Toronto FC vs DC United
Toronto FC clinches narrow win over DC United
A late strike from J. Sargent seals the deal after a spirited comeback.
DC United took an early lead through A. Dozzell's 29th-minute goal, but Toronto FC fought back with J. Osorio equalising after the break. J. Sargent then secured the victory with a decisive goal in the 86th minute. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was a tighter affair than the anticipated 4-1.
Outcome probability
Toronto FC and DC United face off in a regular season MLS clash where the home side looks poised to assert their attacking prowess early and often.
Match factors
Toronto FC's attacking midfield dominance
Dániel Sallói's dual threat as top scorer and assister gives Toronto FC a creative edge
Tai Baribo's prolific scoring for DC United
Baribo leads DC United with 15 goals, a key threat despite predicted loss
Toronto FC's strong home scoring streak
Toronto FC has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 4 goals
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries, so all top scorers and assisters are available to influence the match
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 MLS regular season, round 32. Historically, these teams have met 20 times with a fairly even spread of results, but recent form and home advantage tilt the scales towards Toronto FC.
Key insights
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
Sallói's dual role as top scorer and assist provider gives Toronto FC a creative and scoring edge at home.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals and 6 assists in 28 appearances
Tai Baribo
DC United
Baribo remains a consistent scoring threat with 15 goals, though it may not be enough to prevent defeat.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 23 appearances
- T
Toronto FC
Toronto FC
Toronto FC's recent home scoring streak supports the prediction of multiple goals in this match.
Major League Soccer 26/27Scored in last 5 home games
Jonathan Osorio
Toronto FC
Osorio's aggressive style and set-piece duties add an extra dimension to Toronto FC's midfield, though caution is advised due to his card risk.
Major League Soccer 26/277 yellow cards in 21 games
Analysis
Toronto FC's attacking midfield, led by Dániel Sallói, who boasts 8 goals and 6 assists this season, provides a creative edge that DC United will struggle to contain. Toronto FC have scored in their last five home games, suggesting a strong offensive rhythm. Meanwhile, DC United's top scorer Tai Baribo, with 15 goals, remains a threat but may find it tough to break through a well-organised Toronto defence. The predicted halftime score of 2-0 aligns with the expected fulltime 4-1 result, indicating Toronto FC's dominance from the outset.
Key facts
- 1.Toronto FC have scored in their last 5 home games this season.
- 2.Dániel Sallói leads Toronto FC with 8 goals and 6 assists in 28 appearances.
- 3.Tai Baribo is DC United's top scorer with 15 goals in 23 appearances.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC have won 4, DC United 6, with 10 draws.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals per game.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 2-0, consistent with the fulltime 4-1 result.
- 7.The match is expected to see around 4 cards issued.
Prediction
Expect Toronto FC to take an early lead and maintain control, finishing with a convincing 4-1 victory over DC United. The match is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but disciplined encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toronto FC
Away — DC United
The verdict
With all key players available and Toronto FC's strong home form, this match should see them comfortably outscore DC United. Fans can look forward to an entertaining display with plenty of goals and some spirited moments.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 01:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Dozzell
Assist: Hefti
Dorsch
Yellow Card
Sallói
Yellow Card
Rowles
Yellow Card
Nono
Yellow Card
Stroud
Yellow Card
Goal confirmed
Osorio
Assist: Sargent
Ordaz
Pereira
Yellow Card
Sargent
Mihailović
Stroud
Pereira
Sargent
Match Statistics
Toronto FC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1L. GavranG
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 6N. DorschM
- 7T. CorbeanuF
- 9J. SargentF
- 10D. MihailovićM
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 15N. GomisD
- 20D. SallóiF
- 21J. OsorioM
- 22R. LaryeaD
Substitutes
- 11D. EtienneF
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 38J. GilmanD
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 90L. MorganF
- 96R. ChukwuD
DC United
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 2K. NonoM
- 3L. BartlettD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowF
- 8J. StroudM
- 15K. RowlesD
- 21A. DozzellM
- 22N. OrdazF
Substitutes
- 12C. AntleyD
- 13S. NealisD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 24J. FarrG
- 25J. HopkinsM
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 40K. CastilloM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
Toronto FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sargent | F | 90 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2/4 |
| J. Osorio | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| B. Kuscevic | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Mihailović | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| L. Gavran | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Laryea | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| N. Gomis | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Dorsch | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Corbeanu | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| D. Sallói | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Alonso Coello | M | 1 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | D | 93 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Yarbrough | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Morgan | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Chukwu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gilman | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Cimermancic | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Monlouis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Etienne | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dozzell | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Bartlett | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Peltola | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| K. Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| S. Hefti | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Nealis | D | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Rowles | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Ordaz | F | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Peglow | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| B. Servania | M | 10 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Johnson | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Nono | M | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Stroud | M | 89 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| C. Antley | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hopkins | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Castillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bono | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Farr | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toronto FC vs DC United?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toronto FC to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toronto FC vs DC United?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toronto FC 4–1 DC United.
- What were the win probabilities for Toronto FC vs DC United?
- Fipster's model gave Toronto FC a 95% chance of winning, DC United a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.