Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Match recap
Toulouse beat Strasbourg 3–1 in their Ligue 1 fixture. Hidalgo, McKenzie, and Jørgensen scored for Toulouse; Reyna replied for Strasbourg. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.08 for Toulouse versus 0.57 for Strasbourg. Toulouse sit 12th in the Ligue 1 table while Strasbourg are 13th.
Outcome probability
Toulouse and Strasbourg meet in what promises to be a closely contested Ligue 1 fixture. Both sides have shown similar form this season, making this a match where neither will want to lose ground.
Match factors
Toulouse's Tengstedt as focal attacking threat
Casper Tengstedt's prolific scoring and high involvement make him a key threat against Strasbourg's defense
Cásseres' creative dominance for Toulouse
Cristian Cásseres leads assists with 5 in 8 games, providing a creative edge and set-piece threat
Strasbourg's Yassine in good scoring form
Gessime Yassine has 4 goals and 3 assists, showing strong recent offensive form for Strasbourg
Doubtful attackers may influence lineups
Strasbourg's Amo-Ameyaw and Toulouse's Russell-Rowe are doubtful, capping their scoring and assist probabilities
The context
Currently sitting 11th and 12th respectively in the league with 10 points each, Toulouse and Strasbourg are neck and neck in the standings. Their head-to-head record shows Strasbourg with a slight edge, having won 7 of their 14 meetings compared to Toulouse's 3 wins, with 4 draws in between. Matches between these two tend to be moderately high scoring, averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Key insights
Casper Tengstedt
Toulouse
Tengstedt's prolific scoring and high involvement make him a key threat against Strasbourg's defence.
Ligue 1 26/275 goals in 6 appearances, 0.83 goals/game
- C
Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr.
Toulouse
Cásseres leads assists with 5 in 8 games, providing a creative edge and set-piece threat.
Ligue 1 26/275 assists in 8 appearances, 0.63 assists/game
Gessime Yassine
Strasbourg
Yassine has 4 goals and 3 assists, showing strong recent offensive form for Strasbourg.
Ligue 1 26/274 goals in 9 appearances, 0.44 goals/game
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Toulouse
Russell-Rowe is doubtful, which caps his scoring and assist probabilities for this match.
Ligue 1 26/272 goals in 8 appearances, 0.25 goals/game
Analysis
The first half is expected to be cagey, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline the most likely scenario. Toulouse's Casper Tengstedt leads the scoring charts for his side with 5 goals in 6 games and will be a key threat. His creativity is well supported by Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr., who tops the assist charts with 5 assists in 8 appearances. Strasbourg will rely on Gessime Yassine, their leading scorer and playmaker, who has 4 goals and 3 assists this season. Both teams have some doubts over key attackers, which could limit their offensive output and contribute to a balanced contest.
Key facts
- 1.Strasbourg leads head-to-head with 7 wins in 14 matches; Toulouse has 3 wins and 4 draws.
- 2.Toulouse and Strasbourg are 11th and 12th in the league, both with 10 points.
- 3.Head-to-head matches average 2.7 goals, indicating moderate scoring games.
- 4.Casper Tengstedt is Toulouse's top scorer with 5 goals in 6 games.
- 5.Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr. leads Toulouse with 5 assists in 8 games.
- 6.Gessime Yassine leads Strasbourg with 4 goals and 3 assists this season.
- 7.Both teams have doubtful attackers which may affect their attacking options.
Prediction
Given the close league positions, balanced head-to-head record, and the presence of key attacking threats on both sides, a 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome. The match is expected to remain tight throughout, with both teams sharing the points after a goalless first half and goals coming in the second.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toulouse
Away — Strasbourg
The verdict
This fixture is finely balanced, with both Toulouse and Strasbourg showing similar strengths and vulnerabilities. Fans can expect a competitive match with moments of quality from standout players, but ultimately a draw seems the fairest result.
Prediction generated 1 Nov 2026, 21:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
Yellow Card
Yassine
Yellow Card
Tapé
Yellow Card
Jørgensen
Yellow Card
Hidalgo
Assist: Oppong
Goal confirmed
McKenzie
Assist: Cásseres
Sigur
Yellow Card
Yassine
Harder
Godo
Reyna
Hidalgo
Reyna
Oppong
Jørgensen
Assist: Nicolaisen
Dário Essugo
Ortega
Yellow Card
Diallo
Jørgensen
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 23 |
| 11 |  Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Toulouse
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 11S. OppongM
- 12C. TapéD
- 14N. SigurM
- 16G. RestesG
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 23C. CásseresM
- 94I. DialloD
Substitutes
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 6A. VossahM
- 7Julián VignoloF
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 37Y. AziziF
- 44G. BakhoucheD
- 60M. NifloreG
Strasbourg
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1F. JörgensenG
- 6I. DoukouréD
- 10G. ReynaM
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 20M. GodoF
- 24L. HøgsbergD
- 29S. El MourabetM
- 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
- 36OsoD
- 40C. HarderF
- 80Gessime YassineF
Substitutes
- 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
- 11S. NanasiM
- 12M. PiekutowskiG
- 16G. AntwiD
- 21P. DiopM
- 23Diogo SousaM
- 28Tyrese NoubissieM
- 30J. OrtegaF
- 43Y. BeckerD
Toulouse
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Hidalgo | F | 67 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| T. Jørgensen | M | 92 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| M. McKenzie | D | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| C. Cásseres | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| R. Nicolaisen | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Oppong | M | 72 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| C. Tengstedt | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1/6 |
| G. Restes | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Russell-Rowe | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Azizi | F | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Sigur | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Tapé | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Diallo | D | 92 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Niflore | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Schmidt | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Bakhouche | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Vignolo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Koumbassa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Vossah | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Strasbourg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Reyna | M | 70 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Amo-Ameyaw | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Gessime Yassine | F | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 4/6 |
| I. Doukouré | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Høgsberg | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Godo | F | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| S. El Mourabet | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Harder | F | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Ortega | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dário Essugo | M | 77 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Nanasi | M | 28 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| P. Diop | M | 13 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oso | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Abdoul Karim Coulibaly | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Diogo Sousa | M | 20 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Jörgensen | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Piekutowski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Antwi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Becker | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrese Noubissie | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Toulouse and Strasbourg.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toulouse 1–1 Strasbourg.
- What were the win probabilities for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
- Fipster's model gave Toulouse a 33% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.