Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland thrash Ukraine with Brown brace
A commanding 3-0 victory for Northern Ireland silences the home crowd early on.
Northern Ireland delivered a stunning performance in the UEFA Nations League, cruising to a 3-0 win over Ukraine. Chris Brown's early strike set the tone at 9 minutes, followed by Ian Price doubling the lead before the half-hour mark. Brown sealed the emphatic victory with a second goal after the break. This result was a clear upset, defying Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Ukrainian win.
Outcome probability
This League B fixture between Ukraine and Northern Ireland promises a competitive encounter as both teams have started the competition strongly. With similar recent records, the match could hinge on key moments and individual performances.
Match factors
Ukraine's midfield defensive dominance
O. Ocheretko's 6 tackles and 75% duel win rate provide Ukraine control in midfield
Sikan leads Ukraine's scoring chances
Danylo Sikan's 0.5 goals per game and key striker role boost Ukraine's attack
Northern Ireland's Charles in strong form
Shea Charles scored in his only appearance, showing sharpness in attack
Set-piece threat from Northern Ireland's Hume
Trai Hume's assist and defensive solidity make him a dual threat on flanks
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions, so teams can field strongest lineups
The context
Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland have played two matches in this competition, each boasting one win and one draw without conceding a goal. This sets the stage for a tight contest as they vie for crucial points in the league phase.
Key insights
- O
O. Ocheretko
Ukraine
O. Ocheretko's 6 tackles and 75% duel win rate provide Ukraine control in midfield.
UEFA Nations League 26/276 tackles and 75% duel win rate in this competition
Danylo Sikan
Ukraine
Danylo Sikan's 0.5 goals per game and key striker role boost Ukraine's attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances, 0.5 goals per game
Shea Charles
Northern Ireland
Shea Charles scored in his only appearance, showing sharpness in attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 1.0 goals per game
Trai Hume
Northern Ireland
Trai Hume's assist and defensive solidity make him a dual threat on flanks.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 1 appearance, 1.0 assists per game
Analysis
Ukraine's midfield dominance, particularly through O. Ocheretko's impressive tackling and duel success, gives them a tactical edge. Danylo Sikan leads Ukraine's attack with a solid scoring record, while Northern Ireland's Shea Charles has shown sharpness upfront. Northern Ireland's Trai Hume poses a threat from set-pieces and contributes defensively, making this a well-balanced matchup. Both teams have full squads available, ensuring a contest between their best players.
Key facts
- 1.Ukraine and Northern Ireland both have 1 win and 1 draw in this competition so far.
- 2.Neither team has conceded a goal in their two matches to date.
- 3.The highest probability scoreline is 1-2 (away win), but 2-1 (home win) is the top home win prediction.
- 4.Danylo Sikan is Ukraine's top scorer with 1 goal in 2 games.
- 5.Shea Charles leads Northern Ireland's scoring with 1 goal in 1 game.
- 6.O. Ocheretko has a high defensive contribution with 6 tackles and a 75% duel win rate.
- 7.Trai Hume is a key set-piece threat and top assister for Northern Ireland.
- 8.Both teams have full squad availability with no confirmed injuries.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Ukraine with a 2-1 scoreline. While the overall probabilities are finely balanced, the most likely home win scoreline is 2-1, reflecting Ukraine's slight edge in midfield control and attacking potential. Expect a closely fought game with Ukraine just shading it.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Ukraine
Away — Northern Ireland
The verdict
In summary, this League B clash should provide an entertaining battle with Ukraine narrowly prevailing. Key players like Sikan and Ocheretko will be pivotal, while Northern Ireland's Charles and Hume will look to spoil the party. A 2-1 scoreline seems the most fitting outcome for this evenly matched fixture.
Prediction generated 28 Sep 2026, 20:41 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Brown
Price
Assist: Morrison
Brazhko
Matvienko
Yellow Card
Brown
Assist: Charles
Yarmolenko
Bondar
Yaremchuk
Spencer
Yellow Card
Price
Sudakov
Donley
Morrison
Atcheson
Devlin
Sikan
Yellow Card
Ponomarenko
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Ukraine
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 3E. SarapiyD
- 5V. BondarD
- 6V. BrazhkoM
- 7A. YarmolenkoM
- 8H. SudakovM
- 9R. YaremchukF
- 13I. ZabarnyiD
- 15V. TsygankovM
- 18O. OcheretkoM
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 23D. RiznykG
Substitutes
- 1H. ErmakovG
- 2I. KrupskyiD
- 4T. MykhavkoD
- 10M. ShaparenkoM
- 11M. PonomarenkoF
- 12A. TrubinG
- 14D. SikanF
- 16I. VarfolomeevM
- 17O. NazarenkoM
- 19E. NazarynaM
- 20O. ZubkovM
- 21I. KrasnopirF
Northern Ireland
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2T. DevlinD
- 4Tom AtchesonD
- 5T. HumeM
- 7K. MorrisonM
- 10J. DonleyF
- 14I. PriceM
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 19S. CharlesM
- 20B. SpencerD
- 22C. BrownD
Substitutes
- 3J. DevennyM
- 6J. ThompsonM
- 8C. O’NeillF
- 9D. CharlesF
- 11P. SmythF
- 12C. HazardG
- 13M. ForbesD
- 16Patrick KellyM
- 17P. McNairD
- 18B. GrahamF
- 21J. MagennisF
- 23B. Peacock-FarrellG
Ukraine
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Ocheretko | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| I. Zabarnyi | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| D. Sikan | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Sarapiy | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Yaremchuk | F | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| V. Bondar | D | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Sudakov | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| V. Brazhko | M | 56 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| M. Ponomarenko | F | 27 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| E. Nazaryna | M | 34 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| O. Nazarenko | M | 22 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Zubkov | M | 27 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| V. Tsygankov | M | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Riznyk | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Matvienko | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Yarmolenko | M | 63 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| I. Varfolomeev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Krupskyi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ermakov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Krasnopir | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Mykhavko | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Shaparenko | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Trubin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Northern Ireland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Brown | D | 90 | 8.5 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| I. Price | M | 67 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| K. Morrison | M | 77 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Ruairi McConville | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Devlin | D | 84 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| P. Charles | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. McNair | D | 6 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tom Atcheson | D | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Devenny | M | 23 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Patrick Kelly | M | 13 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Hume | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Charles | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. O’Neill | F | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Magennis | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Donley | F | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 4/4 |
| B. Spencer | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| P. Smyth | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Thompson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Peacock-Farrell | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Graham | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Forbes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Charles | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Hazard | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Ukraine to win against Northern Ireland.
- What score did Fipster predict for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Ukraine 2–1 Northern Ireland.
- What were the win probabilities for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
- Fipster's model gave Ukraine a 52% chance of winning, Northern Ireland a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.