Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC
Match recap
Atlanta United FC beat Toronto FC 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Aristizábal Chavarriaga scored for Toronto FC; Miranchuk and Muyumba replied for Atlanta United FC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.64 for Toronto FC versus 0.61 for Atlanta United FC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Toronto FC win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
Toronto FC and Atlanta United FC face off in what promises to be a competitive MLS regular season encounter. Both sides have shown attacking prowess, setting the stage for an engaging match.
Match factors
Toronto FC's strong home scoring form
Toronto FC has scored in all last 5 home games, averaging over 2 goals per game at home, boosting their attacking confidence
Josh Sargent's scoring consistency
Sargent leads Toronto FC with 7 goals this season and has a strong home scoring rate, making him a key scoring threat
Dániel Sallói's dual threat
Sallói contributes both goals (7) and assists (6) this season, showing consistent form and creativity for Toronto FC
Aleksey Miranchuk's creative influence for Atlanta
Miranchuk leads Atlanta with 6 goals and 6 assists, key to their attacking play and a threat to Toronto's defense
Key defenders missing for both teams
Toronto FC's Zimmerman and Palacio are out, Atlanta's Chica and Reilly are out, impacting defensive stability for both sides
The context
Historically, these two teams are well matched with 6 wins apiece and 8 draws in 20 meetings. Their encounters tend to be lively affairs, averaging nearly 3 goals per game, reflecting a fixture where both sides find the net regularly.
Key insights
Josh Sargent
Toronto FC
Top scorer for Toronto FC with 7 goals, showing strong home scoring form and being a key focal point in attack.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 21 appearances, 3 goals in last 10 home games
Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
Contributes both goals and assists consistently, with 7 goals and 6 assists this season, boosting Toronto's attacking creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals and 6 assists in 28 appearances
Aleksey Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
Leads Atlanta with 6 goals and 6 assists, playing a crucial role in their attacking play and posing a significant threat to Toronto's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals and 6 assists in 26 appearances
Analysis
Toronto FC boasts strong home scoring form, having found the net in all of their last five home games with an average of over two goals per match. Key players like Josh Sargent and Dániel Sallói have been instrumental, combining goal-scoring and creative contributions. Atlanta United counters with Aleksey Miranchuk, who leads their attack with 6 goals and 6 assists this season, making him a significant threat. Defensive absences on both sides could open up the game further, suggesting a closely fought contest.
Key facts
- 1.Toronto FC and Atlanta United FC have each won 6 of their 20 meetings, with 8 draws.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals, indicating an open and attacking fixture.
- 3.Toronto FC has scored in all of their last 5 home games, averaging over 2 goals per game at home.
- 4.Josh Sargent leads Toronto FC with 7 goals this season, showing strong home scoring form.
- 5.Dániel Sallói contributes both goals (7) and assists (6) this season, highlighting his creative influence.
- 6.Aleksey Miranchuk is Atlanta United's top scorer with 6 goals and 6 assists this season.
- 7.Key defenders are missing for both teams, potentially affecting defensive solidity.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a Toronto FC win by 2-1. A halftime score of 1-1 is expected, indicating a balanced first half before Toronto FC pulls ahead in the second. This outcome aligns with the teams' history of competitive matches and Toronto's strong home form.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Toronto FC
Away — Atlanta United FC
The verdict
Expect a spirited match with both teams eager to claim victory. Toronto FC's home advantage and attacking consistency should see them edge out Atlanta United in a narrow 2-1 win, continuing their positive run on home soil.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:54 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kuscevic
Goal cancelled
Togashi
Cifuentes
Gregersen
Yellow Card
Sanchez
Yellow Card
Miranchuk
Brennan
Muyumba
Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Assist: Franklin
Aristizábal Chavarriaga
Coello
Sargent
Sanchez
Miranchuk
Match Statistics
Toronto FC
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1L. GavranG
- 8J. CifuentesM
- 9J. SargentF
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 14Alonso CoelloM
- 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaM
- 19K. FranklinD
- 20D. SallóiM
- 21J. OsorioM
- 44R. EdwardsD
Substitutes
- 11D. EtienneF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 38J. GilmanD
- 56A. BossenberryM
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 75R. FisherD
- 76L. StefanovicD
- 78Malik HenryM
- 99J. VilsaintF
Atlanta United FC
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1L. HoyosG
- 3E. BáezD
- 5S. GregersenD
- 6Juan BerrocalD
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 30C. TogashiF
- 35A. FortuneM
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 48C. SanchezM
- 59A. MiranchukM
Substitutes
- 2R. HernándezD
- 4E. MihajD
- 9E. Latte LathF
- 11S. LobzhanidzeF
- 18Pedro AmadorD
- 22F. PicaultF
- 28William ReillyM
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 88M. GalarzaM
Toronto FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Kuscevic | D | 20 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Osorio(C) | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Emilio Aristizábal | M | 72 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| José Cifuentes | M | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Alonso Coello | M | 72 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Josh Sargent | F | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kobe Franklin | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dániel Sallói | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raheem Edwards | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Reid Fisher | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Markus Cimermancic | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Yarbrough | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Gilman | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne Junior | F | 60 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Malik Henry | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Lazar Stefanovic | D | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antone Bossenberry | M | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jules-Anthony Vilsaint | F | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atlanta United FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Muyumba | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Aleksey Miranchuk(C) | M | 77 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Matthew Edwards | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ajani Fortune | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Stian Gregersen | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Hoyos | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cayman Togashi | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Elías Báez | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Berrocal | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luke Brennan | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cooper Sanchez | M | 77 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jayden Hibbert | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Amador | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enea Mihaj | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saba Lobzhanidze | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald Hernández | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Reilly | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Matías Galarza | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Fafà Picault | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Emmanuel Latte Lath | F | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toronto FC to win against Atlanta United FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Toronto FC 2–1 Atlanta United FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC?
- Fipster's model gave Toronto FC a 59% chance of winning, Atlanta United FC a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 59% confidence — a medium-confidence call.