Toronto FC vs Colorado Rapids
Match recap
Toronto FC beat Colorado Rapids 3–2 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Laryea, Steffen, and Sargent scored for Toronto FC; Aaronson and Rosenberry replied for Colorado Rapids. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.79 for Toronto FC versus 0.46 for Colorado Rapids.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Toronto FC win
Actual
3–2
Outcome probability
Toronto FC and Colorado Rapids face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season encounter. With Toronto FC's attacking flair and home form, they look poised to take control early and maintain pressure throughout the match.
Match factors
Toronto FC's attacking midfield creativity vs Rapids' defense
Toronto's Dániel Sallói and Alonso Coello provide strong creative and defensive midfield presence, likely to exploit Rapids' defensive gaps.
Joshua Sargent's strong home scoring form
Sargent averages 0.5 goals per game at home in last 10 matches, above league average striker rate, boosting Toronto's scoring chances.
Colorado Rapids' consistent scoring streak
Rapids have scored in their last 5 matches, with Rafael Navarro leading with 10 goals this season, indicating offensive threat despite predicted loss.
Key absences weaken Rapids' defense and goalkeeping
Goalkeeper Zack Steffen and midfielder Ali Fadal are confirmed out, weakening Rapids' defensive stability against Toronto's attack.
Toronto FC's home advantage and scoring consistency
Toronto FC scores over 2 goals per home game on average, with a positive recent home scoring streak, favoring a strong home win.
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season's sixth round. Toronto FC have demonstrated solid scoring ability at home, while Colorado Rapids sit mid-table and have shown resilience in attack. Both teams will be eager to gain momentum as the season progresses.
Key insights
Joshua Sargent
Toronto FC
Sargent averages 0.5 goals per game at home in the last 10 matches, making him a potent scoring threat for Toronto FC.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 21 apps, 0.33 avg goals/game
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
Sallói leads Toronto FC with 6 assists this season and is vital for chance creation and set-piece delivery.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 28 apps, 0.21 avg assists/game
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Navarro is the Rapids' top scorer with 10 goals this season, maintaining strong recent form and leading their attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 22 apps, 0.45 avg goals/game
Paxten Aaronson
Colorado Rapids
Aaronson contributes significantly with 8 assists and 7 goals, showing excellent creative output and recent form.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists and 7 goals in 28 apps
Analysis
Toronto FC's offensive creativity, led by Dániel Sallói and Joshua Sargent, is expected to exploit gaps in Colorado Rapids' defence, especially given the absences weakening the Rapids' backline. Sargent's strong home scoring form and Sallói's playmaking skills provide a tactical edge. Meanwhile, Colorado's Rafael Navarro remains a key threat, but defensive frailties and missing personnel may limit their effectiveness.
Key facts
- 1.Toronto FC have scored over 2 goals per home game on average this season.
- 2.Colorado Rapids are currently 8th in their league with 37 points from 28 games.
- 3.Joshua Sargent leads Toronto FC with 7 goals this season, averaging 0.5 goals per home game in recent matches.
- 4.Dániel Sallói is a key creative force for Toronto FC with 6 assists this season.
- 5.Rafael Navarro is Colorado Rapids' top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 6.Colorado Rapids have scored in their last 5 matches, showing consistent offensive form.
- 7.Key absences in Colorado Rapids' defence and goalkeeping weaken their defensive stability.
Prediction
We predict a confident home win for Toronto FC with a 4-1 scoreline. The team is likely to establish a 2-0 lead by halftime, reflecting their attacking dominance and home advantage. Colorado Rapids may find the net once but will struggle to contain Toronto's offensive pressure.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toronto FC
Away — Colorado Rapids
The verdict
In summary, Toronto FC's blend of attacking talent and home form should see them comfortably overcome Colorado Rapids. Expect an early lead and sustained pressure resulting in a convincing 4-1 victory to keep their season on an upward trajectory.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:40 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Card upgrade
Travis
Red Card
Sealy
Zimmerman
Yellow Card
Card upgrade
Edwards
Red Card
Aaronson
Kerr
Rosenberry
Zimmerman
Navarro
Yellow Card
Laryea
Assist: Sargent
Monlouis
Yellow Card
Atencio
Yellow Card
Navarro
Yellow Card
Navarro
Red Card
Atencio
Steffen (OG)
Unknown
Navarro
Aaronson
Sargent
Assist: Coello
Laryea
Yellow Card
Cobb
Yellow Card
Ojediran
Yellow Card
Sargent
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
Match Statistics
Toronto FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1L. GavranG
- 8J. CifuentesM
- 9J. SargentF
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 20D. SallóiM
- 21J. OsorioM
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 25W. ZimmermanD
- 29D. KerrM
- 44R. EdwardsD
Substitutes
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 11D. EtienneF
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 19K. FranklinD
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 78Malik HenryM
- 99J. VilsaintF
Colorado Rapids
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Z. SteffenG
- 6R. HoldingD
- 7D. SealyM
- 8H. OjediranM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 12J. AtencioM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 99J. TravisD
Substitutes
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 11A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 19I. MurphyD
- 24N. CobbD
- 26M. DiopF
- 27K. Stewart-BaynesF
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 77D. YapiF
Toronto FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Sargent | F | 89 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Richie Laryea | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/4 |
| Jonathan Osorio(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alonso Coello | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Dániel Sallói | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Deandre Kerr | M | 52 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| José Cifuentes | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Benjamin Kuscevic | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Walker Zimmerman | D | 56 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Raheem Edwards | D | 49 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kobe Franklin | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jules-Anthony Vilsaint | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Yarbrough | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Markus Cimermancic | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne Junior | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | D | 38 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | F | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Navarro | F | 84 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Paxten Aaronson | M | 84 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Herrington | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rob Holding | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hamzat Ojediran | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Wayne Frederick | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/5 |
| Dante Sealy | M | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Navarro | D | 74 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Josh Atencio | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Zack Steffen(C) | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Travis | D | 35 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Billo Diop | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Harris | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kimani Stewart-Baynes | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keegan Rosenberry | D | 54 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Ian Murphy | D | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Manyoma | M | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Cobb | D | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Darren Yapi | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toronto FC vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toronto FC to win against Colorado Rapids.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toronto FC vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toronto FC 4–1 Colorado Rapids.
- What were the win probabilities for Toronto FC vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's model gave Toronto FC a 68% chance of winning, Colorado Rapids a 16% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 68% confidence — a high-confidence call.