Stjarnan vs Ilves
- Aggregate:
- Stjarnan 1 1 Ilves (pens)
- Advances:
- Ilves
Match recap
Stjarnan beat Ilves 1–0 in their UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Stjarnan win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
The 2nd Qualifying Round clash between Stjarnan and Ilves promises a closely fought encounter, with both sides eager to progress. Stjarnan's recent home performances and midfield contributions give them a slight edge in this matchup.
Match factors
Stjarnan's strong home scoring form
Stjarnan averages 2 goals per home game, above league average attackers' 0.9 goals per player
G. Nökkvason's recent scoring impact
Nökkvason scored the only goal in last home win vs Ilves, showing key form
Stjarnan's midfield goal threat
Midfielders like Nökkvason and Ingason exceed league average goals, pressuring Ilves defense
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from absences
The context
In this competition, Stjarnan have played four matches, winning two, drawing one, and losing one, scoring six goals and conceding four. Ilves have six matches under their belt with two wins, two draws, and two losses, netting five goals and conceding four. Their previous head-to-head meeting saw Stjarnan claim victory, adding a psychological advantage.
Key insights
- G
G. Nökkvason
Stjarnan
Nökkvason scored the only goal in the last home fixture against Ilves, highlighting his key role in Stjarnan's attack.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/271 goal in recent home match vs Ilves
- B
B. Ingason
Stjarnan
Ingason contributes offensively from midfield, adding goal threat beyond the league average, pressuring Ilves' defence.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/27Above average goals for midfielder in this competition
- G
G. Kjeldsen
Stjarnan
Kjeldsen is a defensive stalwart, helping Stjarnan concede only 0.5 goals per home game with strong interceptions and tackles.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/27Key defensive stats above league average
- M
M. Rale
Ilves
Rale is important in limiting opponent chances with solid tackling and interception stats, a key figure in Ilves' defence.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/27Strong defensive stats in this competition
Analysis
Stjarnan's midfielders, particularly G. Nökkvason and B. Ingason, have been instrumental in their attacking play, exceeding league average goal contributions from midfield. Defensively, Stjarnan have been solid at home, conceding only 0.5 goals per game on average, with G. Kjeldsen playing a key role. Ilves' defence, led by M. Rale, has been resilient but faces pressure from Stjarnan's consistent home scoring form.
Key facts
- 1.Stjarnan have played 4 matches in this competition (W2 D1 L1, GF 6 / GA 4)
- 2.Ilves have played 6 matches in this competition (W2 D2 L2, GF 5 / GA 4)
- 3.Stjarnan won the only previous head-to-head meeting against Ilves
- 4.Stjarnan average 2 goals per home game, above league average
- 5.G. Nökkvason scored the only goal in last home win vs Ilves
- 6.Stjarnan concede only 0.5 goals per home game on average
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team
- 8.Match expected to have around 4 cards
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a home win for Stjarnan with a 1-0 scoreline, reflecting their ability to edge out Ilves in a tight contest. The halftime score is also expected to be 1-0, consistent with the fulltime prediction. The match is likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
The verdict
Expect Stjarnan to leverage their home advantage and midfield strength to secure a narrow victory over Ilves. While Ilves will put up a fight, the home side's recent form and tactical edge should see them through to the next round.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:20 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
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Yellow Card
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Yellow Card
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Goal
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Yellow Card
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Stjarnan
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3G. KjeldsenD
- 4Þ. ÞórissonD
- 6S. IngimarssonD
- 7O. Eggertsson
- 8J. GunnarssonM
- 11B. IngasonM
- 12A. Olafsson
- 18G. NökkvasonM
- 22E. AtlasonF
- 23B. WarénM
- 32O. Orvarsson
Substitutes
- 1Darri Bergmann GylfasonG
- 5G. KristjánssonD
- 10D. Matthiasson
- 14B. HaukssonD
- 19A. LeifssonD
- 24S. Jonsson
- 25C. Alexandersson
- 29A. HaukssonM
- 35Bjarki Saemundsson
- 83Duro BeicG
- 94Á. VilhjálmssonF
- 99A. Bjarnason
Ilves
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3M. RaleD
- 4O. Pettersson
- 5S. VäisänenD
- 7J. VeteliM
- 9T. HytönenF
- 12F. KrkalićG
- 13K. WalliusM
- 14A. PopovitchM
- 16T. MiettunenD
- 28J. KiloM
- 30J. KangaM
Substitutes
- 1O. VirtanenG
- 10R. RiskiF
- 15L. Ala-MyllymäkiM
- 17S. BaranovM
- 19Goudouss BambaD
- 20O. TiitinenM
- 22O. MultalaM
- 24V. KumpuD
- 31R. LeislahtiG
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Stjarnan vs Ilves?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Stjarnan to win against Ilves.
- What score did Fipster predict for Stjarnan vs Ilves?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Stjarnan 1–0 Ilves.
- What were the win probabilities for Stjarnan vs Ilves?
- Fipster's model gave Stjarnan a 85% chance of winning, Ilves a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.