Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
Union Berlin held to draw by Köln
A late strike from M. El Mala rescues a point for Köln at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
Union Berlin looked set for a comfortable win after J. Haberer put them ahead early on, but 1. FC Köln fought back with a well-taken goal from M. El Mala in the 79th minute to secure a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 2-0 home win, proving that Köln had other ideas on the day.
Outcome probability
Union Berlin face 1. FC Köln in the eighth round of the regular season, with both teams looking to improve their league standings. The match promises tactical discipline and a battle for control in midfield and defence.
Match factors
Union Berlin missing key attackers and defenders
Union Berlin has 3 confirmed outs including attackers and defenders, weakening squad depth and attacking options
1. FC Köln missing key attackers and midfielders
Köln has 5 confirmed outs including attackers and midfielders, reducing offensive threat potential
Union Berlin's defensive players excel in passing and tackling
Uduokhai and Rothe exceed league averages in passing and tackling, aiding defensive solidity
Köln's defenders show high passing accuracy and tackling efficiency
Lochoshvili and Sosa have high passing accuracy (91%, 88%) and tackle rates, key for defensive stability
Union Berlin's recent home form shows defensive resilience
Union Berlin kept 2 clean sheets in last 4 home games, supporting predicted 2-0 win
The context
Union Berlin currently sit 17th with 5 points from 6 games, while 1. FC Köln are 12th with 7 points. Historically, Union Berlin have the edge in head-to-head encounters, winning 10 of their 20 meetings against Köln's 6. The average goals scored in these matches is 2.5, suggesting a moderately open game.
Key insights
- F
F. Uduokhai
Union Berlin
Uduokhai's passing average of 53.25 per game exceeds the league defender average, boosting Union Berlin's build-up play.
Bundesliga 26/27Passing avg 53.25 per game vs league defender avg 35.75
- T
T. Rothe
Union Berlin
Rothe's tackling prowess, with 3.33 tackles per game, strengthens Union Berlin's defensive solidity at home.
Bundesliga 26/273.33 tackles per game vs league avg 1.14
- F
F. Rønnow
Union Berlin
Rønnow's role in securing two clean sheets in the last four home games underpins Union Berlin's defensive confidence.
Bundesliga 26/272 clean sheets in last 4 home games
- L
L. Lochoshvili
1. FC Köln
Lochoshvili's 91% passing accuracy and high pass volume are key to Köln's defensive organisation.
Bundesliga 26/27Passing accuracy 91%, avg 60.3 passes per game
Analysis
Union Berlin's defensive players, notably F. Uduokhai and T. Rothe, excel in passing and tackling, providing a solid foundation at the back. Goalkeeper F. Rønnow has contributed to two clean sheets in the last four home games, reinforcing their defensive resilience. Meanwhile, Köln's defenders Lochoshvili and Sosa also show strong passing accuracy and tackling efficiency, but their offensive options are limited due to several key absences. Both sides are missing important attackers and midfielders, which could reduce goal-scoring opportunities. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with Union Berlin's ability to take an early lead and maintain control.
Key facts
- 1.Union Berlin have won 10 of 20 head-to-head matches against 1. FC Köln.
- 2.Average goals in head-to-head matches is 2.5, matching the predicted 2-0 scoreline.
- 3.Union Berlin are ranked 17th with 5 points from 6 games.
- 4.1. FC Köln are ranked 12th with 7 points from 6 games.
- 5.Union Berlin kept 2 clean sheets in their last 4 home games.
- 6.Union Berlin's F. Uduokhai averages 53.25 passes per game, above the league defender average of 35.75.
- 7.T. Rothe leads Union Berlin with 3.33 tackles per game, surpassing the league average of 1.14 for defenders.
- 8.Köln's L. Lochoshvili boasts 91% passing accuracy and averages 60.3 passes per game.
Prediction
The forecast is for Union Berlin to secure a 2-0 victory, building on a 1-0 lead at halftime. Their defensive solidity and home advantage are expected to stifle Köln's attack, while Union Berlin capitalise on their chances to extend the lead in the second half.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Union Berlin
No standout best passers flagged for Union Berlin
Away — 1. FC Köln
The verdict
In summary, Union Berlin's combination of defensive strength and home form should see them comfortably overcome 1. FC Köln. Expect a disciplined performance that results in a clean sheet and a 2-0 win to boost their league campaign.
Prediction generated 24 Oct 2026, 15:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Haberer
Assist: Skarke
Van Den Bosch
Yellow Card
Simpson-Pusey
Yellow Card
Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
Yellow Card
Imeri
Yellow Card
Bergmann Jóhannesson
Skarke
Imeri
Sebulonsen
Maina
Yellow Card
Maina
Burcu
Haberer
Kemlein
Yellow Card
Köhn
Yellow Card
El Mala
Assist: Castro-Montes
Aebischer
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +20 | 21 |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
Match Statistics
Union Berlin
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 1F. RønnowG
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 5M. FriedrichD
- 8R. KhediraD
- 9Livan BurcuF
- 13A. SchäferM
- 17D. KöhnM
- 19J. HabererM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 21T. SkarkeF
- 30K. ImeriM
Substitutes
- 6A. KemleinM
- 7O. BurkeF
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 15T. RotheD
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 29E. Latte LathF
- 31M. RaabG
- 32M. GrayF
1. FC Köln
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1M. SchwäbeG
- 2J. SchmiedD
- 3B. SosaD
- 5T. KraußM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 10S. El MalaF
- 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
- 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
- 28S. SebulonsenD
- 30M. BülterF
- 37L. MainaM
Substitutes
- 7L. WaldschmidtF
- 11Reigan HeskeyF
- 14G. MensahD
- 17A. Castro-MontesM
- 19M. El MalaF
- 20R. ZielerG
- 24L. LochoshviliD
- 29J. ThielmannM
- 47M. MooreF
Union Berlin
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Haberer | M | 74 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Khedira | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Friedrich | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kemlein | M | 29 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Skarke | F | 61 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Trimmel | D | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Latte Lath | F | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Livan Burcu | F | 74 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| O. Burke | F | 29 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Aebischer | M | 84 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Köhn | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Schäfer | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| F. Rønnow | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Van Den Bosch | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeong Woo-Yeong | M | 16 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Imeri | M | 61 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Gray | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Rothe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Querfeld | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Raab | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
1. FC Köln
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. El Mala | F | 18 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Castro-Montes | M | 29 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| T. Krauß | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Sosa | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| J. Schmied | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Bülter | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Moore | F | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Schwäbe | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Maina | M | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| S. Sebulonsen | D | 61 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. El Mala | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 2/7 |
| Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson | M | 61 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lochoshvili | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Thielmann | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Mensah | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Zieler | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reigan Heskey | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Waldschmidt | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Union Berlin to win against 1. FC Köln.
- What score did Fipster predict for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Union Berlin 2–0 1. FC Köln.
- What were the win probabilities for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
- Fipster's model gave Union Berlin a 76% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 12% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 76% confidence — a high-confidence call.