Swansea vs Charlton
Match recap
Swansea beat Charlton 3–1 in their Championship fixture. Idah, Idah, and Walta scored for Swansea; Leaburn replied for Charlton. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.16 for Swansea versus 0.96 for Charlton. Swansea sit 11th in the Championship table while Charlton are 19th.
Analysis
As the season nears its close, Swansea welcome Charlton to Liberty Stadium in what promises to be a closely fought encounter. Both teams have shown resilience, but Swansea's home advantage and recent form suggest they will edge this one.
Swansea currently sit comfortably above Charlton in the league standings, boasting a superior goal difference and a strong record against the Addicks. Charlton, struggling for consistency, will find it tough to break down Swansea's defence on the road.
The match is expected to be cagey, with a goalless first half likely as both sides probe cautiously. Swansea's attacking fullbacks, particularly Josh Tymon, provide width and creativity, while striker Žan Vipotnik's excellent home scoring form makes him a key threat. Charlton's defensive vulnerabilities on the wings could be exploited, but their physical striker Lyndon Dykes may cause problems for Swansea's backline.
Prediction
We predict Swansea to clinch a narrow 1-0 victory, maintaining a clean sheet thanks to their defensive solidity and home advantage. The halftime score is expected to be 0-0, with the decisive goal coming in the second half. Expect a disciplined game with around four cards shown.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Swansea's attacking fullbacks create width
Tymon and Key provide quality crosses and assists, exploiting Charlton's defensive flanks.
Vipotnik's superior goal-scoring form
Vipotnik outperforms league average forwards in goals and ratings, key to Swansea's predicted goal.
Swansea's recent home scoring streak
Swansea scored in last 4 home games, showing strong offensive momentum at Liberty Stadium.
Charlton's defensive vulnerabilities on wings
Charlton concedes more goals from wide areas, likely to be exploited by Swansea's wingers and fullbacks.
No significant injuries reported
Both teams have full squads available, no key absences affecting tactical setups.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Swansea's historical dominance, superior goal difference, and home form make them favourites to take all three points. Charlton will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to counter Swansea's wing play if they are to avoid defeat.
- Swansea have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Charlton.
- Swansea's goal difference this season is +12, significantly better than Charlton's.
- Swansea rank 11th with 64 points; Charlton are 19th with 53 points.
- Swansea's expected goals (1.16) exceed Charlton's (0.96) this season.
- Žan Vipotnik has scored 7 goals this season with strong home form.
- Josh Tymon has provided 4 assists this season, contributing to Swansea's attacking width.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Swansea
Away — Charlton
No standout top scorers flagged for Charlton
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Widell
Stamenić
Burke
Fevrier
Coady
Cullen
Idah
Assist: Key
Knibbs
Key
Vipotnik
Dykes
Leaburn
Assist: Carey
Idah
Assist: Woodward
Walta
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | +52 | 95 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | +1 | 64 |
| 11 |  Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | -2 | 64 |
| 12 |  Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 62 |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | -15 | 55 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | -14 | 53 |
| 20 |  Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | -14 | 52 |
Match Statistics
Swansea
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. FisherG
- 2J. KeyD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 6M. StamenićM
- 7M. WidellM
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 14J. TymonD
- 15C. BurgessD
- 17Gonçalo FrancoM
- 20L. CullenM
- 35RonaldM
Substitutes
- 4J. FultonM
- 8M. YalcouyéM
- 18Gustavo GomesF
- 21L. WaltaM
- 25J. WardD
- 29P. FarmanG
- 33A. IdahF
- 42Daniel WattsD
- 44T. WoodwardM
Charlton
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 3M. GillespheyD
- 5L. JonesD
- 6C. CoventryM
- 15C. CoadyM
- 19L. ChambersM
- 32R. BurkeD
- 41H. KnibbsF
- 44H. ClarkeM
- 77J. FevrierF
- 99L. DykesF
Substitutes
- 2K. RamsayD
- 8L. BerryM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 14S. CareyM
- 23C. KelmanF
- 25W. MannionG
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
- 36Keenan GoughM
- 37I. FullahM
Swansea
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Key | D | 78 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Cameron Burgess | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marko Stamenić | M | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Melker Widell | M | 36 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liam Cullen | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ben Cabango(C) | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Franco | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Josh Tymon | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Žan Vipotnik | F | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Andrew Fisher | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Malick Yalcouyé | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Farman | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Watts | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Nunes | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Idah | F | 25 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Leo Walta | M | 54 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 4 | — |
| Jay Fulton | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Thomas Woodward | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Joel Ward | D | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Charlton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Jones | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Thomas Kaminski | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luke Chambers | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Conor Coady(C) | M | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reece Burke | D | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conor Coventry | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lyndon Dykes | F | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Harry Clarke | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jayden Fevrier | F | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Macauley Gillesphey | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Harvey Knibbs | F | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ibrahim Fullah | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keenan Gough | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kayne Ramsay | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Mannion | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miles Leaburn | F | 30 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Luke Berry | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Charlie Kelman | F | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sonny Carey | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Joe Rankin-Costello | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |