Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati
Match recap
Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati drew 1–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.52 for Toronto FC versus 0.66 for FC Cincinnati.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-2 Toronto FC win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Toronto FC and FC Cincinnati face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but Toronto FC's home form and key players give them the edge.
Match factors
Toronto FC's potent home attack led by Sargent and Sallói
Toronto FC's top scorers Sargent (7 goals) and Sallói (7 goals) have strong home form, supporting predicted 4 goals
FC Cincinnati's reliance on Denkey for goals
Denkey leads FC Cincinnati with 13 goals, including 5 in last 5 games, key threat despite injury to Evander
FC Cincinnati missing key midfielder Evander
Evander, top assister and scorer, is confirmed out, reducing creative options for FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC's strong assist contribution from Sallói and Mihailović
Sallói (6 assists) and Mihailović (5 assists) provide creative edge, above league average for their positions
Toronto FC's recent scoring streak at home
Toronto FC has scored in last 5 home games, indicating positive attacking momentum
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season, round 7. Historically, FC Cincinnati have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, winning 9 of 16 matches, while Toronto FC have won 5 with 2 draws. The average goals per match in these encounters is 2.8, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games.
Key insights
Josh Sargent
Toronto FC
Top scorer for Toronto FC with 7 goals, strong home scoring form with 3 goals in last 10 home games, key attacking role.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 21 apps, 0.33 goals/game
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
Leading assist provider with 6 assists and 7 goals, consistent starter with high minutes, crucial creative influence.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals and 6 assists in 28 apps, 0.25 goals/game, 0.21 assists/game
Ahoueke Denkey
FC Cincinnati
Leading scorer with 13 goals including 5 in last 5 games, vital attacking threat despite team's creative challenges.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 apps, 0.62 goals/game
Analysis
Toronto FC boast a strong attacking duo in Josh Sargent and Dániel Sallói, both with 7 goals this season and impressive home form. Their creative output is bolstered by Sallói and Djordje Mihailović, who lead the team in assists. FC Cincinnati rely heavily on Ahoueke Denkey, their leading scorer with 13 goals, including a remarkable recent run of 5 goals in 5 games. However, the absence of key midfielder Evander, a top assister and scorer, hampers their creative options. Toronto FC's recent scoring streak at home further supports their attacking momentum.
Key facts
- 1.In 16 meetings, Toronto FC have won 5, FC Cincinnati 9, with 2 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.8 total goals per game.
- 3.Toronto FC's top scorers Sargent and Sallói each have 7 goals this season.
- 4.FC Cincinnati's Denkey leads with 13 goals, including 5 in last 5 games.
- 5.Toronto FC have scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong attacking form.
- 6.Evander is out for FC Cincinnati, reducing their creative options.
- 7.Sallói and Mihailović provide a strong assist threat for Toronto FC.
- 8.Predicted total cards in the match is 3, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
We predict a home win for Toronto FC with a final scoreline of 4-2. The halftime score is expected to be 2-1, consistent with the fulltime outcome. The match should feature around three cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toronto FC
Away — FC Cincinnati
The verdict
In summary, Toronto FC's attacking prowess and home advantage should see them overcome FC Cincinnati in a thrilling 4-2 victory. Key players like Sargent and Sallói will be pivotal, while Cincinnati's reliance on Denkey may not be enough to prevent defeat.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kuscevic
Yellow Card
Osorio
Yellow Card
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
Yellow Card
Unknown
Unknown
Denkey
Yellow Card
Denkey
Red Card
Denkey
Yellow Card
Cifuentes
Pereira
Monlouis
Etienne
Unknown (OG)
Unknown
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
Unknown
Goal
Match Statistics
Toronto FC
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1L. GavranG
- 3Matheus PereiraM
- 8J. CifuentesF
- 9J. SargentF
- 11D. EtienneM
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 20D. SallóiF
- 21J. OsorioM
- 22R. LaryeaD
Substitutes
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 19K. FranklinD
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 64J. NolanM
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 76L. StefanovicD
- 77A. De RosarioG
- 78Malik HenryM
- 96R. ChukwuD
FC Cincinnati
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 10EvanderF
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónM
Substitutes
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 24K. SmithD
Toronto FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Osorio(C) | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Alonso Coello | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Richie Laryea | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Kuscevic | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| José Cifuentes | F | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 5/5 |
| Josh Sargent | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Dániel Sallói | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne Junior | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Adisa De Rosario | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Yarbrough | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Richard Chukwu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jahmarie Nolan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Markus Cimermancic | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lazar Stefanovic | D | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kobe Franklin | D | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
FC Cincinnati
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Celentano | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evander | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 4/6 |
| Bryan Ramirez | M | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kévin Denkey | F | 71 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gerardo Valenzuela | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Smith | D | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toronto FC to win against FC Cincinnati.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toronto FC 4–2 FC Cincinnati.
- What were the win probabilities for Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster's model gave Toronto FC a 95% chance of winning, FC Cincinnati a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.