Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia
Match recap
Bahia beat Vasco DA Gama 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Juba scored for Bahia. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.49 for Vasco DA Gama versus 0.37 for Bahia. Vasco DA Gama sit 13th in the Serie A table while Bahia are 7th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Vasco DA Gama win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
This clash between Vasco DA Gama and Bahia promises an entertaining encounter, with Vasco expected to leverage their attacking strengths to overcome a solid Bahia side.
Match factors
Vasco's attacking midfield strength
Andrés Gómez leads Vasco's scoring with 5 goals, providing a key attacking outlet in midfield
Bahia's defender Luciano Juba as scoring threat
Luciano Juba is an unusually prolific defender with 9 goals, posing set-piece danger
Vasco's top assister J. Rodríguez excels from defense
J. Rodríguez has 4 assists, above average for defenders, enhancing Vasco's chance creation
Thiago Mendes consistent form and leadership
Thiago Mendes is a regular starter and captain with 4 goals, showing steady offensive contributions
Bahia missing key goalkeeper and midfielder
Bahia's confirmed out players include goalkeeper Léo Vieira and midfielder N. Acevedo, weakening defense and midfield
The context
Both teams come into this fixture with contrasting league positions: Vasco DA Gama sit 14th with 35 points, while Bahia are comfortably placed 6th with 46 points. Historically, Bahia have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but Vasco's home form and attacking midfield prowess could tip the scales.
Key insights
Andrés Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Top scorer for Vasco with 5 goals, providing a key attacking outlet in midfield.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 24 appearances, 0.21 goals/game
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Leading scorer for Bahia with 9 goals, posing a significant threat on set pieces.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 25 appearances, 0.36 goals/game
J. Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
Top assister for Vasco with 4 assists, enhancing chance creation from defence.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 19 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
Consistent starter and captain with 4 goals, providing steady offensive contributions.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 25 appearances, 0.16 goals/game
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama's attacking midfielder Andrés Gómez leads the charge with 5 goals this season, providing a key offensive outlet. Their top assister, J. Rodríguez, contributes significantly from defence with 4 assists, enhancing chance creation. Bahia's main threat comes from defender Luciano Juba, an unusually prolific scorer with 9 goals, particularly dangerous on set pieces. However, Bahia face setbacks with key goalkeeper Léo Vieira and midfielder N. Acevedo ruled out, potentially weakening their defensive and midfield stability.
Key facts
- 1.Vasco DA Gama are ranked 14th with 35 points from 29 games (W9 D8 L12).
- 2.Bahia hold 6th place with 46 points from 29 games (W12 D10 L7).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Bahia have won 11, Vasco DA Gama 6, with 3 draws.
- 4.Luciano Juba is Bahia's leading scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 5.Andrés Gómez leads Vasco DA Gama with 5 goals this season.
- 6.J. Rodríguez is Vasco's top assister with 4 assists.
- 7.Bahia are missing key goalkeeper Léo Vieira and midfielder N. Acevedo.
- 8.The predicted total cards count for the match is 4.
Prediction
The prediction favours a Vasco DA Gama home win with a 3-1 scoreline. The expected halftime lead is 2-0, consistent with their attacking form and Bahia's injury concerns. A total of 4 cards is anticipated, reflecting a moderately disciplined contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Bahia
The verdict
In summary, Vasco DA Gama's attacking midfield strength and home advantage should see them through to a confident 3-1 victory over Bahia, who will struggle to contain their hosts without key players.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kanu
Yellow Card
Juba
Assist: Éverton Ribeiro
Olivera
Yellow Card
Gómez
Yellow Card
Acevedo
Yellow Card
Ademir
Willian José
Kanu
Piton
Nuno Moreira
Brenner
Jean Lucas
Thiago Mendes
Yellow Card
Thiago Mendes
Coutinho
Acevedo
Rodríguez
Yellow Card
Cauan Barros
Yellow Card
Caio Alexandre
Yellow Card
Ronaldo
Yellow Card
Paulo Henrique
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 10Philippe CoutinhoM
- 11A. GómezM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 20BrennerF
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Substitutes
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 7DavidF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 19GBF
- 28AdsonF
- 29J. RojasF
- 60V. JoaoF
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 98JPM
Bahia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 4KanuD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 7AdemirM
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 21S. RamosD
- 26N. AcevedoM
- 31Roman GomezD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraM
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 14ErickM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 19Caio AlexandreM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 25IagoD
- 27EveraldoF
- 34João PauloG
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 57Çağatay YılmazM
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cauan Barros | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Andrés Gómez | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3/11 |
| Brenner | F | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Philippe Coutinho(C) | M | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| João Vitor Silva | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 27 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| Gabriel Souza | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Johan Rojas | F | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Ronaldo | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Ademir | M | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kanu | D | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Olivera | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Nicolás Acevedo | M | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Willian José | F | 58 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mateo Sanabria | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê Furquim | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | 32 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Erick Pulga | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vasco DA Gama to win against Bahia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 3–1 Bahia.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Bahia?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 95% chance of winning, Bahia a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.