Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc
Match recap
Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Rodríguez scored for Vasco DA Gama; Jean Carlos replied for Chapecoense-sc. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 4.77 for Vasco DA Gama versus 0.32 for Chapecoense-sc. Vasco DA Gama sit 13th in the Serie A table while Chapecoense-sc are 20th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Vasco DA Gama win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc face off in the second round of the regular season, with Vasco DA Gama expected to assert their dominance. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes this season, and the stage is set for a one-sided affair.
Match factors
Vasco DA Gama's midfield dominance
Vasco's midfielders Gómez and Thiago Mendes have superior scoring and passing stats compared to Chapecoense's midfield, likely controlling game tempo
Vasco DA Gama's home scoring form
Vasco averages 1.4 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 4-0 scoreline
Chapecoense's defensive struggles
Chapecoense has conceded in all last 5 matches, indicating defensive vulnerability against strong attacks
Chapecoense missing key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira
Rafael Carvalheira is confirmed out, weakening Chapecoense's midfield creativity and defensive balance
The context
Vasco DA Gama currently sit 14th in the league with 35 points from 29 games, while Chapecoense-sc are struggling down in 20th with just 18 points from 28 matches. The goal difference tells a similar story, with Vasco DA Gama at -6 compared to Chapecoense-sc's -28, highlighting the defensive frailties of the visitors.
Key insights
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Leads team scoring with 5 goals, showing strong recent home form and key playmaking role.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 24 apps, 0.21 goals/game
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
Consistent starter with 4 goals, captain and midfield leader providing stability and attacking threat.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 25 apps, 0.16 goals/game
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Top scorer for Chapecoense with 3 goals, but recent defensive struggles limit impact.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 24 apps, 0.13 goals/game
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama's midfield duo, A. Gómez and Thiago Mendes, have been instrumental this season, combining goal-scoring ability with creative playmaking. Gómez leads the team with 5 goals, showing strong form at home, while Thiago Mendes adds consistency and leadership. Chapecoense-sc, on the other hand, have been conceding in every match recently and are missing key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira, which weakens their midfield balance. Vasco's home scoring average of 1.4 goals per game supports the prediction of a comfortable 4-0 win.
Key facts
- 1.Vasco DA Gama are 14th in the league with 35 points from 29 games (W9 D8 L12).
- 2.Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 18 points from 28 games (W3 D9 L16).
- 3.Vasco DA Gama have a better goal difference (-6) than Chapecoense-sc (-28).
- 4.Vasco DA Gama average 1.4 goals per home game this season.
- 5.Chapecoense-sc have conceded in all of their last 5 matches.
- 6.Rafael Carvalheira is out, weakening Chapecoense-sc's midfield.
- 7.A. Gómez leads Vasco DA Gama with 5 goals this season.
- 8.Thiago Mendes is a key midfield presence with 4 goals and leadership qualities.
Prediction
Expect Vasco DA Gama to take control early, likely leading 2-0 by halftime and extending their advantage to a 4-0 victory by fulltime. The visitors' defensive struggles and absence of key players make it difficult for them to mount a challenge, while Vasco's attacking midfielders are poised to exploit these weaknesses.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Chapecoense-sc
The verdict
In summary, Vasco DA Gama's superior form, home advantage, and stronger squad depth point towards a comprehensive win. Chapecoense-sc will need to tighten up defensively and find creative solutions in midfield if they hope to avoid a heavy defeat in this encounter.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Giovanni Augusto
Rodríguez
Assist: Gómez
Italo
Camilo
Brenner
Bruno Leonardo
Piton
Carvalheira
Nuno Moreira
Thiago Mendes
Coutinho
Jean Carlos
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10Philippe CoutinhoM
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 20BrennerF
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Substitutes
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 7DavidF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 19GBF
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 28AdsonF
- 29J. RojasF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 60V. JoaoF
- 98JPM
Chapecoense-sc
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 12Léo VieiraG
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 26EvertonM
- 27CamiloM
- 31GarcezF
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 37W. ClarM
- 77ItaloF
- 99Rafael CarvalheiraM
Substitutes
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 5João VitorM
- 7MarcinhoF
- 19David Antunes
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 35Vinicius BalieiroM
- 70RubensM
- 90MailsonF
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Gómez | M | 90 | 8.5 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/4 |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 80 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 80 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2/3 |
| Lucas Piton | D | 79 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Philippe Coutinho(C) | M | 86 | 7.0 | — | — | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1/1 |
| Brenner | F | 69 | 6.9 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Cauan Barros | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Souza | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | F | 21 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| João Vitor Silva | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hugo Moura | M | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Rojas | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 10.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Caetano | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Doma | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Camilo | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Walter Clar | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Maurício Garcez | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Bruno Leonardo(C) | D | 70 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Italo | F | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Everton | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Giovanni Augusto | F | 54 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Carvalheira | M | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mailson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Vinícius | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Balieiro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Vitor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Carlos | M | 21 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Marcinho | F | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Rubens Tadeu | M | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Higor Meritão | M | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| David | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vasco DA Gama to win against Chapecoense-sc.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 4–0 Chapecoense-sc.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 95% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.