Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls
Match recap
Toronto FC and New York Red Bulls drew 1–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Sallói scored for Toronto FC; Choupo-Moting replied for New York Red Bulls. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.28 for Toronto FC versus 1.79 for New York Red Bulls.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Toronto FC win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Toronto FC and New York Red Bulls face off in what promises to be a closely contested MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but Toronto's home form and creative midfield presence could prove decisive.
Match factors
Toronto FC's attacking midfield strength
Dániel Sallói's dual threat as top scorer and assister gives Toronto FC a creative edge in midfield.
Julian Hall's scoring form for New York Red Bulls
Hall leads his team with 10 goals and has scored 2 in last 5 games, providing a key threat.
Toronto FC's home scoring consistency
Toronto FC has scored in all last 5 home games, supporting their predicted 2 goals at home.
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries for either team ensures all key scorers and assisters are available.
Toronto FC's defensive stalwart Walker Zimmerman
Zimmerman provides strong defensive stability with above-average tackling and interceptions.
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season, with both teams looking to build momentum early in the campaign. Toronto FC have demonstrated consistent scoring at home, while New York Red Bulls rely on their top scorer Julian Hall to provide offensive firepower.
Key insights
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
Sallói's combined 7 goals and 6 assists make him a creative and scoring force for Toronto FC, crucial for their attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals and 6 assists in MLS 2026 season
Julian Hall
New York Red Bulls
Hall's 10 goals this season, including 2 in the last 5 games, highlight his importance as New York's main offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in MLS 2026 season
- W
Walker Zimmerman
Toronto FC
Zimmerman's defensive contributions with high tackles and interceptions provide Toronto FC with much-needed stability at the back.
Major League Soccer 26/27Above league average defensive stats in MLS 2026 season
Analysis
Toronto FC's attacking midfield maestro Dániel Sallói stands out with 7 goals and 6 assists this season, offering a dual threat that could unlock the Red Bulls' defence. Meanwhile, New York's Julian Hall leads his side with 10 goals, including recent scoring form that keeps the visitors dangerous. Toronto's defensive stability, anchored by Walker Zimmerman, complements their attacking strengths. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects a tight contest where Toronto's home scoring consistency and creative edge may just tip the balance.
Key facts
- 1.Toronto FC have scored in all of their last 5 home games this season.
- 2.Dániel Sallói leads Toronto FC with 7 goals and 6 assists this campaign.
- 3.Julian Hall is New York Red Bulls' top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 4.Walker Zimmerman provides defensive stability for Toronto FC with strong tackling and interceptions.
- 5.Toronto FC's predicted most likely scoreline is 2-1 in their favour.
- 6.No confirmed injuries for either team, so all key players are available.
Prediction
We forecast a narrow 2-1 victory for Toronto FC. Their home scoring record and key players' form suggest they can outscore New York Red Bulls, despite the visitors' threat. Expect a competitive match with both sides finding the net, but Toronto edging it in the end.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toronto FC
Away — New York Red Bulls
The verdict
In summary, Toronto FC's blend of creative midfield play and solid defence should see them claim a close win over New York Red Bulls. While the margin is slim, the home side's attacking consistency and key performers give them the slight upper hand in this MLS regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Dos Santos
Yellow Card
Voloder
Yellow Card
Cifuentes
Yellow Card
Sallói
Assist: Mihailović
Monlouis
Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Sofo
Cifuentes
Dos Santos
Donkor
Penalty cancelled
Edwards
Mihailović
Che
Choupo-Moting
Match Statistics
Toronto FC
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1L. GavranG
- 8J. CifuentesM
- 10D. MihailovićF
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 20D. SallóiF
- 21J. OsorioM
- 22R. LaryeaM
- 25W. ZimmermanD
- 44R. EdwardsM
Substitutes
- 6K. ThompsonM
- 9J. SargentF
- 11D. EtienneF
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 19K. FranklinD
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 29D. KerrF
- 76L. StefanovicD
- 78Malik HenryM
New York Red Bulls
Starting XI
- 2J. CheD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 6R. VoloderD
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 37M. SofoM
- 48R. DonkorM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
Substitutes
- 4G. BerggrenM
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 20J. MinaD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 66T. RosboroughM
- 70A. RojasF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
Toronto FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Walker Zimmerman | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Dániel Sallói | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Đorđe Mihailović | F | 87 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1/2 |
| José Cifuentes | M | 70 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jonathan Osorio(C) | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raheem Edwards | M | 82 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Benjamin Kuscevic | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Richie Laryea | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lazar Stefanovic | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kosi Thompson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Yarbrough | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deandre Kerr | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Kobe Franklin | D | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alonso Coello | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne Junior | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Josh Sargent | F | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Che | D | 89 | 8.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Adri Mehmeti | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Robert Voloder | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Ethan Horvath | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Hall | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Mohammed Sofo | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald Donkor | M | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Emil Forsberg(C) | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Matthew Dos Santos | D | 77 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Juan Mina | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Parker | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustav Berggren | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andy Rojas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Mosquera | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John McCarthy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | F | 13 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tanner Rosborough | M | 24 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Omar Valencia | D | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toronto FC to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toronto FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave Toronto FC a 35% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.