Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
Toronto FC snatch late win over CF Montreal
Two stoppage-time goals turn the tide in a tight MLS clash.
CF Montreal took the lead shortly after the break through D. Ríos, but Toronto FC staged a dramatic turnaround with goals from L. Morgan and D. Mihailović deep into stoppage time. The 2-1 victory was narrower than Fipster's confident prediction of a 4-1 home win, but the call for a Toronto triumph was spot on.
Outcome probability
Toronto FC and CF Montreal face off in the 28th round of the 2026 MLS regular season. With both teams eager to make their mark, this clash promises goals and excitement, especially given their history of high-scoring encounters.
Match factors
Home team's attacking trio in strong recent form
Sargent, Sallói, and Aristizábal have combined for multiple goals recently, boosting scoring potential
Prince-Osei Owusu leads away team scoring and assists
Owusu's 13 goals and 6 assists make him the main threat for Montreal despite overall team struggles
Key attacker Mihailović out for Toronto FC
Mihailović's absence reduces creative options and assist potential for Toronto FC
Toronto FC strong home scoring streak but defensive frailty
Toronto FC has scored in all last 5 home games but conceded in all, indicating open play
Toronto FC's Sallói key in both scoring and assisting
Sallói's dual threat with 7 goals and 5 assists this season makes him pivotal in attack
The context
The rivalry between Toronto FC and CF Montreal is well balanced, with 20 meetings resulting in 8 wins for Toronto, 9 for Montreal, and 3 draws. Their matches typically produce plenty of goals, averaging 3.4 per game, setting the stage for an entertaining contest.
Key insights
Joshua Sargent
Toronto FC
High goal conversion rate at home with 1.5 goals per game in last 2 home matches, making him a key scoring threat.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 17 appearances, 0.35 goals/game
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
A dual threat with 7 goals and 5 assists this season, pivotal in both scoring and creating chances.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals and 5 assists in 24 appearances
Prince-Osei Owusu
CF Montreal
Leading scorer and assister for Montreal, with 13 goals and 6 assists, posing the main attacking threat despite team struggles.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals and 6 assists in 23 appearances
Analysis
Toronto FC's attacking trio, led by Joshua Sargent and Dániel Sallói, have been in fine form recently, combining for multiple goals and assists. Sargent boasts a strong home scoring record with 6 goals in 17 appearances, while Sallói contributes both goals and creativity with 7 goals and 5 assists this season. Meanwhile, CF Montreal rely heavily on Prince-Osei Owusu, their top scorer and assister, but overall their attacking options are less potent. Toronto's defensive frailty at home might invite some pressure, but their firepower is expected to overwhelm Montreal.
Key facts
- 1.Toronto FC have won 8 of 20 meetings against CF Montreal, who have won 9, with 3 draws.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 3.4 goals per game, indicating open, attacking play.
- 3.Joshua Sargent has scored 6 goals in 17 appearances for Toronto FC this season.
- 4.Dániel Sallói has contributed 7 goals and 5 assists, making him a key creative force.
- 5.Prince-Osei Owusu leads CF Montreal with 13 goals and 6 assists this season.
- 6.Toronto FC have scored in all of their last 5 home games but have also conceded in each, suggesting open matches.
Prediction
We anticipate a dominant performance from Toronto FC, culminating in a 4-1 victory. The home side's attacking prowess and recent scoring streak should prove decisive against a Montreal side that struggles to contain opponents away from home.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toronto FC
Away — CF Montreal
The verdict
In summary, Toronto FC's blend of goal-scoring talent and home advantage is likely to secure them a comfortable win. CF Montreal will need to tighten up defensively to avoid a heavy defeat in this encounter.
Prediction generated 27 Sep 2026, 02:36 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gavran
Ríos
Vera
Yellow Card
Osorio
Sánchez
Loturi
Coello
Craig
Yellow Card
Craig
Ríos
Petrasso
Yellow Card
Morgan
Assist: Dorsch
Mihailović
Assist: Corbeanu
Laryea
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Toronto FC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1L. GavranG
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 6N. DorschM
- 7T. CorbeanuF
- 9J. SargentF
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 15N. GomisD
- 20D. SallóiF
- 21J. OsorioM
- 22R. LaryeaD
Substitutes
- 10D. MihailovićM
- 11D. EtienneF
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 27A. PiedrahitaF
- 38J. GilmanD
- 90L. MorganF
- 96R. ChukwuD
CF Montreal
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1S. BrezaG
- 2J. NealD
- 4B. VeraD
- 5B. CraigD
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 9P. OwusuF
- 10A. SánchezM
- 13L. PetrassoM
- 14D. RíosM
- 22V. LoturiM
- 27D. BugajM
Substitutes
- 6S. PietteM
- 7D. PereiraM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 18H. SynchukM
- 21F. HerbersF
- 23N. StreitM
- 24E. MoralesD
- 28V. RadojevićD
- 41S. KeitaG
Toronto FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Morgan | F | 8 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Mihailović | M | 29 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| W. Yarbrough | G | 67 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Dorsch | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| T. Corbeanu | F | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| B. Kuscevic | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| N. Gomis | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Alonso Coello | M | 82 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Sargent | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| Matheus Pereira | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Laryea | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Sallói | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| J. Osorio | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Gavran | G | 23 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gilman | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Monlouis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Chukwu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Etienne | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Piedrahita | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
CF Montreal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Ríos | M | 86 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Sánchez | M | 72 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | — |
| F. Herbers | F | 18 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| E. Morales | D | 4 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Neal | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Owusu | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 2/3 |
| D. Bugaj | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| V. Loturi | M | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| B. Vera | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Longstaff | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| W. Carmona | M | 4 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Craig | D | 86 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Breza | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Petrasso | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Piette | M | 18 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Keita | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Pereira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Radojević | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Synchuk | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Streit | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toronto FC to win against CF Montreal.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toronto FC 4–1 CF Montreal.
- What were the win probabilities for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster's model gave Toronto FC a 95% chance of winning, CF Montreal a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.