Udinese vs Parma
Match recap
Parma beat Udinese 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Elphege scored for Parma. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.13 for Udinese versus 1.23 for Parma. Udinese sit 10th in the Serie A table while Parma are 13th.
Analysis
As Serie A heads into the 33rd round, Udinese host Parma in a match where home advantage and defensive discipline could be decisive. Expect a closely fought encounter with a slim margin.
Udinese and Parma have a balanced rivalry historically, but current form and squad availability tilt the scales. Udinese's top scorers are sidelined, yet their defensive and midfield strength at home remains a key asset. Parma miss their top scorer and creative midfielder, weakening their attacking threat.
Udinese's defensive duo, including O. Solet with his impressive 88% passing accuracy and 61 tackles, alongside captain J. Karlström's midfield control, suggest they will dominate possession and limit Parma's chances. Parma's absence of Mateo Pellegrino and E. Valeri further reduces their goal threat. Despite Udinese's key attackers missing, their home scoring rate of 0.9 goals per game outshines Parma's 0.7 away average, supporting a narrow home win.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-0 victory for Udinese, consistent with the highest probability fulltime scoreline at 21.5%. The halftime score is predicted as 1-0 as well, reflecting Udinese's likely early control. Expect four cards in total, indicating a moderately physical game.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Udinese's key attackers missing
K. Davis and N. Zaniolo are both unavailable, reducing Udinese's scoring options despite predicted win.
Parma missing top scorer and key midfielder
Mateo Pellegrino and E. Valeri are injured/suspended, weakening Parma's attack and creativity.
Udinese's defensive passing and tackling superior
O. Solet and J. Karlström show above-average defensive and passing stats, aiding control and defense.
Udinese's midfield control likely
Karlström's leadership and passing volume suggest midfield dominance, limiting Parma's chances.
Udinese's home form slightly better
Udinese scores more at home (0.9 goals/game) than Parma scores away (0.7), supporting home win prediction.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Udinese's home advantage, defensive resilience, and Parma's weakened attack point towards a tight 1-0 home win. Fans should brace for a tactical battle with limited goals but plenty of midfield action.
- Udinese have a slightly better goal difference and are ranked higher than Parma this season.
- In 20 head-to-head meetings, Udinese have won 8, Parma 9, with 3 draws, showing a balanced rivalry.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.0 total goals, indicating moderate scoring games.
- Udinese's home scoring rate is 0.9 goals per game, higher than Parma's 0.7 away average.
- Udinese's O. Solet boasts 88% passing accuracy and 61 tackles this season.
- Parma's top scorer Mateo Pellegrino is suspended, weakening their attack.
- Udinese's captain J. Karlström leads midfield with 1245 passes at 80% accuracy.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Udinese
Away — Parma
No standout top scorers flagged for Parma
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pellegrino
Elphege
Assist: Gabriel Strefezza
Piotrowski
Piotrowski
Kamara
Kamara
Bernabé
Gabriel Strefezza
Zaniolo
Yellow Card
Nicolussi
Ekkelenkamp
Ehizibue
N'Diaye
Kristensen
Karlström
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Udinese
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 10N. ZanioloF
- 11H. KamaraM
- 14A. AttaF
- 19K. EhizibueM
- 24J. PiotrowskiM
- 27C. KabaseleD
- 28O. SoletD
- 31T. KristensenD
- 32J. EkkelenkampF
- 40M. OkoyeG
Substitutes
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 7I. GueyeF
- 15V. BayoF
- 18A. BuksaF
- 20J. ArizalaM
- 22Branimir MlačićD
- 29A. CamaraM
- 38L. MillerM
- 90R. SavaG
- 93D. PadelliG
Parma
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3A. N'DiayeD
- 7Gabriel StrefezzaF
- 9Mateo PellegrinoF
- 10Adrián BernabéF
- 14E. ValeriM
- 15E. Del PratoM
- 16M. KeitaM
- 31Z. SuzukiG
- 37M. TroiloD
- 39A. CircatiD
- 41H. NicolussiM
Substitutes
- 5L. ValentiD
- 8N. EstévezM
- 11P. AlmqvistF
- 17J. OndrejkaF
- 21G. OristanioM
- 22O. SørensenM
- 23N. ElphegeF
- 24C. OrdoñezM
- 27S. BritschgiD
- 29F. CarboniD
- 40E. CorviG
- 66F. RinaldiG
Udinese
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Arthur Atta | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4/6 |
| Jesper Karlstrom(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Jürgen Ekkelenkamp | F | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hassane Kamara | M | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jakub Piotrowski | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue | M | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Christian Kabasele | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolò Zaniolo | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2/7 |
| Thomas Kristensen | D | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Maduka Okoye | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniele Padelli | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Răzvan Sava | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lennon Miller | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdoulaye Camara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vakoun Bayo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Arizala | M | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Buksa | F | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Branimir Mlačić | D | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oier Zarraga | M | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Idrissa Gueye | F | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
Parma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Strefezza | F | 66 | 8.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Alessandro Circati | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Emanuele Valeri | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Adrián Bernabé | F | 66 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Abdoulaye Ndiaye | D | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Zion Suzuki | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mandela Keita | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | M | 72 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Mariano Troilo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Enrico Delprato(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Franco Carboni | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filippo Rinaldi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edoardo Corvi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaetano Oristanio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Sørensen | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pontus Almqvist | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Valenti | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nesta Elphege | F | 45 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Sascha Britschgi | D | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Ordoñez | M | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Ondrejka | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Estévez | M | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |