Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano
Match recap
Valencia and Rayo Vallecano drew 1–1 in their La Liga fixture. López scored for Valencia; Lejeune replied for Rayo Vallecano. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.69 for Valencia versus 1.21 for Rayo Vallecano. Valencia sit 9th in the La Liga table while Rayo Vallecano are 8th.
Analysis
Valencia host Rayo Vallecano in what promises to be a tightly contested La Liga fixture. Both teams are mid-table and eager to secure valuable points as the season nears its conclusion.
Valencia sit 12th with 42 points, while Rayo Vallecano are just above in 10th with 43 points after 35 games. Both sides have struggled for consistency, and their goal differences reflect their challenges this season.
Valencia's top scorer Hugo Duro has been reliable with 9 goals this season, while Umar Sadiq's recent form adds a threat up front. However, injuries to key players like Ramazani and the suspension of Gayà limit their attacking options. Rayo Vallecano also face creative midfield absences, weakening their assist potential. The teams are evenly matched, suggesting a balanced game likely to end in a draw.
Prediction
The prediction is a 1-1 draw, with a halftime score of 0-0. The match is expected to be competitive but cautious, with both sides scoring once. A total of four cards is anticipated, reflecting a moderately physical encounter.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Valencia's key attackers injured or suspended
Ramazani and Gayà are missing, reducing attacking and crossing options, impacting goal threat and wing play.
Umar Sadiq's recent scoring surge
Sadiq scored 3 goals in last 5 games, showing strong form and finishing ability as a substitute or starter.
Javi Guerra's playmaking edge
Guerra's assist form and passing volume give Valencia a creative edge to supply forwards effectively.
Hugo Duro's consistent scoring record
Duro's 9 goals and 0.27 goals/game rate surpass league average for attackers, making him a key scoring outlet.
Rayo Vallecano's creative midfield injuries
Álvaro García and Isi Palazón absences weaken Rayo's assist potential and midfield creativity.
Key Takeaways
In summary, expect a hard-fought draw with both teams sharing points. Valencia's attacking threats and Rayo's resilience should cancel each other out, making a 1-1 scoreline the most probable outcome.
- Valencia are 12th with 42 points from 35 games (W11 D9 L15).
- Rayo Vallecano are 10th with 43 points from 35 games (W10 D13 L12).
- Rayo Vallecano have a better goal difference (-6) than Valencia (-12) this season.
- Hugo Duro is Valencia's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- Umar Sadiq has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games, showing strong form.
- Valencia's José Gayà is suspended, impacting their left flank.
- Rayo Vallecano's Álvaro García is injured, weakening their creativity.
- The predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Valencia
Away — Rayo Vallecano
No standout top scorers flagged for Rayo Vallecano
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Saravia
Yellow Card
Lejeune
Assist: Gumbau
Saravia
López
Assist: Javi Guerra
Nteka
Yellow Card
Fran Pérez
Nteka
Javi Guerra
Óscar Valentín
Pepelu
Duro
José Gayà
Gumbau
Balliu
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | -6 | 51 |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -3 | 50 |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 49 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | -2 | 46 |
Match Statistics
Valencia
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 5César TárregaD
- 8Javi GuerraF
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 11Luis RiojaM
- 14José GayàD
- 16Diego LópezM
- 18PepeluM
- 20R. SaraviaD
- 24E. CömertD
Substitutes
- 4Unai NúñezD
- 6U. SadiqF
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 10André AlmeidaM
- 12Thierry CorreiaD
- 17L. RamazaniF
- 19Dani RabaF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 22B. SantamaríaM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 25Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 26Rubo IranzoD
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Pep ChavarríaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 11R. NtekaF
- 13A. BatallaG
- 15GumbauM
- 20I. BalliuD
- 21Fran PérezM
- 22A. EspinoM
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 32N. MendyD
Substitutes
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 6P. CissM
- 8Ó. TrejoM
- 9AlemãoF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 14Carlos MartínF
- 16A. MuminD
- 17Unai LópezM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 30JuanpeG
- 33J. VertrouwdD
Valencia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego López | M | 98 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Javier Guerra | F | 61 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1/3 |
| José Luis Gayà(C) | D | 63 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guido Rodríguez | M | 98 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Eray Cömert | D | 98 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| César Tárrega | D | 98 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Rioja | M | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Pepelu | M | 61 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hugo Duro | F | 61 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renzo Saravia | D | 32 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Thierry Correia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnaut Danjuma | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julen Agirrezabala | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén Iranzo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Raba | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Baptiste Santamaria | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Almeida | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unai Núñez | D | 66 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 35 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 37 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Largie Ramazani | F | 37 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Umar Sadiq | F | 37 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Gumbau | M | 67 | 7.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Florian Lejeune | D | 98 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nobel Mendy | D | 98 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pacha | M | 98 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Augusto Batalla | G | 98 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Iván Balliu | D | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/5 |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 98 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Óscar Valentín(C) | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Josep Chavarría | D | 98 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Fran Pérez | M | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Randy Nteka | F | 60 | 5.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sergio Camello | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juanpe | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Cárdenas | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Trejo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdul Mumin | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Martín | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | M | 37 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unai López | M | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrei Rațiu | D | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alemão | F | 38 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 38 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |