Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
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Challenge a friendToulouse and Estac Troyes face off in the Ligue 1 regular season round 8, with Toulouse currently enjoying a better run in the league. Both teams will be eager to improve their standings, but the stats suggest a tight contest with Toulouse holding the upper hand.
The context
Toulouse sit 7th in the league with 9 points from 7 games, while Estac Troyes are struggling near the bottom at 17th with just 4 points from 6 matches. The goal difference also tells a story, with Toulouse at +1 and Troyes at -9, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities for the visitors.
Match factors
Toulouse's attacking trio in strong form
Tengstedt, Jørgensen, and Russell-Rowe have combined for multiple goals recently, boosting home scoring chances
Cristian Cásseres Jr. excels in assists and passing
Cásseres leads Toulouse with 4 assists in last 5 games and 84% passing accuracy, key to creating chances
Toulouse's scoring streak away from home
Toulouse has scored in 4 consecutive away games, indicating strong offensive momentum
Troyes missing key defenders
Troyes confirmed out defender A. Ouzenadji weakens their defense, increasing Toulouse's scoring opportunities
Toulouse midfield control via Cásseres and Jørgensen
Strong midfield duo with high passing and tackling rates likely to dominate possession and supply forwards
Analysis
Toulouse's attacking trio, led by Casper Tengstedt who has netted 5 goals in his last 5 games, is in fine form and likely to trouble Troyes' defence. Midfield maestro Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr. has been instrumental with 4 assists in the last 5 games and an impressive 84% passing accuracy, orchestrating chances effectively. Troyes, missing key defenders, may find it tough to contain Toulouse's offensive threat, despite their efforts to claw back in the league.
Key insights
Casper Tengstedt
Toulouse
Leading scorer with 5 goals in last 5 games, key to Toulouse’s attacking threat.
Ligue 1 26/275 goals in last 5 games, 4 this season, 4 appearances
- C
Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr.
Toulouse
Top assister with 4 assists in last 5 games and 84% passing accuracy, crucial in chance creation.
Ligue 1 26/274 assists in last 5 games, 4 this season, 6 appearances
Thomas Jørgensen
Toulouse
Consistent starter contributing goals and assists, boosting midfield control.
Ligue 1 26/272 goals in 6 appearances, 1 goal in last 5 games
Prediction
The forecast is a home win for Toulouse with a 2-1 scoreline. While the halftime score remains uncertain, the fulltime result favours Toulouse due to their superior form and attacking momentum. Expect a competitive match with both sides finding the net, but Toulouse edging it in the end.
Key facts
- 1.Toulouse rank 7th with 9 points from 7 games (W2 D3 L2).
- 2.Estac Troyes are 17th with 4 points from 6 games (W1 D1 L4).
- 3.Toulouse have a goal difference of +1; Troyes have -9.
- 4.Toulouse average 1.29 points per game, Troyes 0.67.
- 5.Casper Tengstedt has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games.
- 6.Cristian Cásseres Yepes Jr. has 4 assists in the last 5 games with 84% passing accuracy.
- 7.Troyes are missing a key defender, weakening their backline.
The verdict
In summary, Toulouse's stronger league position, better goal difference, and key player performances make them favourites to claim all three points. Estac Troyes will fight hard but are likely to come up just short in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toulouse
Away — Estac Troyes
No standout top scorers flagged for Estac Troyes
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 20:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who does Fipster predict will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's AI model predicts Toulouse to win against Estac Troyes.
- What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster predicts a final score of Toulouse 2–1 Estac Troyes.
- What are the win probabilities for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's model gives Toulouse a 35% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident is Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigns this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.