Valencia vs Villarreal
Villarreal snatch late victory at Valencia
Pepelu's penalty gave Valencia hope, but Villarreal's resilience paid off with a stoppage-time winner.
Valencia took the lead through Pepelu's penalty just before half-time, but Villarreal fought back with A. Freeman equalising after the break. The visitors sealed the win with G. Mikautadze's dramatic goal deep into stoppage time, securing a 2-1 victory. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction for an away win proved spot on.
Outcome probability
Valencia and Villarreal face off in what promises to be a closely contested La Liga fixture. Both teams have had their struggles this season, but Villarreal's slightly better form and goal difference suggest they might just have the edge.
Match factors
Valencia missing key attackers and defenders
Valencia confirmed out include attackers Diego López, U. Sadiq, Luis Rioja and defenders Copete, D. Foulquier, weakening attack and defense
Villarreal's Renato Veiga excels in passing
Renato Veiga averages 83.5 passes per game with 91% accuracy, far above league defender average, boosting Villarreal's build-up play
Alberto Moleiro's recent attacking form
Moleiro rated 9.45 recently with a goal and 2 assists, indicating strong creative form for Villarreal
Valencia's Guido Rodríguez strong in midfield defense
Rodríguez's tackling and duel win rates exceed league averages, key to disrupting Villarreal's midfield
Villarreal's defensive solidity challenged by Freeman
Freeman's 15 tackles and 66.7% duel win rate in 7 games highlight defensive reliability against Valencia attack
The context
Valencia sit 19th in the league with 5 points from 8 games, struggling to find consistency with just one win so far. Villarreal are a bit more comfortable in 11th place with 8 points, buoyed by a superior goal difference. Both sides will be eager to climb the table as the season progresses.
Key insights
- R
Renato Veiga
Villarreal
Veiga's exceptional passing boosts Villarreal's build-up play significantly.
La Liga 26/2783.5 passes per game at 91% accuracy
- A
Alberto Moleiro
Villarreal
Moleiro's recent attacking form is a key creative asset for Villarreal.
La Liga 26/279.45 match rating with 1 goal and 2 assists recently
- G
Guido Rodríguez
Valencia
Rodríguez's tackling and duel win rates are crucial for disrupting Villarreal's midfield.
La Liga 26/273.4 tackles per game and 60.7% duel win rate
- A
A. Freeman
Villarreal
Freeman's defensive reliability challenges Valencia's attack effectively.
La Liga 26/2715 tackles and 66.7% duel win rate in 7 games
Analysis
Villarreal's Renato Veiga stands out with exceptional passing stats, averaging 83.5 passes per game at 91% accuracy, which helps their build-up play. Alberto Moleiro's recent form is impressive, boasting a 9.45 match rating with a goal and two assists, providing creative spark. Valencia's Guido Rodríguez offers a strong midfield defensive presence, but the home side are missing key attackers and defenders, which could hamper their chances. Defensively, Villarreal's A. Freeman is reliable with 15 tackles and a 66.7% duel win rate, likely to challenge Valencia's attack effectively.
Key facts
- 1.Valencia are 19th with 5 points from 8 games (W1 D2 L5).
- 2.Villarreal are 11th with 8 points from 8 games (W2 D2 L4).
- 3.Villarreal have a significantly better goal difference than Valencia.
- 4.Renato Veiga averages 83.5 passes per game with 91% accuracy.
- 5.Alberto Moleiro recently rated 9.45 with a goal and 2 assists.
- 6.Valencia missing key attackers Diego López, U. Sadiq, Luis Rioja and defenders Copete, D. Foulquier.
- 7.Guido Rodríguez excels in midfield defence with 3.4 tackles per game.
- 8.A. Freeman has 15 tackles and a 66.7% duel win rate in 7 games.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Villarreal with a 2-1 scoreline. Villarreal are expected to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted halftime score of 0-1, and hold on despite a late response from Valencia. The match is likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Valencia
Away — Villarreal
The verdict
While Valencia will fight hard to improve their league standing, Villarreal's superior form and key player performances suggest they will come away with the points. Expect a tight game with moments of quality from both sides, but ultimately Villarreal to edge it 2-1.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 20:53 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Otorbi
Dani Raba
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Veiga
Yellow Card
Pepelu
Penalty
Pérez
Yellow Card
Buchanan
Yellow Card
Pablo Maffeo
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Yellow Card
Foyth
Akhomach
Pérez
Freeman
Assist: Cardona
Javi Guerra
Dani Raba
de Haas
Pablo Maffeo
Card upgrade confirmed
Gueye
Red Card
Moreno
Buchanan
Elliott
Red Card
Elliott
Yellow Card
Mikautadze
Assist: Moleiro
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Valencia
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 5César TárregaD
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 8Javi GuerraF
- 11Luis RiojaM
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 18PepeluM
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 27David OtorbiM
Substitutes
- 4M. DiakhabyD
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 10H. ElliottM
- 15A. DiengM
- 19Dani RabaF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 25K. van OevelenG
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 37Aimar BlázquezF
- 39R. SatoM
Villarreal
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3A. FreemanD
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 8J. FoythD
- 11Ilias AkhomachM
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 16C. MaciaM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 25P. GulácsiG
Substitutes
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 2Logan CostaD
- 5A. DiattaM
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 27N. El JmiliF
Valencia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Duro | F | 13 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| José Gayà | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Pepelu | M | 90 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| César Tárrega | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Rioja | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Javi Guerra | F | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Danjuma | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Ugrinic | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| J. de Haas | D | 77 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Otorbi | M | 14 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maffeo | D | 77 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Raba | F | 56 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| G. Rodríguez | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Arnau Martínez | D | 20 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Dimitrievski | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Elliott | M | 19 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Diakhaby | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dieng | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. van Oevelen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aimar Blázquez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sato | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aaron Mayol | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Villarreal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Mikautadze | F | 24 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Freeman | D | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| P. Gulácsi | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilias Akhomach | M | 65 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Sergi Cardona | D | 25 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Foyth | D | 65 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alberto Moleiro | M | 25 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Mouriño | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Buchanan | M | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gerard Moreno | F | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Pau Navarro | D | 3 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayoze Pérez | F | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Santi Comesaña | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Macia | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| P. Gueye | M | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | 6 | — | 2 | — |
| N. El Jmili | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Logan Costa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luíz Júnior | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén Gómez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Oluwaseyi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Diatta | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Valencia vs Villarreal?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Villarreal to win against Valencia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Valencia vs Villarreal?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Valencia 1–2 Villarreal.
- What were the win probabilities for Valencia vs Villarreal?
- Fipster's model gave Valencia a 20% chance of winning, Villarreal a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 59% confidence — a medium-confidence call.