Valencia vs Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad edge Valencia in five-goal thriller
A late strike from Barrenetxea seals a narrow win for the visitors.
Real Sociedad secured a 3-2 victory over Valencia in a closely contested La Liga encounter. L. Sučić opened the scoring for Sociedad before Aaron Mayol levelled for Valencia early in the second half. Carlos Soler's penalty restored the lead, and an own goal by Luken Beitia further tilted the balance. Barrenetxea's goal in stoppage time confirmed the win for Sociedad. Fipster's prediction of an away win was spot on, though the exact scoreline differed.
Outcome probability
Valencia and Real Sociedad face off in what promises to be a closely contested La Liga fixture. With Valencia languishing at the bottom of the table and Real Sociedad enjoying a steadier campaign, the visitors look to extend their advantage.
Match factors
Valencia's key attackers out injured
Valencia's top scorer Umar Sadiq is confirmed out, weakening their goal threat
Real Sociedad's midfielders lead scoring and assists
Sučić and Ochieng have strong goal and assist rates, boosting Real Sociedad's attack
Real Sociedad's defensive stalwarts to challenge Valencia's attack
Aramburu and Zubeldia's high tackle and interception rates could stifle Valencia's limited offense
Real Sociedad's away scoring form is strong
They scored in 2 of last 3 away matches, including 2 goals by Sučić
Valencia's defensive injury absences weaken backline
Multiple defenders including César Tárrega are out, increasing defensive vulnerability
The context
Valencia sit rock bottom with just one point from five games, struggling to find their rhythm. Meanwhile, Real Sociedad have accumulated seven points from six matches, showing more consistency and resilience. Historically, these sides have been evenly matched, but current form tells a different story.
Key insights
Luka Sučić
Real Sociedad
Top scorer for Real Sociedad with 2 goals in 6 games, including 2 goals in 2 away matches, showing strong away form.
La Liga 26/272 goals in 6 appearances, 77.3 avg mins/game
Job Nguono Ochieng
Real Sociedad
Key creative force with 2 assists in 3 games and strong recent away assist form, boosting Real Sociedad's attack.
La Liga 26/272 assists in 3 appearances
- J
J. Aramburu
Real Sociedad
Leads the team in tackles (3.5 per game) and interceptions (15 total), crucial for disrupting Valencia's attack.
La Liga 26/273.5 tackles per game, 15 interceptions total
- P
Pepelu
Valencia
Vital for Valencia's build-up play with exceptional passing accuracy (87-88%) and high pass volume (~49 per game).
La Liga 26/2787-88% passing accuracy, ~49 passes per game
Analysis
Real Sociedad's midfielders, particularly Luka Sučić and Job Nguono Ochieng, have been pivotal in their attacking play, combining goals and assists effectively. Valencia, on the other hand, are hampered by injuries to key attackers like Umar Sadiq and defensive absences, which weaken their ability to contain the visitors. Real Sociedad's defensive duo, including J. Aramburu, are expected to disrupt Valencia's limited offensive threats. The visitors' recent away scoring form adds further weight to their chances.
Key facts
- 1.Valencia are bottom of the league with 1 point from 5 games (W0 D1 L4).
- 2.Real Sociedad sit 12th with 7 points from 6 games (W2 D1 L3).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Valencia have 7 wins, Real Sociedad 6, with 7 draws.
- 4.Real Sociedad average 1.17 points per game, significantly higher than Valencia's 0.20.
- 5.Valencia's top scorer Umar Sadiq is out injured, weakening their attack.
- 6.Real Sociedad's Luka Sučić has scored 2 goals in 6 games, including 2 away goals.
- 7.Valencia's defense is weakened by multiple injuries, including to César Tárrega.
- 8.Real Sociedad's J. Aramburu leads the team in tackles and interceptions, key to disrupting Valencia.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 2-1 victory for Real Sociedad, with a halftime scoreline of 0-1. The match is expected to be competitive but ultimately decided by Real Sociedad's sharper attacking edge and Valencia's defensive vulnerabilities.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Valencia
No standout top scorers flagged for Valencia
Away — Real Sociedad
The verdict
Valencia will need to tighten up at the back and find some attacking spark to avoid defeat. However, Real Sociedad's current form and key player contributions suggest they will take all three points in this encounter.
Prediction generated 15 Sep 2026, 19:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
de Haas
Yellow Card
José Gayà
Yellow Card
Sučić
Assist: Ochieng
Ugrinic
Sučić
Yellow Card
Aaron Mayol
Assist: Duro
Oyarzabal
Ochieng
Gorrotxategi
Rodríguez
Gómez
Soler
Penalty
Duro
José Gayà
Beitia (OG)
Sučić
Danjuma
Barrenetxea
Assist: Soler
Óskarsson
Yellow Card
Óskarsson
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 |  Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Match Statistics
Valencia
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 7A. DanjumaM
- 8Javi GuerraF
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 18PepeluD
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 33Aaron MayolM
Substitutes
- 10H. ElliottM
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 15A. DiengM
- 19Dani RabaF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 25K. van OevelenG
- 27David OtorbiF
- 29Alex PanachD
- 36Iker CórdobaD
- 37Aimar BlázquezF
- 39R. SatoM
Real Sociedad
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 6Jon MartínD
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 12J. OchiengM
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 24L. SučićF
- 34Luken BeitiaD
Substitutes
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 7BarrenetxeaF
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 14T. KuboF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 19M. SarrD
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 22Héctor FortD
- 23A. ZakharyanM
- 29Alex GarciaF
Valencia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Mayol | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| David Otorbi | F | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| A. Danjuma | M | 88 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 7/8 |
| Luis Rioja | F | 2 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hugo Duro | F | 82 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| Pepelu | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Rodríguez | M | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. de Haas | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Pablo Maffeo | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Javi Guerra | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 6 | 1 | — | 4/7 |
| F. Ugrinic | M | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Aimar Blázquez | F | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| José Gayà | D | 82 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| H. Elliott | M | 21 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 8 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Dimitrievski | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Raba | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dieng | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnau Martínez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. van Oevelen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sato | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iker Córdoba | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Panach | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Sučić | F | 87 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| Barrenetxea | F | 29 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Carlos Soler | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Ochieng | M | 61 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 4 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Sergio Gómez | D | 69 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| J. Aramburu | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jon Martín | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gonçalo Guedes | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Álex Remiro | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aihen Muñoz | D | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luken Beitia | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Y. Herrera | M | 21 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Zakharyan | M | 3 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Óskarsson | F | 35 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Alex Garcia | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kubo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Pacheco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beñat Turrientes | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unai Marrero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sarr | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Héctor Fort | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Real Sociedad to win against Valencia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Valencia 1–2 Real Sociedad.
- What were the win probabilities for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Fipster's model gave Valencia a 7% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.