Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle snatches late point at Utrecht
A last-gasp equaliser from S. van Duijn denies Utrecht a home win.
PEC Zwolle took the lead through E. Sørensen's strike in the 72nd minute, only for Utrecht's S. van Duijn to rescue a point with a 90+1' equaliser. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-1 home win, making it a surprising share of the spoils in this Eredivisie clash.
Outcome probability
As the regular season reaches its 10th round, Utrecht and PEC Zwolle face off in what promises to be an engaging encounter. Both sides sit near the bottom of the table, making this a crucial match for momentum and league positioning.
Match factors
Utrecht missing key midfield and attacking players
Utrecht's confirmed absences include multiple midfielders and attackers, weakening attacking depth and creativity
Utrecht's recent scoring streak at home
Utrecht has scored in their last 4 home matches, showing strong attacking form at home
PEC Zwolle's defensive midfield strength
PEC's Ryan Thomas and Olivier Aertssen excel in tackles and interceptions, potentially disrupting Utrecht's attack
Utrecht's defender S. Horemans excels in passing and duels
Horemans' high passing accuracy and duel win rate provide Utrecht stability and build-up advantage
The context
Utrecht currently holds 8 points from 8 games, just a notch above PEC Zwolle's 7 points from 9 matches. Their head-to-head history shows Utrecht with a clear edge, having won half of their 20 meetings, while PEC Zwolle has managed only two victories. Matches between these teams tend to be lively affairs, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Key insights
- S
S. Horemans
Utrecht
Horemans' 86% passing accuracy and 66% duel win rate provide Utrecht with defensive stability and effective ball progression.
Eredivisie 26/27Passing accuracy 86%, duel win rate 66%, 8 appearances
- R
Ryan Thomas
PEC Zwolle
Thomas' high tackles per game (3.67) and 18 interceptions make him a key disruptor in PEC Zwolle's midfield.
Eredivisie 26/273.67 tackles per game, 18 interceptions in 6 games
- O
Olivier Aertssen
PEC Zwolle
Aertssen's strong defensive stats with 3.25 tackles per game and 11 interceptions highlight his role in breaking up attacks.
Eredivisie 26/273.25 tackles per game, 11 interceptions, 8 appearances
Analysis
Utrecht's recent home form is encouraging, having scored in their last four home fixtures. Defensively, they benefit from the passing accuracy and duel success of defender S. Horemans, who provides stability and effective build-up play. PEC Zwolle counters with a strong defensive midfield duo in Ryan Thomas and Olivier Aertssen, both excelling in tackles and interceptions, which could disrupt Utrecht's attacking rhythm. However, Utrecht's ability to take an early lead is likely to set the tone, with a predicted halftime score of 2-0.
Key facts
- 1.Utrecht has won 10 of 20 matches against PEC Zwolle.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals per game.
- 3.Utrecht ranks 14th with 8 points from 8 games.
- 4.PEC Zwolle ranks 15th with 7 points from 9 games.
- 5.Utrecht has scored in their last 4 home matches.
- 6.Defender S. Horemans boasts 86% passing accuracy and a 66% duel win rate.
- 7.PEC Zwolle's Ryan Thomas averages 3.67 tackles per game with 18 interceptions.
- 8.PEC Zwolle's Olivier Aertssen has 3.25 tackles per game and 11 interceptions.
Prediction
The forecast sees Utrecht taking control early and maintaining their advantage to secure a 3-1 victory. The predicted four total cards suggest a competitive match with some robust challenges, but Utrecht's home advantage and attacking form should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Utrecht
Away — PEC Zwolle
The verdict
In summary, Utrecht's combination of home scoring momentum and defensive solidity, alongside PEC Zwolle's challenges in breaking down their opponents, points to a confident home win. Expect a lively match with goals and a clear Utrecht victory by the final whistle.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 19:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Agougil
Yellow Card
Mbayo
Vesterlund
van der Haar
Sørensen
Assist: Oosting
Alarcón
Cathline
van der Wal
Yellow Card
Agougil
van der Wal
Horemans
Sommer
Yellow Card
van Overeem
Yellow Card
van Duijn
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
Match Statistics
Utrecht
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2S. HoremansD
- 3M. DiddenD
- 5N. PanagiotouD
- 8J. van OvereemM
- 10Y. CathlineM
- 11Ángel AlarcónM
- 20D. de WitF
- 22S. PadtG
- 23N. VesterlundM
- 38O. AgougilM
- 92A. ZagréD
Substitutes
- 6G. OfferhausD
- 9Artem StepanovF
- 15A. BlakeF
- 17S. van DuijnF
- 18J. MedićD
- 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
- 31M. EppinkG
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 34D. van den BergM
- 39N. AmrabatF
PEC Zwolle
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 8T. SommerM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 17S. van HooijdonkF
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 25T. OostingM
- 28S. GravesD
- 30R. ThomasM
- 33D. van der HaarD
- 37Gilles van der WalM
Substitutes
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 6Jan BürgerD
- 7Y. NamliF
- 9E. SørensenF
- 10K. KostonsF
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 22I. CissokoF
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 41D. VerduinG
- 42Dylan RuwardD
Utrecht
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. van Duijn | F | 16 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Didden | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Padt | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Blake | F | 28 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Zagré | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| S. Horemans | D | 83 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| Ángel Alarcón | M | 74 | 6.7 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0/3 |
| N. Panagiotou | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| O. Agougil | M | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| N. Amrabat | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Cathline | M | 74 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4/6 |
| J. van Overeem | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Artem Stepanov | F | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. de Wit | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| N. Vesterlund | M | 62 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. van den Berg | M | 7 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Offerhaus | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Gadellaa | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Ogidi Nwankwo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Eppink | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kloosterboer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Medić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
PEC Zwolle
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Sørensen | F | 44 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| T. Oosting | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| S. Graves | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Kostons | F | 7 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Sommer | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| O. Aertssen | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jan Bürger | D | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. van der Haar | D | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Mbayo | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Schendelaar | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Thomas | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gilles van der Wal | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| N. Viergever | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. van Hooijdonk | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Fichtinger | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. de Graaff | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Cissoko | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Verduin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Velthuis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Namli | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jadiel Pereira da Gama | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Reiziger | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dylan Ruward | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Utrecht to win against PEC Zwolle.
- What score did Fipster predict for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Utrecht 3–1 PEC Zwolle.
- What were the win probabilities for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
- Fipster's model gave Utrecht a 87% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 6% chance, and a 7% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 87% confidence — a high-confidence call.