Ukraine vs Hungary
Match recap
Hungary beat Ukraine 2–1 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Yaremchuk scored for Ukraine; Tóth and Csinger replied for Hungary. Ukraine held 51% possession to 49% for Hungary.
Outcome probability
Ukraine and Hungary face off in a League B encounter where both sides will be looking to avoid defeat and keep their campaigns on track. With neither team showing a clear edge in recent matches, this promises to be a cautious affair.
Match factors
Ukraine's midfield defensive dominance
O. Ocheretko's 6 tackles and 75% duel win rate provide Ukraine strong midfield control
Danylo Sikan's scoring form
Sikan has scored 1 goal in 2 games with 0.5 goals per game, leading Ukraine's attack
Heorhii Sudakov's creative impact
Sudakov has 1 assist in 1 game and strong passing stats, key to Ukraine's chance creation
No confirmed injuries for Ukraine or Hungary
Both teams have full squads available, no injury disruptions expected
The context
Both Ukraine and Hungary have played three matches each in this competition, with identical records of one win, one draw, and one loss. Ukraine have scored one goal and conceded three, while Hungary have scored and conceded one each. Their previous head-to-head meeting ended in a win for Ukraine, but with only one encounter on record, history offers little guidance.
Key insights
- O
O. Ocheretko
Ukraine
Ocheretko's six tackles and 75% duel win rate give Ukraine strong midfield control to disrupt Hungary's play.
UEFA Nations League 26/276 tackles in last game, 75% duel win rate
D. Sikan
Ukraine
Sikan leads Ukraine's attack with a goal in two games, showing he can be a threat despite the predicted stalemate.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
H. Sudakov
Ukraine
Sudakov's creativity shines with an assist in his only game, crucial for chance creation in a tight match.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 1 appearance, 1.0 assists/game
Analysis
The probabilities suggest a draw is the most likely outcome, with a 0-0 scoreline leading the pack. Ukraine's midfield, anchored by O. Ocheretko, boasts strong defensive stats including six tackles and a 75% duel win rate, which could stifle Hungary's attacking efforts. Ukraine's key striker Danylo Sikan has shown promise with a goal in two games, supported creatively by Heorhii Sudakov, who has an assist in his sole appearance. However, both teams have struggled to find the net consistently, and the defensive solidity on display points to a match where goals may be hard to come by.
Key facts
- 1.Ukraine have played 3 matches in this competition (W1 D1 L1, GF 1 / GA 3)
- 2.Hungary have played 3 matches in this competition (W1 D1 L1, GF 1 / GA 1)
- 3.In 1 head-to-head meeting, Ukraine have won 1, Hungary have won 0, with 0 draws
- 4.Draw outcome class has highest aggregated probability at approximately 40%
- 5.0-0 is the single most probable fulltime scoreline
- 6.Ukraine's O. Ocheretko made 6 tackles in last game with a 75% duel win rate
- 7.Danylo Sikan is Ukraine's top scorer with 1 goal in 2 games
- 8.Heorhii Sudakov has 1 assist in 1 game, key to Ukraine's chance creation
Prediction
Expect a tight, tactical battle with neither side able to break the deadlock. The prediction is a 0-0 draw, reflecting the cautious approach both teams are likely to adopt given their similar form and defensive strengths.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
The verdict
While the match may lack the fireworks of a goal fest, it promises a strategic midfield battle and disciplined defending. Fans might have to settle for a stalemate, but the contest will be a test of patience and resilience for both Ukraine and Hungary.
Prediction generated 2 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Nazaryna
Yellow Card
Tóth
Assist: Vitális
Dániel Lukács
Yellow Card
Ponomarenko
Krasnopir
Veleten
Dániel Lukács
Tóth
Ocheretko
Schäfer
Tóth
R.Tóth
Yellow Card
Yaremchuk
Assist: Pikhalyonok
Csinger
Assist: R.Tóth
Nazaryna
Szoboszlai
Match Statistics
Ukraine
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 2I. KrupskyiM
- 3E. SarapiyD
- 4T. MykhavkoD
- 10M. PonomarenkoF
- 12A. TrubinG
- 13I. ZabarnyiD
- 15V. TsygankovM
- 18O. OcheretkoM
- 19E. NazarynaM
- 21V. VeletenM
- 22I. KrasnopirF
Substitutes
- 1H. ErmakovG
- 5V. BondarD
- 6V. BrazhkoM
- 7A. YarmolenkoM
- 8O. NazarenkoM
- 9R. YaremchukF
- 11V. VanatF
- 14O. DrambaevD
- 16I. VarfolomeevM
- 17O. PikhalyonokM
- 20M. KhlanM
- 23D. RiznykG
Hungary
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. TóthG
- 2A. OsváthD
- 3M. CsingerD
- 6W. OrbánD
- 8M. VitálisM
- 10D. SzoboszlaiM
- 13A. SchäferM
- 16Dániel LukácsM
- 18Z. NagyD
- 20M. TóthF
- 21A. TóthM
Substitutes
- 4B. VárkonyiD
- 5A. MarkgráfD
- 7Tamás SzücsM
- 9D. BárányF
- 11J. SzalaiF
- 12Bence Gundel-TakacsG
- 14B. BollaD
- 15Á. CsongvaiM
- 17Gabor JurekF
- 19R.TóthM
- 22Á. PécsiG
- 23Áron DoktoricsM
Ukraine
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Yaremchuk | F | 30 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| T. Mykhavko | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| E. Sarapiy | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| I. Zabarnyi | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Pikhalyonok | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| E. Nazaryna | M | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| A. Trubin | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Krupskyi | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| O. Ocheretko | M | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| I. Krasnopir | F | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Ponomarenko | F | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/5 |
| V. Veleten | M | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Khlan | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| I. Varfolomeev | M | 4 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Vanat | F | 30 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| V. Tsygankov | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| O. Drambaev | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Brazhko | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ermakov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Riznyk | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Bondar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Yarmolenko | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Nazarenko | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Hungary
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Csinger | D | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Vitális | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| M. Tóth | F | 72 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| W. Orbán | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Szalai | F | 18 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Tóth | M | 62 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Schäfer | M | 72 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R.Tóth | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Osváth | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| D. Szoboszlai | M | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Tamás Szücs | M | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Á. Csongvai | M | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Jurek | F | 28 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| B. Tóth | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Nagy | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| D. Lukacs | M | 61 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Á. Doktorics | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Gundel-Takács | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bárány | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Bolla | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Markgráf | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Á. Pécsi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Várkonyi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Ukraine vs Hungary?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Ukraine and Hungary.
- What score did Fipster predict for Ukraine vs Hungary?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Ukraine 0–0 Hungary.
- What were the win probabilities for Ukraine vs Hungary?
- Fipster's model gave Ukraine a 33% chance of winning, Hungary a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.