Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen stuns Utrecht in five-goal thriller
Dusan Tadić's brace powers NEC to a narrow away victory.
NEC Nijmegen pulled off a surprise 3-2 win at Utrecht, overturning an early deficit with goals from Kevin Kers and a brace by Dusan Tadić. Utrecht fought back with strikes from Y. Cathline and D. de Wit, but it wasn't enough to prevent the upset. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Utrecht home win, proving the visitors' attack too potent on the day.
Outcome probability
Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen face off in what promises to be a closely fought encounter in the Dutch league's regular season. Both sides are neck and neck in the standings, making this match crucial for momentum.
Match factors
NEC's Chery is a dual threat in scoring and assisting
Chery leads NEC with 4 goals and 2 assists this season, making him a key offensive threat.
Utrecht's defense relies on Horemans and Zagre
Horemans and Zagre show above-average defensive stats and passing accuracy, crucial for Utrecht's stability.
Utrecht's recent scoring streak supports predicted win
Utrecht has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, aligning with predicted 2-1 home win.
Utrecht missing key midfielders and attacker out injured
Several midfielders and an attacker are confirmed out, potentially limiting creativity and scoring options.
The context
Utrecht currently sit 11th with 12 points from 10 games, while NEC Nijmegen are just behind in 13th with 11 points from 11 matches. Their head-to-head history shows Utrecht with a slight edge, having won 9 of their 20 meetings compared to NEC's 6 wins, with 5 draws.
Key insights
Tjaronn Chefren Chery
NEC Nijmegen
Chery is a dual threat, leading NEC with 4 goals and 2 assists, making him their key offensive weapon.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals and 2 assists in 8 appearances
- S
S. Horemans
Utrecht
Horemans provides defensive stability with high passing accuracy and strong duel success, crucial for Utrecht’s backline.
Eredivisie 26/2785-86% passing accuracy, ~63-65% duel win rate
- A
Arthur Zagre
Utrecht
Zagre is a defensive stalwart, leading in tackles and interceptions, vital for Utrecht’s defensive resilience.
Eredivisie 26/272+ tackles per game, strong interception numbers
Yoann Cathline
Utrecht
Cathline’s recent scoring form and attacking presence make him a key player for Utrecht’s goal threat.
Eredivisie 26/27Multiple goals in recent matches
Analysis
The match is expected to be competitive, with an average of 2.3 goals in their past encounters suggesting moderate scoring. Utrecht's recent home form includes scoring in four of their last five home games, which bodes well for their attacking prospects. NEC's key player, Tjaronn Chefren Chery, is both their top scorer and assister, making him a dual threat. However, Utrecht's defensive stability, anchored by S. Horemans and Arthur Zagre, should help contain NEC's advances. Injuries to some of Utrecht's midfielders and attackers may limit their creativity, but their overall form and home advantage should see them through.
Key facts
- 1.Utrecht have won 9 of 20 matches against NEC Nijmegen, with 6 wins for NEC and 5 draws.
- 2.Average goals per match in their head-to-head is 2.3, indicating moderate scoring.
- 3.Utrecht are 11th in the league with 12 points from 10 games (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses).
- 4.NEC Nijmegen sit 13th with 11 points from 11 games (2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses).
- 5.Utrecht have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches, showing good attacking form at home.
- 6.Tjaronn Chefren Chery leads NEC with 4 goals and 2 assists this season.
- 7.Utrecht's defence relies heavily on S. Horemans and Arthur Zagre, both showing strong defensive stats.
- 8.Several key midfielders and an attacker are out injured for Utrecht, potentially affecting their creativity.
Prediction
We anticipate a 1-1 scoreline at halftime as both teams test each other's resolve. Ultimately, Utrecht are predicted to clinch a 2-1 victory by fulltime, capitalising on their home advantage and recent scoring streak.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Utrecht
Away — NEC Nijmegen
The verdict
This fixture promises a tight contest with moments of quality from both sides. Utrecht's slight edge in form and history should be enough to secure the win, but NEC will certainly make them work for it.
Prediction generated 1 Nov 2026, 15:21 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kers
Assist: Bakker
Tadić
Assist: Fonville
Cathline
Assist: Alarcón
Tadić
Stepanov
Alarcón
Broholm
de Wit
Assist: Amrabat
Kers
Amrabat
Yellow Card
Kloosterboer
Fonville
Linssen
Yellow Card
Brás
Tadić
Chery
Bischoff
Yellow Card
Vesterlund
Willumsson
Yellow Card
Cathline
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 |
Match Statistics
Utrecht
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1V. BarkasG
- 3M. DiddenD
- 5N. PanagiotouD
- 8J. van OvereemM
- 9Artem StepanovF
- 10Y. CathlineF
- 11Ángel AlarcónF
- 20D. de WitM
- 23N. VesterlundD
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 80M. BroholmM
Substitutes
- 2S. HoremansD
- 6G. OfferhausD
- 15A. BlakeF
- 17S. van DuijnF
- 18J. MedićD
- 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
- 22S. PadtG
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 34D. van den BergM
- 38O. AgougilM
- 39N. AmrabatF
- 92A. ZagréD
NEC Nijmegen
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1G. CrettazG
- 5M. BakkerM
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 9T. CheryM
- 10D. TadićM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 22A. KaplanD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 30B. LinssenF
- 34Kevin KersM
- 73Gabriel BrásD
Substitutes
- 3P. SandlerD
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 12N. PolsterG
- 14K. SierhuisF
- 19Adam TahauiF
- 21T. StormD
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 42Y. MoslihD
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 77A. ThomasF
- 99Clement BischoffF
Utrecht
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Cathline | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4/6 |
| Ángel Alarcón | F | 59 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Blake | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| N. Amrabat | F | 31 | 6.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Artem Stepanov | F | 59 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. van Duijn | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. de Wit | M | 90 | 6.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Vesterlund | D | 91 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Didden | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Panagiotou | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| O. Agougil | M | 31 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| P. Kloosterboer | D | 76 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. van Overeem | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| V. Barkas | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Broholm | M | 59 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Medić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Offerhaus | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. van den Berg | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Padt | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Horemans | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Ogidi Nwankwo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Zagré | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Gadellaa | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
NEC Nijmegen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tadić | M | 88 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1/3 |
| M. Bakker | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| A. Kaplan | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Kers | M | 69 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| T. Chery | M | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| Deveron Fonville | D | 77 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Brás | D | 88 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| B. Linssen | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| P. Sandler | D | 13 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Clement Bischoff | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Storm | D | 2 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamiro Monteiro | M | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Willumsson | M | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Crettaz | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Nejašmić | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Lebreton | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Thomas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Tahaui | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Moslih | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Sierhuis | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Polster | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Hansen-Aarøen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Utrecht to win against NEC Nijmegen.
- What score did Fipster predict for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Utrecht 2–1 NEC Nijmegen.
- What were the win probabilities for Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster's model gave Utrecht a 71% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 14% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 71% confidence — a high-confidence call.