Twente vs Ajax
Twente snatch late draw against Ajax
A stoppage-time penalty from Wout Weghorst rescues a point for Twente in a thrilling 2-2 Eredivisie clash.
Ajax looked set for victory with early and second-half goals from T. Arokodare and Rayane Bounida, including an own goal by D. Janse that extended their lead. However, Twente fought back with a last-gasp penalty from W. Weghorst in the 90+5' to level the score. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an Ajax win, turning what seemed a likely away victory into a hard-earned share of the spoils.
Outcome probability
This upcoming fixture between Twente and Ajax promises to be a cracker, with both sides showing attacking intent this season. Expect goals and drama as Ajax look to extend their impressive away form.
Match factors
Ajax's attacking midfield creativity
Ajax's midfielders like Gloukh and Brandt provide high assist and goal rates, creating multiple scoring chances.
Weghorst's prolific scoring form
Weghorst has scored 4 goals in last 5 away matches, making him a key scoring threat for Twente.
Van Rooij's doubtful availability
Van Rooij's doubtful status may weaken Twente's defense and passing reliability if he misses the match.
Ajax's strong away scoring streak
Ajax has scored in all last 5 away matches, indicating strong offensive momentum on the road.
The context
Twente currently sit 4th in the league with 20 points from 10 games, boasting a solid record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Ajax are just behind in 2nd place with 24 points from 11 games, having lost only once. The two teams have met 19 times before, with Ajax holding a slight edge in victories.
Key insights
Oscar Gloukh
Ajax
Top assister for Ajax with 4 assists this season, driving their attacking creativity.
Eredivisie 26/274 assists in 10 appearances, 0.4 assists/game
Julian Brandt
Ajax
Consistent scorer with 6 goals in 10 games, also contributing assists, making him a key attacking threat.
Eredivisie 26/276 goals and 2 assists in 10 appearances
- W
W. Weghorst
Twente
Prolific scoring form with 4 goals in last 5 away matches, a constant threat for Ajax's defence.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in last 5 away matches
- B
B. van Rooij
Twente
Doubtful status could weaken Twente's defensive stability and passing accuracy if he misses out.
Eredivisie 26/27High passing accuracy (88-89%) and defensive contributions
Analysis
Ajax's attacking midfield creativity, led by Oscar Gloukh with 4 assists this season, and Julian Brandt's goal threat, makes them a formidable force on the road. Twente's Wout Weghorst remains a consistent goal threat, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 away matches. However, Twente's defensive stability could be compromised if defender B. van Rooij, who is doubtful, misses out. The predicted halftime score of 2-1 in favour of Ajax aligns with the expectation of a high-scoring, closely contested match.
Key facts
- 1.Ajax are 2nd in the league with 24 points from 11 games (W7 D3 L1).
- 2.Twente are 4th with 20 points from 10 games (W6 D2 L2).
- 3.Ajax have a significantly better goal difference than Twente this season.
- 4.In 19 head-to-head meetings, Ajax have won 9, Twente 5, with 5 draws.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals per game.
- 6.Ajax have scored in all of their last 5 away matches.
- 7.Julian Brandt has scored 6 goals in 10 games this season.
- 8.Wout Weghorst has scored 4 goals in his last 5 away matches.
Prediction
We see Ajax clinching a 3-2 victory away at Twente. The match is likely to be tight, with Ajax's superior goal difference and strong away scoring streak tipping the scales. Expect a lively encounter with goals from key players like Julian Brandt and Toluwalase Arokodare.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Twente
No standout top scorers flagged for Twente
Away — Ajax
The verdict
In summary, this fixture should provide plenty of entertainment with Ajax narrowly coming out on top. Twente will push hard, but Ajax's attacking quality and recent form suggest they will take the points in this league stage match.
Prediction generated 1 Nov 2026, 15:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Arokodare
Assist: Gloukh
Rosa
Yellow Card
Arokodare
Yellow Card
Klaassen
Pröpper
Yellow Card
Bissouma
Bouwman
Yellow Card
Bounida
Assist: Gloukh
Janse (OG)
Taha
Gloukh
Yellow Card
Penalty cancelled
Baas
Weidmann
Yellow Card
Adelgaard
Weidmann
Gloukh
Arokodare
Zerrouki
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Wijndal
Yellow Card
Weghorst
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
Match Statistics
Twente
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 10Y. TahaM
- 11D. RotsM
- 16J. DrommelG
- 27S. ØrjasæterM
- 28B. van RooijD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
Substitutes
- 2M. RosiakD
- 7M. PjacaF
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 18Jordy BawuahM
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 22R. PasveerG
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
Ajax
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 5O. WijndalD
- 10O. GloukhM
- 15Y. BaasM
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 24J. MokioM
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 36D. JanseD
- 99T. ArokodareF
Substitutes
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 17D. BlindD
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 22J. HeerkensG
- 26M. PaesG
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 67Mohamed AbdallaM
- 68A. OuazaneM
Twente
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Weghorst | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Pjaca | F | 21 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Nijstad | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Rots | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. van Rooij | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| A. Adelgaard | D | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| D. Weidmann | M | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| S. Ørjasæter | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| R. Pröpper | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Zerrouki | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. van den Belt | M | 8 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Drommel | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Taha | M | 69 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| K. Hlynsson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Pasveer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rosiak | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Kurowski | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordy Bawuah | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Gerritsen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Ajax
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Gloukh | M | 87 | 7.9 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 5/7 |
| Rayane Bounida | F | 31 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| T. Arokodare | F | 87 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. ter Stegen | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Bissouma | M | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Marcos Leonardo | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Rosa | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Y. Baas | M | 79 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| J. Mokio | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| D. Blind | D | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bouwman | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Amrabat | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Janse | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Ouazane | M | 3 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Wijndal | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Klaassen | M | 59 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mohamed Abdalla | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jofre Torrents | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Heerkens | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Edvardsen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Paes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Henrique | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Twente vs Ajax?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Ajax to win against Twente.
- What score did Fipster predict for Twente vs Ajax?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Twente 2–3 Ajax.
- What were the win probabilities for Twente vs Ajax?
- Fipster's model gave Twente a 5% chance of winning, Ajax a 90% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 90% confidence — a high-confidence call.