Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Toulouse and Troyes settle for stalemate
A goalless draw keeps both sides waiting for breakthrough moments.
Toulouse and Estac Troyes played out a 0-0 draw in Ligue 1, with neither side able to find the net. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, leaving both teams to reflect on missed opportunities rather than celebrated goals.
Outcome probability
Toulouse and Estac Troyes face off in the Ligue 1 regular season round 8, with Toulouse currently enjoying a better run in the league. Both teams will be eager to improve their standings, but the stats suggest a tight contest with Toulouse holding the upper hand.
Match factors
Toulouse's attacking trio in strong form
Tengstedt, Jørgensen, and Russell-Rowe have combined for multiple goals recently, boosting home scoring chances
Cristian Cásseres Jr. excels in assists and passing
Cásseres leads Toulouse with 4 assists in last 5 games and 84% passing accuracy, key to creating chances
Toulouse's scoring streak away from home
Toulouse has scored in 4 consecutive away games, indicating strong offensive momentum
Troyes missing key defenders
Troyes confirmed out defender A. Ouzenadji weakens their defense, increasing Toulouse's scoring opportunities
Toulouse midfield control via Cásseres and Jørgensen
Strong midfield duo with high passing and tackling rates likely to dominate possession and supply forwards
The context
Toulouse sit 7th in the league with 9 points from 7 games, while Estac Troyes are struggling near the bottom at 17th with just 4 points from 6 matches. The goal difference also tells a story, with Toulouse at +1 and Troyes at -9, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities for the visitors.
Key insights
Casper Tengstedt
Toulouse
Leading scorer with 5 goals in last 5 games, key to Toulouse’s attacking threat.
Ligue 1 26/275 goals in last 5 games, 4 this season, 4 appearances
- C
Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr.
Toulouse
Top assister with 4 assists in last 5 games and 84% passing accuracy, crucial in chance creation.
Ligue 1 26/274 assists in last 5 games, 4 this season, 6 appearances
Thomas Jørgensen
Toulouse
Consistent starter contributing goals and assists, boosting midfield control.
Ligue 1 26/272 goals in 6 appearances, 1 goal in last 5 games
Analysis
Toulouse's attacking trio, led by Casper Tengstedt who has netted 5 goals in his last 5 games, is in fine form and likely to trouble Troyes' defence. Midfield maestro Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr. has been instrumental with 4 assists in the last 5 games and an impressive 84% passing accuracy, orchestrating chances effectively. Troyes, missing key defenders, may find it tough to contain Toulouse's offensive threat, despite their efforts to claw back in the league.
Key facts
- 1.Toulouse rank 7th with 9 points from 7 games (W2 D3 L2).
- 2.Estac Troyes are 17th with 4 points from 6 games (W1 D1 L4).
- 3.Toulouse have a goal difference of +1; Troyes have -9.
- 4.Toulouse average 1.29 points per game, Troyes 0.67.
- 5.Casper Tengstedt has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games.
- 6.Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr. has 4 assists in the last 5 games with 84% passing accuracy.
- 7.Troyes are missing a key defender, weakening their backline.
Prediction
The forecast is a home win for Toulouse with a 2-1 scoreline. While the halftime score remains uncertain, the fulltime result favours Toulouse due to their superior form and attacking momentum. Expect a competitive match with both sides finding the net, but Toulouse edging it in the end.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toulouse
Away — Estac Troyes
No standout top scorers flagged for Estac Troyes
The verdict
In summary, Toulouse's stronger league position, better goal difference, and key player performances make them favourites to claim all three points. Estac Troyes will fight hard but are likely to come up just short in this encounter.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 20:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Messali
Yellow Card
Dønnum
Yellow Card
Diaz
Yellow Card
Cásseres
Yellow Card
Nkada
Yellow Card
Messali
Dønnum
Nkada
Ripart
Sigur
Yellow Card
Jørgensen
Russell-Rowe
Yellow Card
Vossah
Yellow Card
McKenzie
Yellow Card
Diop
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 23 |
| 11 |  Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Toulouse
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 12C. TapéD
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 14N. SigurM
- 15A. DønnumM
- 16G. RestesG
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 22R. MessaliD
- 23C. CásseresM
Substitutes
- 1T. CollinG
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 6A. VossahM
- 7Julián VignoloF
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 37Y. AziziF
- 94I. DialloD
Estac Troyes
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 4M. DiazD
- 5P. GozziD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 8M. DiopM
- 10M. IfnaouiF
- 17A. MilleM
- 20R. RipartF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 29D. KarimM
- 40H. KonatéG
Substitutes
- 7K. DiawaraF
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 11I. GomisM
- 22H. PicardM
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 33P. BeachG
- 36I. SoukounaM
Toulouse
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Nicolaisen | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Jørgensen | M | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| C. Cásseres | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| G. Restes | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. McKenzie | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Sigur | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Tapé | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Hidalgo | F | 6 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dønnum | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| N. Schmidt | M | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Azizi | F | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Vossah | M | 32 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| C. Tengstedt | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| R. Messali | D | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| J. Russell-Rowe | F | 84 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Amougou | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Diallo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Vignolo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Koumbassa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Collin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estac Troyes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Monfray | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Maronnier | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mille | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Diaz | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Le Douaron | F | 17 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Konaté | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Karim | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| P. Gozzi | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Diawara | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Ripart | F | 73 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Ifnaoui | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Diop | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| T. Nkada | F | 73 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| I. Soukouna | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Phliponeau | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Gomis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Picard | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Beach | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Donkor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toulouse to win against Estac Troyes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toulouse 2–1 Estac Troyes.
- What were the win probabilities for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's model gave Toulouse a 35% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.