Toronto FC vs Austin
Match recap
Toronto FC and Austin drew 3–3 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Sallói, Laryea, and Franklin scored for Toronto FC; Bell, Torres, and Ramirez replied for Austin. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.05 for Toronto FC versus 1.49 for Austin.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Toronto FC win
Actual
3–3
Outcome probability
Toronto FC and Austin face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season match. Both teams have shown attacking prowess, but Toronto's home form and key players could tip the scales in their favour.
Match factors
Toronto's attacking trio in form
Sargent and Sallói lead Toronto's scoring and assist charts, providing strong attacking threat at home
Christian Ramirez's recent scoring surge
Ramirez has scored 4 goals in last 5 matches, posing a key threat for Austin
Toronto's strong home scoring record
Toronto averages 2.07 goals per home game, above league average, boosting their win chances
Austin's mixed recent form
Austin has scored in 4 of last 5 games but also conceded heavily, indicating defensive vulnerability
No confirmed absences for key scorers
Both teams have no confirmed outs among top scorers or assisters, ensuring full attacking options
The context
This fixture is part of the MLS regular season, round 8. Toronto FC and Austin have met three times before, each side winning once with one draw, making this a well-matched contest. Austin currently sit 13th in their league, reflecting a mixed season so far.
Key insights
Joshua Sargent
Toronto FC
Top scorer for Toronto FC with 7 goals, showing strong home form with 3 goals in last 10 home games.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 21 appearances, 0.33 goals/game
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
Leading assister and joint top scorer, providing key creativity with 6 assists and 7 goals this season.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 28 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Christian Ramirez
Austin
In excellent recent form, scoring 4 goals in last 5 games, posing a significant threat to Toronto's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 24 appearances, 0.38 goals/game
Analysis
Toronto FC boasts a strong home scoring record, averaging just over two goals per game at home, which bodes well for their chances. Their attacking duo, Joshua Sargent and Dániel Sallói, lead the team in goals and assists respectively, providing a potent threat. Austin's Christian Ramirez has been in fine form, netting four goals in his last five games, but Austin's defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by Toronto's home advantage.
Key facts
- 1.Toronto FC and Austin have met 3 times: 1 win each and 1 draw.
- 2.Austin are 13th in their league with 31 points from 28 games.
- 3.Toronto FC averages 2.07 goals per home game this season.
- 4.Joshua Sargent is Toronto's top scorer with 7 goals this season.
- 5.Dániel Sallói leads Toronto FC in assists with 6 this season.
- 6.Christian Ramirez has scored 4 goals in his last 5 matches for Austin.
- 7.No confirmed absences among key scorers for either team.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Toronto FC with a 2-1 scoreline. While the match could be closely contested, Toronto's attacking strengths and home scoring record give them the edge to secure the victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toronto FC
Away — Austin
The verdict
Expect an engaging match with goals from both sides, but ultimately Toronto FC's home advantage and key players should see them through to a narrow win. Fans can look forward to a competitive encounter with plenty of attacking intent.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Red card cancelled
Dubersarsky
Yellow Card
Bell
Edwards
Yellow Card
Biro
Yellow Card
Sallói
Cifuentes
Yellow Card
Nelson
Etienne
Edwards
Laryea
Dubersarsky
Desler
Torres
Stefanovic
Yellow Card
Ramirez
Franklin
Coello
Yellow Card
Rosales
Uzuni
Cifuentes
Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Toronto FC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1L. GavranG
- 8J. CifuentesM
- 9J. SargentF
- 11D. EtienneF
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 14Alonso CoelloD
- 19K. FranklinM
- 20D. SallóiF
- 21J. OsorioM
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 44R. EdwardsD
Substitutes
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 29D. KerrF
- 38J. GilmanD
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 75R. FisherD
- 76L. StefanovicD
- 78Malik HenryM
- 99J. VilsaintF
Austin
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 7J. NelsonM
- 10M. UzuniF
- 11F. TorresF
- 15J. BellD
- 17J. GallagherM
- 20N. DubersarskyM
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
Substitutes
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 12D. LasG
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 16R. TaylorF
- 19C. FodreyM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 23Ž. KolmaničD
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 38Ervin TorresM
Toronto FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dániel Sallói | F | 90 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Richie Laryea | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Josh Sargent | F | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2/2 |
| José Cifuentes | M | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Derrick Etienne Junior | F | 62 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Alonso Coello | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Jonathan Osorio(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kobe Franklin | M | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Raheem Edwards | D | 62 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jackson Gilman | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Markus Cimermancic | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reid Fisher | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Yarbrough | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deandre Kerr | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jules-Anthony Vilsaint | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lazar Stefanovic | D | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Austin
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Stuver(C) | G | 90 | 8.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Torres | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Oleksandr Svatok | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Bell | D | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mikkel Desler | D | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Joseph Rosales | M | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Myrto Uzuni | F | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/4 |
| Nicolas Dubersarsky | M | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jayden Nelson | M | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Jon Gallagher | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Guilherme Biro | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Damian Las | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Žan Kolmanič | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calvin Fodrey | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ervin Torres | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateja Đorđević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Taylor | F | 33 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Christian Ramirez | F | 19 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Besard Sabović | M | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ilie Sanchez | M | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toronto FC vs Austin?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toronto FC to win against Austin.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toronto FC vs Austin?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toronto FC 2–1 Austin.
- What were the win probabilities for Toronto FC vs Austin?
- Fipster's model gave Toronto FC a 35% chance of winning, Austin a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.