Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo sneak past Vancouver Whitecaps
F. Negri's first-half strike secures a narrow away win.
Houston Dynamo edged out Vancouver Whitecaps 1-0 thanks to F. Negri's goal in the 34th minute. Despite high confidence in a Vancouver win, Fipster's prediction was overturned as the Dynamo held firm to claim all three points on the road.
Outcome probability
As the regular season heats up, Vancouver Whitecaps and Houston Dynamo face off in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Both teams sit near the top of the league table, making this match a crucial test of their title credentials.
Match factors
Vancouver's attacking trio in strong form
B. White, S. Berhalter, and T. Müller show consistent scoring and assist contributions, boosting home attack
Guilherme leads Houston's offense
Guilherme's 11 goals and 5 assists make him the focal point of Houston's attack, posing a key threat
Doubt over Bruno Quiñonez's availability
Bruno Quiñonez is doubtful due to injury, capping his scoring and assist probability
Vancouver's superior home scoring rate
Vancouver averages 2.44 goals per home game, well above Houston's 1.3 home average, favoring the home side
Houston's consistent scoring streak
Houston has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum despite defensive vulnerabilities
The context
Houston Dynamo currently lead the league with 35 points from 19 games, just one point ahead of Vancouver Whitecaps who have 34 points from 17 games. Their head-to-head record is finely balanced with Houston holding a slight edge in wins, but the Whitecaps boast a significantly better goal difference, hinting at a more potent attack and solid defence.
Key insights
B. White
Vancouver Whitecaps
Top scorer with 10 goals in 17 games, showing strong recent form and key home performances.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 17 appearances, 0.59 goals/game
S. Berhalter
Vancouver Whitecaps
Creative midfielder with 6 goals and 4 assists, contributing significantly to Vancouver's attacking play.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals and 4 assists in 14 appearances
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Leading scorer and playmaker with 11 goals and 5 assists, central to Houston's offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 5 assists in 18 appearances
Analysis
The teams have met 20 times previously, with an almost even split of wins and draws, and an average of 3 goals per match, suggesting an open and entertaining game. Vancouver's attacking trio, led by B. White who has netted 10 goals this season, is in fine form, especially at home where they average 2.44 goals per game. Houston's Guilherme is a constant threat with 11 goals and 5 assists, but the Dynamo's modest goal difference of +4 compared to Vancouver's +21 indicates the visitors may struggle to contain the Whitecaps' offensive firepower.
Key facts
- 1.Vancouver Whitecaps have a better goal difference (+21) than Houston Dynamo (+4) this season.
- 2.Houston Dynamo lead the league with 35 points, just one ahead of Vancouver Whitecaps' 34 points.
- 3.Head-to-head record is balanced: Vancouver 6 wins, Houston 7 wins, 7 draws in 20 matches.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 goals, indicating a moderately high scoring trend.
- 5.Vancouver averages 2.44 goals per home game, significantly higher than Houston's 1.3 home average.
- 6.B. White is Vancouver's top scorer with 10 goals in 17 games.
- 7.Guilherme leads Houston's attack with 11 goals and 5 assists this season.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
We expect Vancouver Whitecaps to take an early lead, going into halftime 1-0 up. Houston Dynamo will respond, but the home side's attacking consistency should see them clinch a 2-1 victory. The match is also likely to be competitive in discipline, with around four cards expected.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vancouver Whitecaps
Away — Houston Dynamo
The verdict
This fixture is set to be a classic battle between two top contenders. Vancouver's superior goal difference and home scoring prowess give them the edge, but Houston's resilience means the Whitecaps will need to stay sharp. Expect a closely fought game with moments of quality from key players on both sides.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cubas
Yellow Card
Negri
Resch
Yellow Card
Bouzat
Yellow Card
Sabaly
Goal Disallowed - Foul
Guilherme
Sabbi
Cubas
Herrera
Negri
Ennali
Johnson
Ocampo
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | +27 | 40 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | +4 | 38 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | +14 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 2M. LabordaD
- 7C. SabalyM
- 8O. LarrazM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 18É. OcampoD
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 20A. CubasM
- 25R. GauldM
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 33T. BlackmonD
Substitutes
- 3S. AdekugbeD
- 6R. PrisoM
- 13T. MüllerF
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 26J. NgandoM
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 41N. DjordjevicD
- 97Liam MackenzieM
Houston Dynamo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 6ArturM
- 8J. McGlynnM
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 20GuilhermeM
- 21F. NegriD
- 30A. BouzatM
- 31J. BondG
- 34A. ReschD
Substitutes
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 4M. SaracchiD
- 9O. LingrM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 28E. SviatchenkoD
Vancouver Whitecaps
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathías Laborda | D | 94 | 8.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Tristan Blackmon | D | 94 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Gauld(C) | M | 94 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Oliver Larraz | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| Tate Johnson | D | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Édier Ocampo | D | 88 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Rayan Elloumi | F | 94 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Yohei Takaoka | G | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Sabbi | M | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/5 |
| Andrés Cubas | M | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nikola Djordjevic | D | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean-Claude Ngando | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaac Boehmer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liam MacKenzie | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mihail Gherasimencov | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Adekugbe | D | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Müller | F | 49 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Ralph Priso | M | 20 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Quiñonez | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franco Negri | D | 75 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| Artur(C) | M | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Halter | D | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Bond | G | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Héctor Herrera | M | 75 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Mateusz Bogusz | F | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Jack McGlynn | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Guilherme | M | 70 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 5/8 |
| Agustín Bouzat | M | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Agustin Resch | D | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lawrence Ennali | D | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ibrahim Aliyu | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blake Gillingham | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Sviatchenko | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ondrej Lingr | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antônio Carlos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Saracchi | D | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Duane Holmes | M | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Duncan McGuire | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |