Torino vs Monza
Torino edge Monza in five-goal thriller
A late own goal seals a narrow win for Torino in Serie A action.
Torino secured a 3-2 victory over Monza in a match full of twists, with K. Fitz-Jim, R. Belghali, and N. Vlašić all finding the net for the hosts. Monza fought back through Gustavo Varela but were ultimately undone by an own goal from N. Patterson deep into stoppage time. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction for a home win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved more dramatic than expected.
Outcome probability
Torino and Monza face off in what promises to be a closely fought Serie A encounter. Both sides have had mixed starts to the season, sitting just outside the top half of the table with identical points tallies but differing game counts. Expect a competitive match with chances at both ends.
Match factors
Torino missing key attacker P. Pellegri
Pellegri is confirmed out with jumper's knee, removing a primary scoring option and weakening Torino's attack.
Monza's Gustavo Varela in red-hot scoring form
Varela has 4 goals in last 5 games, making him a significant threat against Torino's defense.
Monza's defensive strength led by Kouadio and Carboni
Kouadio's high tackle and interception rates and Carboni's passing stability provide Monza a defensive edge.
Torino's midfield creativity from Mandragora and Belghali
Mandragora and Belghali show good passing and assist potential, key for Torino's attacking transitions.
The context
Torino currently sit 14th with 7 points from 6 games, while Monza are 13th with 7 points from 7 games. Both teams have shown flashes of promise but have yet to find consistent form. Torino will be without key attacker Pellegri due to injury, which could impact their attacking options. Monza's Gustavo Varela, however, is in red-hot form with 4 goals in his last 5 games, making him a significant threat.
Key insights
Gustavo Varela
Monza
Varela is in red-hot scoring form with 4 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat against Torino's defence.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 5 games, 85.6 avg mins
- P
Pellegri
Torino
Pellegri is out with a jumper's knee injury, removing a primary scoring option and weakening Torino's attack.
Serie A 26/270 goals this season due to injury
Samuele Birindelli
Monza
Birindelli leads Monza with 2 assists and is a creative presence with set-piece duties.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 6 games, 88.8 avg mins
- E
Eddy Kouadio
Monza
Kouadio leads Monza in tackles and interceptions, providing a strong defensive presence.
Serie A 26/272.67 tackles per game, 19 interceptions
Analysis
The first half is expected to be balanced, with a predicted 1-1 scoreline at halftime reflecting the evenly matched nature of the teams. Monza's defensive strength, led by Kouadio and Carboni, will be tested by Torino's creative midfield duo Mandragora and Belghali. Despite Monza's attacking threat through Varela, Torino's home advantage and midfield creativity should see them edge ahead in the second half. The predicted 2-1 final scoreline aligns with the statistical probabilities, where a home win is the most likely outcome.
Key facts
- 1.Torino are 14th with 7 points from 6 games (W2 D1 L3).
- 2.Monza are 13th with 7 points from 7 games (W2 D1 L4).
- 3.Torino's Pellegri is out with a jumper's knee injury.
- 4.Monza's Gustavo Varela has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games.
- 5.Predicted halftime score is 1-1, indicating a balanced first half.
- 6.Torino's Mandragora and Belghali provide key midfield creativity.
- 7.Monza's defensive strength is led by Kouadio and Carboni.
- 8.Prediction expects around 4 total cards in the match.
Prediction
We anticipate a closely contested match with both teams scoring in the first half. Torino will then find a decisive goal in the second half to secure a 2-1 victory. Expect a competitive game with around four cards shown, reflecting the intensity and stakes involved.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Torino
No standout top scorers flagged for Torino
Away — Monza
The verdict
In summary, this fixture looks finely balanced early on but with Torino's home edge and creative spark, they should just about claim the three points. Monza will provide stern resistance, especially through Varela, but ultimately the hosts are favoured to prevail in a tight encounter.
Prediction generated 19 Oct 2026, 20:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ismajli
Yellow Card
Fitz-Jim
Assist: Simeone
Gustavo Varela
Mandragora
Belghali
Assist: Gineitis
Ondoa
Lucchesi
Cacciamani
Simeone
Fitz-Jim
Vlašić
Mota
Robinson
Belghali
Carboni
Patterson (OG)
Match Statistics
Torino
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 8R. MandragoraM
- 10N. VlašićM
- 15P. ComuzzoD
- 18G. SimeoneF
- 19C. AdamsM
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 28K. Fitz-JimM
- 44A. IsmajliD
- 45R. BelghaliM
- 77A. CacciamaniM
Substitutes
- 2N. PattersonD
- 3C. BiraghiD
- 5E. CömertD
- 7Z. AboukhlalF
- 9P. PellegriF
- 11G. OristanioM
- 17S. KulenovićF
- 21Daniel BragançaM
- 22C. CasadeiM
- 26D. MascardiG
- 66G. GineitisM
- 76L. SivieroG
- 91D. ZapataF
Monza
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 8M. OndoaM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 44A. CarboniD
- 46Jay RobinsonM
- 47Dany MotaM
Substitutes
- 6V. AntovD
- 10P. CutroneF
- 11O. ForsonF
- 16C. NgongeF
- 20D. ThiamG
- 21L. ColomboM
- 22E. ZeballosF
- 24A. BakouneD
- 26P. CiurriaF
- 27I. TouréM
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 43A. StrajnarG
- 60E. KouadioD
- 80M. MoutM
- 90M. FolorunshoM
Torino
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Vlašić | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| R. Belghali | M | 84 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| K. Fitz-Jim | M | 71 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| G. Simeone | F | 71 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 4/5 |
| R. Mandragora | M | 51 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ismajli | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Z. Aboukhlal | F | 6 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| P. Comuzzo | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Patterson | D | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Gineitis | M | 39 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Saúl Coco | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Adams | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Kulenović | F | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Daniel Bragança | M | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Cacciamani | M | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Lucas Perri | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Zapata | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Biraghi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Cömert | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Oristanio | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Casadei | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mascardi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Siviero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Pellegri | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Monza
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| C. Ngonge | F | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Lucchesi | D | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Akinsanmiro | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| A. Carboni | D | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Mangas | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| E. Kouadio | D | 27 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Goglichidze | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dany Mota | M | 79 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| P. Cutrone | F | 11 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mout | M | 5 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jay Robinson | M | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| M. Folorunsho | M | 27 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Törnqvist | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ondoa | M | 63 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Birindelli | M | 90 | 5.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Bakoune | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Antov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Colpani | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Thiam | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Ciurria | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Touré | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Zeballos | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Forson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Strajnar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Colombo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Torino vs Monza?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Torino to win against Monza.
- What score did Fipster predict for Torino vs Monza?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Torino 2–1 Monza.
- What were the win probabilities for Torino vs Monza?
- Fipster's model gave Torino a 45% chance of winning, Monza a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 45% confidence — a medium-confidence call.