- 4.Average goals in head-to-head matches is 2.6, but a high-scoring game is predicted here.
- 5.Vasco DA Gama have scored in 3 of their last 5 home games this season.
- 6.No confirmed injuries for either team, allowing full-strength lineups.
Prediction
Expect Vasco DA Gama to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and extending their dominance to a 4-0 fulltime victory. The match should feature a moderate level of discipline with around four cards expected, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Corinthians
The verdict
This fixture offers Vasco DA Gama a chance to assert themselves and climb the table with a convincing win. Corinthians will need to regroup quickly after a tough defeat, but for now, the home side's attacking threat and recent form make them the clear favourites.
Prediction generated 20 Oct 2026, 01:07 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Garro
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Gómez
Gustavo Henrique
Assist: Breno
Bidu
Assist: Angileri
Dieguinho
Garro
Sosa
Breno
Cuiabano
Colidio
Duarte
Yuri Alberto
Bidu
Angileri
Yellow Card
Hinestroza
Hinestroza
Yellow Card
Lingard
Yellow Card
Hinestroza
Assist: David
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 5S. SosaM
- 9F. ColidioM
- 11A. GómezM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
Substitutes
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 7DavidF
- 8JairM
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Corinthians
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 7BrenoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduM
- 26F. AngileriD
- 49AndreM
- 61DieguinhoM
Substitutes
- 4João PedroD
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 20P. MilansD
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 29AllanM
- 35CharlesM
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 46HugoD
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 55I. MachadoD
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 77J. LingardM
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hinestroza | F | 53 | 9.6 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 3/3 |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 6 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/2 |
| David | F | 15 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Saldivia | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Lescano | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| A. Gómez | M | 37 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Piton | D | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Colidio | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Bruno Duarte | F | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Sosa | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cuiabano | D | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 23 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Pereira | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jair | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Bidu | M | 77 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Kaio César | F | 31 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| André Ramalho | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Inácio | F | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Breno | M | 67 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Matheuzinho | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 59 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Charles | M | 23 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 23 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andre | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| J. Lingard | M | 13 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Angileri | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| R. Garro | M | 67 | 5.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| P. Milans | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Machado | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê Camargo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vasco DA Gama to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 4–0 Corinthians.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 95% chance of winning, Corinthians a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.