Valencia vs Atletico Madrid
Match recap
Atletico Madrid beat Valencia 2–0 in their La Liga fixture. Luque and Llorente scored for Atletico Madrid. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.11 for Valencia versus 1.78 for Atletico Madrid. Valencia sit 9th in the La Liga table while Atletico Madrid are 4th.
Analysis
Valencia host Atletico Madrid in what promises to be a tightly contested La Liga fixture. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but the visitors hold a clear edge in the standings and recent form.
Valencia sit 12th with 39 points, struggling to find consistency, while Atletico Madrid are comfortably placed 4th with 60 points. The match takes place at Valencia's home ground, where they have shown some scoring momentum despite defensive frailties.
Atletico Madrid's superior goal difference (+19 vs Valencia's -11) and points per game (1.82 vs 1.18) highlight their stronger overall performance. Valencia's top scorer Hugo Duro has been in good form at home, but Atletico's balanced attack and midfield creativity, even missing key players like Sørloth and Koke, should prevail. Valencia's defensive issues, including the suspension of José Gayà, further tip the scales in Atletico's favour.
Prediction
The predicted halftime score is 0-1 to Atletico Madrid, with the fulltime result expected to be a 2-1 away win. The match is likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Confidence in this outcome stands at just over 51%, making Atletico the favourites to take all three points.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Valencia's key attackers in form despite injuries
Hugo Duro and Umar Sadiq show strong recent scoring form; injuries to others may concentrate attack through them.
Atletico missing top scorer Sørloth and key midfielder Koke
Sørloth's suspension and Koke's absence reduce Atletico's attacking options, potentially affecting goal output.
Atletico's superior scoring and win percentage
Atletico averages 1.7 goals/game and 54.5% win rate vs Valencia's 1.1 goals/game and 30.3% win rate, favoring away win.
Valencia's positive scoring streak at home
Valencia has scored in last 4 home games, indicating offensive momentum despite defensive vulnerabilities.
Valencia's disciplinary issues weaken defense
Key defenders like José Gayà suspended due to cards, likely weakening defensive stability against Atletico attack.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Atletico Madrid's consistent form and Valencia's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a narrow away victory. Expect a close game with moments of quality from both sides, but ultimately Atletico should edge it 2-1.
- Valencia are 12th with 39 points from 33 games (W10 D9 L14).
- Atletico Madrid are 4th with 60 points from 33 games (W18 D6 L9).
- Atletico Madrid have a +19 goal difference compared to Valencia's -11.
- Atletico Madrid average 1.82 points per game, Valencia 1.18.
- Valencia's Hugo Duro has scored 9 goals this season, with strong recent form at home.
- José Gayà is suspended for Valencia due to card accumulation.
- Atletico's top scorer Sørloth is suspended, and Koke is absent due to injury.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Valencia
Away — Atletico Madrid
No standout top scorers flagged for Atletico Madrid
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Almada
Yellow Card
Mendoza
Yellow Card
Ugrinic
Luis Rioja
Vargas
Yellow Card
Belid
Morcillo
Tárrega
Yellow Card
Mendoza
Almada
Ramazani
José Gayà
Luque
Assist: Vargas
Saravia
Llorente
Assist: Griezmann
Goal confirmed
Boñar
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | +11 | 60 |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -3 | 50 |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 49 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | -2 | 46 |
Match Statistics
Valencia
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 5César TárregaD
- 6U. SadiqF
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 11Luis RiojaM
- 14José GayàD
- 17L. RamazaniF
- 18PepeluD
- 20R. SaraviaD
- 23F. UgrinicM
Substitutes
- 4Unai NúñezD
- 7A. DanjumaF
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 10André AlmeidaM
- 13Cristian RiveroG
- 16Diego LópezF
- 19Dani RabaF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 22B. SantamaríaM
- 24E. CömertD
- 26Rubo IranzoD
- 29Lucas NuñezM
Atletico Madrid
4-5-1Starting XI
- 1J. MussoG
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 11T. AlmadaM
- 15C. LengletD
- 16N. MolinaM
- 21O. VargasM
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 29Rayane BelidF
- 32Javier BoñarD
- 34Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 47J. MorcilloM
Substitutes
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 5J. CardosoM
- 6KokeM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 13J. OblakG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 30Dani MartÃnezD
- 37I. LuqueF
- 40A. PuricD
- 61M. LlorenteF
Valencia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Luis Gayà(C) | D | 73 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Guido Rodríguez | M | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| César Tárrega | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Javier Guerra | M | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| Luis Rioja | M | 59 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pepelu | D | 99 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Largie Ramazani | F | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Umar Sadiq | F | 99 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Renzo Saravia | D | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Cristian Rivero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén Iranzo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eray Cömert | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unai Núñez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Núñez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Baptiste Santamaria | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Almeida | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego López | F | 40 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Dani Raba | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnaut Danjuma | F | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Duro | F | 40 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Mendoza | M | 73 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4/4 |
| Nahuel Molina | M | 99 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1/2 |
| Clément Lenglet | D | 99 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Obed Vargas | M | 99 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Julio Díaz | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Javier Boñar | D | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/5 |
| Thiago Almada | M | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Javi Morcillo | M | 63 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Musso(C) | G | 99 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Belaid | F | 63 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dani Martinez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Oblak | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksa Purić | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ademola Lookman | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Cardoso | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Baena | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Cubo | F | 36 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Iker Luque | F | 36 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Koke | M | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antoine Griezmann | F | 26 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |