Italy vs Türkiye
Match recap
Italy beat Türkiye 3–1 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Scamacca, Calafiori, and Esposito scored for Italy; Şimşir replied for Türkiye. Italy held 45% possession to 55% for Türkiye.
Outcome probability
Italy and Türkiye face off in a League A encounter where Italy's recent form and head-to-head record suggest a comfortable home win. Expect Italy to take control early and maintain pressure throughout the match.
Match factors
Italy's defenders pose dual threat
Italy's defenders Bastoni and Kayode have scored recently, adding unexpected attacking options
Italy's attacking form vs Türkiye's defense
Italy averages 1.67 goals per game with key players scoring consistently; Türkiye concedes 2.67 goals on average
Esposito's recent impact
Esposito has 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 games with high match rating, driving Italy's offense
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions, so all key players are available to influence the match
The context
In this League A round 4 fixture, Italy have played three matches with a record of one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring five goals and conceding four. Türkiye, on the other hand, have struggled with three losses, scoring just once and conceding eight. Historically, Italy have dominated their meetings with Türkiye, winning three out of four encounters and averaging over three goals per game in these clashes.
Key insights
Alessandro Bastoni
Italy
Bastoni has been a standout performer with 2 goals in the last 3 games, providing a rare attacking threat from defence and maintaining high passing accuracy.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in last 3 games, 1 goal this season in 1 appearance
Francesco Esposito
Italy
Esposito leads Italy's offensive charge with 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 appearances, boasting a high match rating and key involvement in recent matches against Türkiye.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist and 1 goal in 2 appearances this season
Davide Frattesi
Italy
Frattesi has shown good form with a goal against Türkiye and a solid defensive work rate, contributing both offensively and defensively.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances this season
Barış Yılmaz
Türkiye
Yılmaz is Türkiye's only goal scorer so far and a regular starter, but limited team chances restrict his impact.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances this season
Analysis
Italy's attacking prowess is highlighted by defenders Alessandro Bastoni and Michael Kayode, who have both contributed goals recently, adding an unexpected threat from the back. Midfielder Davide Frattesi and attacker Francesco Esposito have also been influential, with Esposito providing both goals and assists. Türkiye's limited scoring and defensive vulnerabilities make it difficult for them to contain Italy's multi-faceted attack. Both teams have full squads available, but Italy's form and tactical advantages are clear.
Key facts
- 1.Italy have played 3 matches in this competition (W1 D1 L1, GF 5 / GA 4)
- 2.Türkiye have played 3 matches in this competition (W0 D0 L3, GF 1 / GA 8)
- 3.In 4 head-to-head meetings, Italy have won 3, Türkiye have won 0, with 1 draw
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.3 total goals (10 for Italy, 3 for Türkiye)
- 5.Alessandro Bastoni has scored 2 goals in last 3 games, including vs Türkiye
- 6.Francesco Esposito has 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 appearances this season
- 7.Davide Frattesi scored recently vs Türkiye and has 1 goal in 2 appearances
- 8.Türkiye's only goal scorer is Barış Yılmaz with 1 goal in 2 games
Prediction
We predict Italy to lead 1-0 at halftime and extend their dominance to a 3-0 fulltime victory. The home side's ability to score from various positions and maintain defensive solidity should see them comfortably outclass Türkiye in this fixture. Expect a total of around four cards as the match intensity rises.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Italy
Away — Türkiye
The verdict
Italy look set to continue their strong League A campaign with a commanding win over Türkiye. Their blend of defensive goals and attacking creativity should prove too much for the visitors, who will struggle to find the net. A 3-0 scoreline seems the natural conclusion to this encounter.
Prediction generated 2 Oct 2026, 20:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Scamacca
Scamacca
Yellow Card
Ruggeri
Yellow Card
Çelik
Yellow Card
Di Lorenzo
Scamacca
Ruggeri
Şimşir
Assist: Elmalı
Calafiori
Assist: Barella
Kahveci
Şimşir
Barella
Yüksek
Bardakcı
Yellow Card
Vergara
Esposito
Assist: Romano
Kadıoğlu
Akgün
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Italy
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6A. BastoniD
- 11G. ScamaccaF
- 15I. DoumbiaM
- 17D. MaldiniF
- 18N. BarellaM
- 21A. VergaraF
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 23G. ManciniD
Substitutes
- 2M. KayodeD
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 7N. CambiaghiF
- 8S. TonaliM
- 9F. EspositoF
- 10N. FagioliM
- 12M. CarnesecchiG
- 13G. VicarioG
- 14S. InacioF
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 19G. ScalviniD
- 20S. EspositoF
Türkiye
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1U. ÇakırG
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 5S. ÖzcanM
- 10İ. KahveciM
- 13E. ElmalıD
- 14A. BardakcıD
- 15O. KabakD
- 16İ. YüksekM
- 19Y. AkgünF
- 20F. KadıoğluD
- 21A. ŞimşirM
Substitutes
- 3M. DemiralD
- 4E. TopçuD
- 6B. ElmazM
- 7K. AktürkoğluF
- 8E. TıknazM
- 9D. GülF
- 11I. FakiliF
- 12A. BayındırG
- 17M. KabasakalM
- 18O. AydınF
- 22M. EskihellaçD
- 23M. ŞengezerG
Italy
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Scamacca | F | 56 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Calafiori | D | 34 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| G. Donnarumma | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Barella | M | 70 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Romano | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| F. Esposito | F | 34 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Bastoni | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Mancini | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Di Lorenzo | D | 55 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| M. Kayode | D | 35 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Ruggeri | D | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| I. Doumbia | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3/3 |
| D. Maldini | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Frattesi | M | 6 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Vergara | F | 84 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/6 |
| S. Tonali | M | 20 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Vicario | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Cambiaghi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fagioli | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Esposito | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Inacio | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Scalvini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Türkiye
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Şimşir | M | 70 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| E. Elmalı | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Y. Akgün | F | 88 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3/5 |
| S. Özcan | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| B. Elmaz | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| İ. Kahveci | M | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| K. Aktürkoğlu | F | 11 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| O. Kabak | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| O. Aydın | F | 2 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| İ. Yüksek | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| I. Fakili | F | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| F. Kadıoğlu | D | 88 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Bardakcı | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Gül | F | 2 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| U. Çakır | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Çelik | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Şengezer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Eskihellaç | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kabasakal | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tıknaz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Demiral | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Topçu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bayındır | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Italy vs Türkiye?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Italy to win against Türkiye.
- What score did Fipster predict for Italy vs Türkiye?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Italy 3–0 Türkiye.
- What were the win probabilities for Italy vs Türkiye?
- Fipster's model gave Italy a 85% chance of winning, Türkiye a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.