Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar
Sunderland edges Alkmaar with penalty strike
A solitary spot-kick secures a narrow Europa League victory for the Black Cats.
Sunderland claimed a tight 1-0 win over AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League, thanks to E. Le Fée's penalty in the 66th minute. The match was a cagey affair with the decisive moment coming after the break. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
Sunderland face off against AZ Alkmaar in a group stage match that promises to be a tight affair. Both teams come into this fixture without any confirmed injuries, setting the stage for a full-strength battle.
Match factors
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar have no confirmed absences, ensuring full squad availability.
Lack of top scorers and assisters data limits player impact predictions
Neither team has listed top scorers or assisters, making individual impact predictions uncertain.
Insufficient recent form data for both teams
No recent fixtures or form data available for Sunderland or AZ Alkmaar to assess momentum.
The context
This group stage encounter sees Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar looking to establish early momentum. Neither side has recent form data available, making this a fresh canvas for both teams to stamp their authority in the competition.
Key facts
- 1.Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar have no confirmed injuries, ensuring full squads.
- 2.The most probable full-time scoreline is Sunderland 2, AZ Alkmaar 1.
- 3.Draw scoreline 1-1 has the highest individual probability but is less likely overall than a Sunderland win.
- 4.Aggregate probabilities favour Sunderland with a 0.5 chance of winning.
- 5.Total cards predicted to be around 4 in this match.
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a Sunderland victory with a 2-1 scoreline, supported by aggregate probabilities favouring the home side. While the draw scoreline of 1-1 is the most probable individual result, the overall likelihood of Sunderland winning edges it out. Both teams have full squads available, but the lack of standout individual statistics makes this a contest likely decided by collective effort and home advantage.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sunderland
Away — AZ Alkmaar
Prediction
Expect Sunderland to clinch a 2-1 win in this group stage match. The home side's slight edge in probabilities and the absence of injury concerns suggest they will manage to outscore AZ Alkmaar in a competitive game.
The verdict
In summary, Sunderland's home advantage and full squad availability give them the upper hand in this group stage fixture. While AZ Alkmaar will certainly pose a challenge, the prediction favours a narrow Sunderland victory to keep their campaign on track.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Hume
Yellow Card
Alderete
Yellow Card
Oufkir
Yellow Card
Oufkir
Alderete
Smit
Patati
Yellow Card
Le Fée
Penalty
Fofana
Isidor
Hume
Mukiele
Yellow Card
Clasie
Schouten
Meerdink
Danso
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 8 |  Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 29 |  Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 |  Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Sunderland
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4K. DansoD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 17ReinildoD
- 18W. IsidorF
- 20N. MukieleD
- 22R. RoefsG
- 27N. SadikiM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 32T. HumeM
- 34G. XhakaM
- 39M. FofanaM
Substitutes
- 5D. BallardD
- 6D. MethalieD
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 10N. AnguloF
- 11C. RiggM
- 12T. MeunierD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 21S. MooreG
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 48Jenson JonesD
- 57T. Tuterov
- 77T. ProctorM
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 8J. ClasieM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 10K. SmitM
- 11R. DaalM
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 24A. OufkirM
- 28J. De BusserG
Substitutes
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 7Weslley PatatiF
- 14C. StengsM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 18B. KovacsF
- 19J. HornkampF
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 29W. HoedtD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 34M. de WitD
Sunderland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Le Fée | M | 90 | 8.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4/4 |
| Robin Roefs | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reinildo Mandava | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Granit Xhaka(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Noah Sadiki | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Wilson Isidor | F | 67 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Omar Alderete | D | 52 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nordi Mukiele | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | — |
| Kevin Danso | D | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Trai Hume | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Malick Fofana | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jenson Jones | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jules Ahoka | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luke O'Nien | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simon Moore | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tom Proctor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dayann Methalie | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Timur Tuterov | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Ballard | D | 38 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brian Brobbey | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Chris Rigg | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Meunier | D | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nilson Angulo | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Dijkstra | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Ro-Zangelo Daal | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Lewis Schouten | D | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Wouter Goes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mexx Meerdink | F | 83 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Peer Koopmeiners | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordy Clasie(C) | M | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jari De Busser | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Chávez | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kees Smit | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Ayoub Oufkir | M | 45 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bendegúz Kovács | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mees De Wit | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiya Maikuma | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rion Ichihara | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Hoedt | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dave Kwakman | M | 14 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Calvin Stengs | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valdemar Byskov | M | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jizz Hornkamp | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Weslley Patati | F | 45 | 5.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sunderland to win against AZ Alkmaar.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sunderland 2–1 AZ Alkmaar.
- What were the win probabilities for Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster's model gave Sunderland a 61% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 61% confidence — a medium-confidence call.