Türkiye vs Italy
Italy storms Türkiye with early blitz
A commanding 4-1 victory sees Italy dominate from the off.
Italy put on a clinical display in the UEFA Nations League, racing to a 3-0 lead inside the first half with goals from A. Bastoni, D. Frattesi, and M. Kayode. Despite a quick reply from B. Yılmaz just after the break, Italy sealed the emphatic win with F. Esposito's strike shortly after. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win for Türkiye, turning the fixture into a one-sided affair.
Outcome probability
Türkiye and Italy face off in a League A match where both teams are looking to find their scoring touch after recent goalless outings. Expect a tight contest with defensive discipline and midfield battles shaping the game.
Match factors
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both Türkiye and Italy have no confirmed absences, allowing full squad strength.
Both teams struggling to score recently
Türkiye and Italy both failed to score in their last matches, indicating attacking challenges.
Türkiye's defensive solidity at home
Türkiye's defenders like A. Bardakcı and Z. Çelik showed strong tackling and passing, key to containing Italy's attack.
Italy's midfield control potential
Italy's midfielders Barella and Cambiaghi have high passing volumes and ratings, suggesting control in midfield battles.
The context
This fixture is part of the League A phase, with both Türkiye and Italy yet to register points in the competition. Türkiye sit second and Italy third in the standings, each having played one match and lost. Both sides will be eager to bounce back and claim vital points early in the campaign.
Key insights
- A
A. Bardakcı
Türkiye
Strong defensive presence with 3 tackles in last match, key to Türkiye's defensive resilience at home.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 tackles in last match, above average tackling compared to league defenders (0.94 avg).
- A
A. Güler
Türkiye
Creative midfielder likely to influence attacking transitions with high involvement in attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Highest rating (7.2) among Türkiye players in last match, 3 shots and 46 passes.
- N
N. Barella
Italy
Key midfield engine with strong passing and work rate, likely to influence tempo and distribution.
UEFA Nations League 26/2767 passes in last match, strong passing stats.
- N
N. Cambiaghi
Italy
Contributes offensively and defensively, potential creative outlet on the wings.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Rated 7.2 in last Italy match.
Analysis
Türkiye's defensive resilience at home, led by the likes of A. Bardakcı who boasts strong tackling stats, will be key to containing Italy's midfield maestros Barella and Cambiaghi. Italy's midfield control and passing prowess suggest they will press for dominance, but Türkiye's creative midfielder A. Güler could influence attacking transitions effectively. Both teams have struggled to score recently, indicating a closely fought match likely decided by fine margins.
Key facts
- 1.Türkiye have played 1 match in this competition (0W 0D 1L, GF 0 / GA 1).
- 2.Italy have played 1 match in this competition (0W 0D 1L, GF 0 / GA 2).
- 3.Türkiye are ranked 2nd in this competition with 0 points from 0 games.
- 4.Italy are ranked 3rd in this competition with 0 points from 0 games.
- 5.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Türkiye.
- 6.Halftime score 1-0 is the most likely scenario, consistent with the final score prediction.
- 7.A. Bardakcı is a key defensive figure for Türkiye with strong tackling stats.
- 8.Italy's midfielders Barella and Cambiaghi have high passing volumes and ratings.
Prediction
The forecast is a narrow 2-1 win for Türkiye, with the halftime score likely to be 1-0. While the probabilities for all outcomes are fairly close, Türkiye hold a slight edge, especially given their defensive solidity and home advantage. Expect a competitive match with a few cards, around four in total.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Türkiye
Away — Italy
The verdict
In summary, this League A fixture promises a tight battle with Türkiye just shading it 2-1 over Italy. Both teams will be keen to improve their scoring records, but Türkiye's home form and defensive strength could prove decisive in securing the win.
Prediction generated 25 Sep 2026, 20:46 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Bastoni
Frattesi
Kayode
Assist: Esposito
Uzun
Yellow Card
Kökçü
Uzun
Raspadori
Demiral
Yılmaz
Assist: Aydın
Esposito
Yılmaz
Yellow Card
Esposito
Kabak
Yellow Card
Esposito
Özcan
Fagioli
Yılmaz
Frattesi
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Türkiye
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1A. BayındırG
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 3M. DemiralD
- 5S. ÖzcanM
- 6O. KökçüM
- 10A. GülerF
- 11C. UzunF
- 13E. ElmalıM
- 15O. KabakD
- 18O. AydınM
- 21B. YılmazF
Substitutes
- 4S. AkaydinD
- 7K. AktürkoğluF
- 8E. TıknazM
- 9D. GülF
- 12M. ŞengezerG
- 14A. BardakcıD
- 16İ. YüksekM
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 19Y. AkgünF
- 20F. KadıoğluD
- 22M. EskihellaçD
- 23O. KocukG
Italy
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 2M. KayodeD
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 6N. FagioliM
- 7F. EspositoF
- 8S. TonaliM
- 10G. RaspadoriF
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 19G. ScalviniD
- 21A. BastoniD
- 23S. EspositoF
Substitutes
- 4A. RomanoM
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 9M. KeanF
- 11G. ScamaccaF
- 12M. CarnesecchiG
- 13R. MandragoraM
- 14G. VicarioG
- 15I. DoumbiaM
- 17N. CambiaghiF
- 18A. VergaraM
- 20D. GhilardiD
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
Türkiye
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Yılmaz | F | 80 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| D. Gül | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| İ. Yüksek | M | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| E. Elmalı | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Güler | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4/6 |
| S. Özcan | M | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tıknaz | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| O. Aydın | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| K. Aktürkoğlu | F | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Z. Çelik | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Bardakcı | D | 44 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Uzun | F | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| F. Kadıoğlu | D | 0 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Demiral | D | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bayındır | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Kabak | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| O. Kökçü | M | 46 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Y. Akgün | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| İ. Kahveci | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Kocuk | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Şengezer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Eskihellaç | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Akaydin | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Italy
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Esposito | F | 75 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| M. Kayode | D | 90 | 8.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Frattesi | M | 82 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| A. Bastoni | D | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ruggeri | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Scalvini | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Donnarumma | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Raspadori | F | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| S. Tonali | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| N. Fagioli | M | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| G. Di Lorenzo | D | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Romano | M | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| I. Doumbia | M | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Cambiaghi | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Esposito | F | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Scamacca | F | 15 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Mandragora | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kean | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Vergara | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ghilardi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Vicario | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Türkiye vs Italy?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Türkiye to win against Italy.
- What score did Fipster predict for Türkiye vs Italy?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Türkiye 2–1 Italy.
- What were the win probabilities for Türkiye vs Italy?
- Fipster's model gave Türkiye a 38% chance of winning, Italy a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 38% confidence — a low-confidence call.