Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe nicks it with Talisca penalty
A solitary spot-kick seals a narrow win away at Sturm Graz.
Fenerbahçe edged out Sturm Graz 1-0 in the UEFA Champions League thanks to a penalty from Talisca in the 66th minute. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring a home win, the visitors managed to defy expectations and take all three points with a slender margin.
- First leg:
- Fenerbahçe 2 0 Sturm Graz
- Aggregate:
- Fenerbahçe 3 0 Sturm Graz
- Advances:
- Fenerbahçe
Outcome probability
The 3rd qualifying round fixture between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe promises a closely fought contest. Both sides have shown solid form in this competition so far, setting the stage for a tactical battle where a single goal could decide the outcome.
Match factors
Sturm Graz's defenders are unusually goal-productive
Multiple defenders have scored this season, adding unexpected attacking threat from defense
Talisca's scoring form gives Fenerbahçe a key attacking edge
Talisca has 2 goals in 2 games, maintaining a 1.0 goals/game rate this season
Sturm Graz strong home form with multiple goal contributors
Recent home win 4-0 with goals from defenders and midfielders shows attacking depth
No confirmed injuries for either team, full squads expected
Both teams have no confirmed outs, maximizing tactical options and player availability
The context
Sturm Graz have played three matches in this competition, winning two and losing one, scoring six goals and conceding two. Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in three games here, with two wins and a draw, netting four and conceding just once. Historically, Fenerbahçe have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning twice to Sturm Graz's none, with one draw. However, those matches have averaged 2.3 goals, suggesting a tight affair is likely.
Key insights

J. Heil
Sturm Graz
Scoring defender with strong defensive stats and a high match rating, adding unexpected attacking threat from the back.
UEFA Champions League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances, 0.5 avg goals/game; 6 tackles in last home game; match rating 9.3

Talisca
Fenerbahçe
Top scorer for Fenerbahçe with consistent scoring form, providing a key attacking edge.
UEFA Champions League 26/272 goals in 2 appearances, 1.0 avg goals/game

J. Gorenc Stankovič
Sturm Graz
Midfield captain contributing goals and assists, pivotal in both attack and defence.
UEFA Champions League 26/271 goal and 1 assist in 2 appearances, 0.5 avg goals and assists/game
Analysis
Sturm Graz's recent home performances have been impressive, with multiple goal contributors including defenders, which adds an unexpected attacking threat. Their defender J. Heil has been particularly notable, scoring and defending robustly. Fenerbahçe's key attacker Talisca remains a potent threat with two goals in two games, but the visitors may find it tough to break down a disciplined Sturm Graz defence. The predicted 1-0 halftime and fulltime scoreline reflects the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring match where home advantage and defensive solidity could be decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Sturm Graz have won 2 of 3 matches in this competition, scoring 6 goals and conceding 2.
- 2.Fenerbahçe remain unbeaten in 3 matches here with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 4 and conceding 1.
- 3.In 3 head-to-head meetings, Fenerbahçe have won twice and drawn once against Sturm Graz.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals, with Sturm Graz scoring 2 and Fenerbahçe 5 overall.
- 5.Sturm Graz defenders have contributed significantly to goals this season, adding attacking depth.
- 6.Talisca is Fenerbahçe's top scorer in this competition with 2 goals in 2 games.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads are expected.
Prediction
We see Sturm Graz edging this one 1-0, likely taking the lead by halftime and holding on to it. The match is expected to be competitive with a total of around four cards, reflecting a keenly contested battle. While Fenerbahçe have quality in attack, Sturm Graz's home form and defensive contributions from players like Heil and Gorenc Stankovič give them the edge.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sturm Graz

Away — Fenerbahçe
The verdict
In summary, expect a narrow victory for Sturm Graz in a match where defensive organisation and set-piece threats could prove crucial. Fenerbahçe will push for an equaliser, but the home side's recent form and goal-scoring defenders might just tip the scales in their favour.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Semedo
Yellow Card
Brown
Yellow Card
Kayombo
Malic
Jatta
Semedo
Greenwood
Asensio
Talisca
Penalty
Gorenc Stankovič
Kanté
Talisca
Petrović
Yellow Card
Mitchell
Yellow Card
Aktürkoğlu
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Sturm Graz
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2J. MitchellD
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 11A. KayomboF
- 18E. SogloD
- 19S. SeidlM
- 20S. JattaF
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 23A. MalicD
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 53D. KhudyakovG
Substitutes
- 5A. VallciD
- 15G. MamageishviliM
- 17S. WłodarczykF
- 22A. HelacG
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 27L. BalboD
- 28J. HeilM
- 30P. KollerD
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 41E. LorenzG
- 44N. WeiperF
- 80R. FossoM
Fenerbahçe
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3A. BrownD
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 9K. AktürkoğluM
- 10Marco AsensioM
- 11M. GreenwoodM
- 15N. AkéD
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 34M. GünokG
- 37M. ŠkriniarD
- 91N. KantéM
- 94TaliscaF
Substitutes
- 4Ç. SöyüncüD
- 5İ. YüksekM
- 7FredM
- 13T. ÇetinG
- 14Y. DemirD
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 18M. MüldürD
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 26S. CherifF
- 70O. AydınF
Sturm Graz
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Khudyakov | G | 91 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeyland Mitchell | D | 91 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Jon Gorenc Stanković(C) | M | 70 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Emran Soglo | D | 91 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jacob Hödl | M | 91 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 5/9 |
| Luca Weinhandl | M | 91 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Simon Seidl | M | 91 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| Arjan Malić | D | 61 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Axel Kayombo | F | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Petar Petrović | D | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Seedy Jatta | F | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luís Balbo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Szymon Włodarczyk | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Elias Lorenz | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Halwachs | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gizo Mamageishvili | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Albert Vallci | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ammar Helac | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Koller | D | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jurgen Heil | M | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ryan Fosso | M | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nelson Weiper | F | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Belmin Beganović | F | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
Fenerbahçe
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talisca | F | 77 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Mert Günok | G | 91 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Milan Škriniar(C) | D | 91 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kerem Aktürkoğlu | M | 91 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Mattéo Guendouzi | M | 91 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Nathan Aké | D | 91 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Archie Brown | D | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| N'Golo Kanté | M | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Nélson Semedo | D | 62 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Marco Asensio | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mason Greenwood | M | 63 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Çağlar Söyüncü | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| İrfan Can Kahveci | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tarık Çetin | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yiğit Efe Demir | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sidiki Cherif | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| İsmail Yüksek | M | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vedat Muriqi | F | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fred | M | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Oğuz Aydın | F | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mert Müldür | D | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |




