Valencia vs Celta Vigo
Match recap
Valencia and Celta Vigo drew 0–0 in their La Liga fixture. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.57 for Valencia versus 0.66 for Celta Vigo. Valencia sit 19th in the La Liga table while Celta Vigo are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
0-1 Celta Vigo win
Actual
0–0
Outcome probability
Valencia and Celta Vigo face off in what promises to be a cagey La Liga encounter. Both sides have had their struggles this season, but Celta's recent attacking form and Valencia's defensive woes set the stage for a narrow away victory.
Match factors
Celta's attacking trio vs Valencia's defensive line
Celta's front three have better recent scoring form and Valencia's defense concedes 2.25 goals per home game
Valencia's defensive struggles at home
Valencia concedes 2.25 goals per home game, above league average, favoring Celta's scoring chances
Pablo Durán's scoring form
Durán scored 2 goals in last 5 games, showing strong attacking momentum for Celta
Javi Guerra's creative influence for Valencia
Guerra leads Valencia with 2 assists and high passing involvement, key to creating chances
Aaron Mayol's goal threat from defense
Mayol has scored 1 goal in 2 games, well above average for defenders, adding surprise element
The context
This is the second round of the regular La Liga season. Valencia sit 19th with just 5 points from 8 games, while Celta Vigo are a bit steadier in 9th place with 8 points. Historically, Valencia have a slight edge in head-to-heads, but recent form and defensive records suggest a different story this time.
Key insights
Pablo Durán
Celta Vigo
Durán has been in strong attacking form, scoring 2 goals in 6 games, making him a key threat for Celta.
La Liga 26/272 goals in 6 appearances
Javi Guerra
Valencia
Guerra is Valencia's creative hub with 2 assists and high passing involvement, crucial for chance creation.
La Liga 26/272 assists in 8 appearances
- A
Aaron Mayol
Valencia
Mayol adds an unexpected goal threat from defence, scoring 1 goal in just 2 games.
La Liga 26/271 goal in 2 appearances
Analysis
Valencia's defence has been leaky at home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per game, which bodes ill against Celta's sharper attack. Pablo Durán leads Celta's scoring with 2 goals in 6 games and has been in good form recently. Meanwhile, Valencia's creative spark Javi Guerra has been key with 2 assists, but it might not be enough to break down Celta's resilience. The prediction leans towards Celta grabbing an early goal and holding on, with a total of four cards expected, indicating a moderately physical contest.
Key facts
- 1.Valencia rank 19th with 5 points from 8 games (W1 D2 L5).
- 2.Celta Vigo rank 9th with 8 points from 8 games (W1 D5 L2).
- 3.Valencia have won 9 of 20 head-to-head matches; Celta Vigo have won 6; 5 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game.
- 5.Valencia concede 2.25 goals per home game on average.
- 6.Pablo Durán is Celta's top scorer with 2 goals in 6 games.
- 7.Javi Guerra leads Valencia with 2 assists in 8 games.
- 8.Prediction expects 4 total cards in the match.
Prediction
Expect Celta Vigo to take the lead by halftime and maintain their advantage to secure a 1-0 win. Valencia's defensive vulnerabilities at home and Celta's attacking momentum make this a cautious but clear call for the visitors.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Valencia
Away — Celta Vigo
The verdict
In summary, Celta Vigo's sharper attack and Valencia's defensive struggles set the scene for a narrow away win. Fans should brace for a tight, tactical battle with limited goals but enough action to keep things interesting.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
No recent fixture data
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
de Haas
Yellow Card
Dimitrievski
Yellow Card
de Haas
Álvarez
Sato
Carreira
Yellow Card
Javi Galán
El Abdellaoui
Jutglà
Javi Rueda
Yellow Card
Ugrinic
José Gayà
Febas
Radu
Yellow Card
Danjuma
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Valencia
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 5César TárregaD
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 18PepeluD
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 39R. SatoM
Substitutes
- 4M. DiakhabyD
- 6U. SadiqF
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 10André AlmeidaM
- 13Cristian RiveroG
- 15A. DiengM
- 19Dani RabaF
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 27David OtorbiF
- 41Marcos NavarroD
Celta Vigo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 13I. RaduG
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 22Javi GalánM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 29Yoel LagoD
- 39J. El AbdellaouiF
Substitutes
- 1A. BayındırG
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 4A. FayeD
- 6I. MoribaM
- 7Borja IglesiasF
- 10Iago AspasF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 16Hugo GonzálezM
- 17Javi RuedaD
- 19W. SwedbergM
- 30H. BurcioM
Valencia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Tárrega | D | 93 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guido Rodríguez | M | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pepelu | D | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 69 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ryunosuke Sato | M | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Guerra | M | 93 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 93 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnaut Danjuma | F | 83 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/1 |
| José Luis Gayà(C) | D | 69 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Justin De Haas | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marcos Navarro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Rivero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Raba | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Almeida | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Otorbi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mouctar Diakhaby | D | 48 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Duro | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umar Sadiq | F | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Pablo Maffeo | D | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Aliou Dieng | M | 24 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Celta Vigo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Román | M | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Marcos Alonso(C) | D | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Javi Rodríguez | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Yoel Lago | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Carreira | M | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Ionuț Radu | G | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javi Galán | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Aleix Febas | M | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Hugo Álvarez | F | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Jones El-Abdellaoui | F | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ferran Jutglà | F | 64 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Hugo Burcio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdoulaye Faye | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alvaro Núñez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo González | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Altay Bayındır | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carl Starfelt | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Borja Iglesias | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Aspas | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pablo Durán | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ilaix Moriba | M | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Williot Swedberg | M | 36 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Javier Rueda | D | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Celta Vigo to win against Valencia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Valencia 0–1 Celta Vigo.
- What were the win probabilities for Valencia vs Celta Vigo?
- Fipster's model gave Valencia a 20% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 59% confidence — a medium-confidence call.