Toulouse vs Lille
Ueda's strike secures Lille narrow win
A solitary goal from A. Ueda in the second half was enough to tip the scales in Lille's favour at Toulouse.
Lille edged out Toulouse 1-0 thanks to A. Ueda's decisive goal in the 73rd minute. The match was a tight affair with little to separate the sides until that breakthrough. Fipster's prediction of an away win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline, proving the call was sound if not spot on.
Outcome probability
The new Ligue 1 season kicks off with Toulouse facing Lille in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Both teams are eager to set the tone early, with Lille looking to leverage their summer signing and overall squad strength.
Key facts
- 1.Lille finished last season with a significantly better goal difference than Toulouse.
- 2.The arrival of B. Önal strengthens Lille's attacking options for the new season.
- 3.This is the first competitive match of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season for both teams.
- 4.Lille are predicted to win 2-1 away at Toulouse.
- 5.The prediction favours an away win with a low confidence level, indicating a closely contested match.
The context
This match marks the first competitive fixture of the 2026-27 campaign for both sides. Toulouse and Lille will be keen to start positively after their respective finishes last season. Lille have bolstered their squad with the arrival of B. Önal, aiming to add firepower and creativity upfront.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toulouse
Away — Lille
Analysis
Lille enter this fixture with a superior goal difference from last season, suggesting a more potent attack or tighter defence compared to Toulouse. The addition of B. Önal could provide an extra edge in breaking down Toulouse's defence. While Toulouse will be motivated to challenge, Lille's overall squad depth and recent business give them a slight advantage.
Prediction
The forecast sees Lille narrowly winning 2-1, reflecting a closely fought contest but with Lille edging ahead thanks to their attacking options. The prediction leans towards an away win, though the margin is expected to be tight.
The verdict
As the season opener, this match sets the stage for what could be an intriguing campaign. Lille's slight edge in squad strength and goal difference might just be enough to secure the three points, but Toulouse will surely make them work for it.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Hidalgo
Yellow Card
Penalty cancelled
Sahraoui
Verdonk
Hidalgo
Mbappé
Giroud
Russell-Rowe
Messali
Bentaleb
Restes
Vossah
Ueda
Match Statistics
Toulouse
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 6A. VossahM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 9S. HidalgoM
- 12C. TapéD
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 16G. RestesG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 23C. CásseresM
- 37Y. AziziM
Substitutes
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 7Julián VignoloF
- 11S. OppongF
- 14N. SigurM
- 18M. AmougouM
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 60M. NifloreG
- 94I. DialloD
Lille
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 6N. BentalebM
- 8E. MbappéM
- 9O. GiroudF
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 11O. SahraouiM
- 21B. AndréM
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 24C. VerdonkD
Substitutes
- 7D. BakwaF
- 12O. GillG
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 15R. PerraudD
- 17N. MukauM
- 18A. UedaF
- 19B. ÖnalF
- 26I. CossierD
- 28G. PerrinF
Toulouse
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Cásseres | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3/3 |
| M. McKenzie | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Nicolaisen | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| T. Jørgensen | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| C. Tapé | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Messali | D | 66 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Restes | G | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Hidalgo | M | 57 | 6.8 | — | — | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Vossah | M | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| N. Schmidt | M | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Niflore | G | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Diallo | D | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Julián Vignolo | F | 33 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| J. Russell-Rowe | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Azizi | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| C. Tengstedt | F | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| M. Amougou | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Sigur | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Koumbassa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Oppong | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lille
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Özer | G | 90 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ueda | F | 33 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Tiago Santos | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Ngoy | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| H. Haraldsson | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| B. André | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| C. Verdonk | D | 46 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Mukau | M | 33 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Perraud | D | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Mbappé | M | 57 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| O. Sahraoui | M | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| N. Bentaleb | M | 71 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bakwa | F | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| O. Giroud | F | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Önal | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kjærgaard | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Gill | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Perrin | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Cossier | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toulouse vs Lille?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lille to win against Toulouse.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toulouse vs Lille?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toulouse 1–2 Lille.
- What were the win probabilities for Toulouse vs Lille?
- Fipster's model gave Toulouse a 32% chance of winning, Lille a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 36% confidence — a low-confidence call.