Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden
Sweden snatch draw in Bosnia
Gyökeres and Alajbegović trade blows to share the spoils.
In a tightly contested UEFA Nations League clash, Sweden's V. Gyökeres put the visitors ahead after the break at 61 minutes, only for Bosnia & Herzegovina's Kerim-Sam Alajbegović to level the score at 80 minutes. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, leaving both sides to settle for a share of the points.
Outcome probability
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden face off in a League B encounter that promises a close contest. Both teams have shown solid form in this competition, setting the stage for a tactical and competitive match.
Match factors
Sweden's attacking duo in strong form
Isak and Gyökeres have scored in recent matches, providing Sweden with reliable goal threats
Bosnia's midfield creativity from Bajraktarevic
Bajraktarevic's 2 assists and high rating highlight his key role in creating chances
Bosnia's defender Muharemović contributes offensively
Defender scored in last match, adding unexpected goal threat from defense
Sweden's recent winning form boosts confidence
Sweden won last 2 matches scoring multiple goals, showing strong attacking momentum
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups possible
The context
In this League B round 3 fixture, Bosnia & Herzegovina have recorded one win and one draw from their two matches, scoring four goals and conceding two. Sweden, meanwhile, have won both their matches, netting five goals and conceding two. Both sides have demonstrated attacking intent and resilience, making this a compelling fixture.
Key insights
Alexander Isak
Sweden
Isak has scored in his only appearance this season, showing strong home scoring form that boosts Sweden's attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 90 mins played
Viktor Gyökeres
Sweden
Gyökeres has netted 2 goals in his last 2 matches, maintaining a high duel win rate and solid minutes on the pitch.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in 2 appearances, 76 avg mins
E. Bajraktarevic
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bajraktarevic's 2 assists and high rating underline his key role in creating chances and influencing the midfield.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 assists in 1 appearance, 63 mins played
T. Muharemović
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Muharemović scored in the recent away win, contributing offensively while maintaining strong defensive stats.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 90 mins played
Analysis
The match is expected to start cautiously, with a predicted 0-0 halftime score reflecting tight defensive setups. Bosnia & Herzegovina's midfield creativity, particularly from E. Bajraktarevic who has provided two assists recently, will be key in unlocking Sweden's defence. Sweden's attacking duo, Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, have been in good form, but Bosnia's defensive contributions, including a goal from defender T. Muharemović, add an extra dimension to their threat. Discipline is expected to be moderate, with around four cards predicted in total.
Key facts
- 1.Bosnia & Herzegovina have 1 win and 1 draw in 2 matches in this competition.
- 2.Sweden have won both their matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 2.
- 3.The most likely halftime score is 0-0, indicating a tight opening period.
- 4.The predicted fulltime score is 2-1 in favour of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- 5.Moderate discipline expected with around 4 total cards predicted.
- 6.E. Bajraktarevic has provided 2 assists recently, highlighting his creative influence.
- 7.Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres have been reliable goal threats for Sweden.
- 8.Defender T. Muharemović adds an unexpected offensive threat for Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Prediction
Despite the balanced probabilities for all outcomes, the prediction leans towards a home win for Bosnia & Herzegovina with a 2-1 scoreline. The first half is likely to be tight and go goalless, but Bosnia & Herzegovina are expected to edge ahead in the second half, capitalising on their midfield creativity and defensive solidity to secure the victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bosnia & Herzegovina
Away — Sweden
The verdict
This League B clash promises a competitive and closely fought match. Bosnia & Herzegovina's ability to combine midfield creativity with defensive contributions could just tip the scales in their favour against a confident Swedish side. Expect a tense first half followed by a decisive second-half performance from the hosts.
Prediction generated 28 Sep 2026, 20:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Goal cancelled
Starfelt
Gyökeres
Assist: Bernhardsson
Džeko
Bašić
Bernhardsson
Zeneli
Demirović
Alajbegović
Alajbegović
Katić
Nanasi
Match Statistics
Bosnia & Herzegovina
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4T. MuharemovićD
- 5S. KolašinacD
- 8A. GigovićM
- 10E. DemirovićF
- 11E. DžekoF
- 12S. HamzićG
- 13I. BašićM
- 15A. MemićD
- 18N. KatićD
- 19Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 20E. BajraktarevicM
Substitutes
- 1M. JurkasG
- 2N. MujakićD
- 3A. MalicD
- 6Z. SmajlovićD
- 7N. OmerovićF
- 9J. LukićF
- 14I. ŠunjićM
- 16Ermin MahmićM
- 17L. ĐurićM
- 21S. RadeljićD
- 22M. ZlomislićG
- 23H. TabakovićF
Sweden
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 14E. SkoglundD
- 15C. StarfeltD
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 19S. NanasiM
- 20H. LarssonM
- 21A. BernhardssonM
- 22B. ZeneliF
Substitutes
- 1M. EllborgG
- 2F. BeijmoD
- 4E. SmithM
- 7L. BergvallM
- 8D. SvenssonD
- 9P. AbrahamF
- 10H. BolinM
- 11W. SwedbergF
- 13K. SemaM
- 18S. DahlD
- 23N. TörnqvistG
Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerim-Sam Alajbegović | M | 87 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/4 |
| I. Bašić | M | 76 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Muharemović | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Katić | D | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| E. Demirović | F | 76 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Hamzić | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Lukić | F | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Tabaković | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Smajlović | D | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Džeko | F | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ermin Mahmić | M | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Šunjić | M | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gigović | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Kolašinac | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Memić | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bajraktarevic | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Malic | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Jurkas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Radeljić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Mujakić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Zlomislić | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Omerović | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Đurić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sweden
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Gyökeres | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Bernhardsson | M | 76 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| G. Gudmundsson | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| S. Nanasi | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| E. Smith | M | 59 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Skoglund | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| H. Larsson | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Karlström | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Starfelt | D | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| B. Zeneli | F | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| V. Johansson | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Swedberg | F | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bergvall | M | 14 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Sema | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Bolin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ellborg | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Abraham | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Svensson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Törnqvist | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Dahl | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Beijmo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bosnia & Herzegovina to win against Sweden.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–1 Sweden.
- What were the win probabilities for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden?
- Fipster's model gave Bosnia & Herzegovina a 36% chance of winning, Sweden a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 36% confidence — a low-confidence call.