Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Leroux scored for San Jose Earthquakes. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.98 for Vancouver Whitecaps versus 0.66 for San Jose Earthquakes. Vancouver Whitecaps sit 1st in the Major League Soccer table while San Jose Earthquakes are 4th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Vancouver Whitecaps win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
The upcoming clash between Vancouver Whitecaps and San Jose Earthquakes promises to be a nail-biter, with both sides boasting strong attacking credentials. Fans can expect a lively encounter with goals aplenty as these two teams battle it out in the regular season.
Match factors
Vancouver's Brian White leads MLS scoring
Brian White's 17 goals this season and strong home form give Vancouver a clear attacking edge.
San Jose's Niko Tsakiris excels in assists
Tsakiris leads San Jose with 7 assists, showing creative threat especially in recent away matches.
Vancouver missing Thomas Müller reduces creative options
Müller is out with muscle injury, removing a key playmaker and assist provider from Vancouver's lineup.
Both teams on positive scoring streaks
Both Vancouver and San Jose have scored in their last 5 matches, indicating attacking momentum.
San Jose's Preston Judd is a consistent goal threat
Judd's 15 goals and recent form make him a key target against Vancouver's defense.
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's fifth round, where Vancouver currently sits top of the league, boasting a superior goal difference and points tally compared to San Jose, who are placed fourth. Historically, San Jose have a slight edge in head-to-head wins, but recent form and home advantage could tilt the scales.
Key insights
Brian White
Vancouver Whitecaps
Brian White's 17 goals this season and strong home form give Vancouver a clear attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/2717 goals in 26 apps, 0.65 goals/game
Niko Tsakiris
San Jose Earthquakes
Tsakiris leads San Jose with 7 assists, showing creative threat especially in recent away matches.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 19 apps, 0.37 assists/game
Beau Leroux
San Jose Earthquakes
Creative midfielder with 7 assists and strong recent form, key to San Jose's attacking transitions.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 26 apps, 0.27 assists/game
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Judd's 15 goals and recent form make him a key target against Vancouver's defense.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 25 apps, 0.6 goals/game
Analysis
Vancouver's Brian White leads the league scoring charts with 17 goals, demonstrating clinical finishing especially at home. San Jose's Preston Judd is no slouch either, with 15 goals and strong recent form. Creative forces like Vancouver's Oliver Love Larraz and San Jose's Niko Tsakiris add to the attacking threat. Vancouver's absence of Thomas Müller due to injury might be a slight creative setback, but their overall attacking depth remains formidable. Both teams have been consistent goal scorers in recent matches, setting the stage for an entertaining contest.
Key facts
- 1.Vancouver Whitecaps currently top the league with 50 points from 27 games.
- 2.San Jose Earthquakes are fourth with 46 points from 28 games.
- 3.Brian White leads the league with 17 goals this season.
- 4.Preston Judd is San Jose's top scorer with 15 goals.
- 5.Vancouver has a significantly better goal difference than San Jose this season.
- 6.In 20 head-to-head meetings, San Jose have won 9 times, Vancouver 6, with 5 draws.
- 7.Beau Leroux scored in the last fixture and is a key creative player for San Jose.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for Vancouver Whitecaps with a 3-2 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-1, reflecting a balanced start before Vancouver pulls ahead in the second half. The match is likely to feature a few cards, with three being the modal number, indicating a competitive but fair game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vancouver Whitecaps
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
Expect a thrilling encounter with Vancouver Whitecaps narrowly overcoming San Jose Earthquakes. Key players like Brian White and Preston Judd will be pivotal, and the match should provide plenty of excitement for neutrals and fans alike.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:21 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Werner
Yellow Card
Leroux
Vieira
Sabaly
Jones
Yellow Card
Jones
Ricketts
Ngando
Yellow Card
Ngando
Jackson
Larraz
Leroux
Bouda
Gherasimencov
Judd
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
Match Statistics
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 6R. PrisoD
- 7C. SabalyM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 18É. OcampoD
- 22A. JacksonM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 26J. NgandoM
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 33T. BlackmonD
Substitutes
- 2M. LabordaD
- 13T. MüllerF
- 15S. SchonlauD
- 16S. BerhalterM
- 17K. CabreraF
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 59J. BadwalM
San Jose Earthquakes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2J. RickettsM
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 24D. JonesD
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 42DanielG
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 11T. WernerF
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 40J. GónzalezM
- 87Vítor CostaD
Vancouver Whitecaps
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édier Ocampo | D | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Ralph Priso | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Emmanuel Sabbi | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4/6 |
| Tristan Blackmon | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Oliver Larraz | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jean-Claude Ngando | M | 66 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Brian White | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 5 | 3 | — | — |
| Yohei Takaoka(C) | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aziel Jackson | M | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mihail Gherasimencov | D | 88 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tate Johnson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaac Boehmer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Schonlau | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathías Laborda | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan Elloumi | F | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeevan Badwal | M | 24 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Müller | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Berhalter | M | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kenji Cabrera | F | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel(C) | G | 90 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Munie | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 82 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Reid Roberts | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Benjamin Kikanović | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| DeJuan Jones | D | 54 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Niko Tsakiris | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ronaldo Vieira | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jamar Ricketts | M | 54 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Preston Judd | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ousseni Bouda | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Paul Marie | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earl Edwards Jr. | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Skahan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Fernandez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Harkes | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dave Romney | D | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Gonzalez | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Costa | D | 36 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Timo Werner | F | 36 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vancouver Whitecaps to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 San Jose Earthquakes.
- What were the win probabilities for Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's model gave Vancouver Whitecaps a 49% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 49% confidence — a medium-confidence call.