Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse
Brestois snatch late draw against Toulouse
Ajorque's stoppage-time strike rescues a point for Stade Brestois 29.
Toulouse looked on course for victory with goals from J. Russell-Rowe and C. Tapé, but Stade Brestois 29 fought back through K. Doumbia and a last-gasp equaliser by L. Ajorque. The 2-2 draw defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of an away win, proving the home side's resilience in Ligue 1.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Stade Brestois 29 facing off against Toulouse in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams are looking to set the tone early, with Stade Brestois bolstered by the loan arrival of E. Selvik, while Toulouse aim to leverage their slightly stronger overall performance from last season.
Key facts
- 1.Stade Brestois 29 finished 12th last season with 39 points from 34 games.
- 2.Toulouse ended last season 10th with 44 points from 33 games.
- 3.Toulouse have a better goal difference (+1) compared to Stade Brestois (-12).
- 4.Stade Brestois have added E. Selvik on loan ahead of the new season.
- 5.The predicted scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Toulouse.
- 6.Probabilities for home win, draw, and away win are all closely matched, indicating a tight contest.
The context
Neither side has played a league game yet this season, so this fixture serves as a fresh start. Stade Brestois finished just below Toulouse last term, and the visitors hold a better goal difference, hinting at a marginally stronger squad. The summer window saw Stade Brestois add E. Selvik on loan, potentially adding some fresh impetus to their ranks.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Stade Brestois 29
Away — Toulouse
Analysis
The statistical outlook suggests a tight match, with probabilities for home win, draw, and away win all fairly close. Toulouse's superior goal difference and league standing from last season give them a slight edge. The predicted 2-1 scoreline in favour of Toulouse reflects a competitive game where the visitors manage to outscore their opponents by a single goal.
Prediction
Expect Toulouse to clinch a 2-1 victory in this season opener. While Stade Brestois will be eager to impress, Toulouse's overall stronger metrics and previous season's form suggest they will come out on top, albeit narrowly.
The verdict
This match should provide an entertaining start to the campaign, with both sides eager to make a positive impression. Toulouse's slight advantage in quality and goal difference is likely to be the deciding factor in a close 2-1 win away from home.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Russell-Rowe
Assist: Gboho
Doumbia
Assist: Diambou
Locko
Yellow Card
Mboup
Yellow Card
Cásseres
Yellow Card
Diallo
Vossah
Tapé
Assist: Cásseres
Vignolo
Del Castillo
Doumbia
Diambou
Jørgensen
Russell-Rowe
Mboup
Lloris
Schmidt
Yellow Card
Ajorque
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Stade Brestois 29
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. SelvikG
- 2B. LockoD
- 4G. LlorisD
- 6M. DiambouM
- 9P. MboupM
- 10R. Del CastilloM
- 13J. ChotardM
- 19L. AjorqueF
- 23K. DoumbiaM
- 70K. LalaD
- 71R. Le GuenD
Substitutes
- 7J. Nonge BoendeM
- 8H. MagnettiM
- 11A. CamblanM
- 17Mama BaldéF
- 20L. ZogbeD
- 29L. TousartM
- 30M. PatouilletG
Toulouse
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 6A. VossahM
- 7Julián VignoloM
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 10Y. GbohoM
- 12C. TapéD
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 16G. RestesG
- 23C. CásseresM
- 94I. DialloD
Substitutes
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 19D. OdoguD
- 22R. MessaliM
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 37Y. AziziF
- 60M. NifloreG
Stade Brestois 29
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joris Chotard | M | 94 | 8.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Mamady Diambou | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Bradley Locko | D | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kamory Doumbia | M | 75 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Raphaël Le Guen | D | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kenny Lala(C) | D | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gautier Lloris | D | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Egil Selvik | G | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ludovic Ajorque | F | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Romain Del Castillo | M | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/4 |
| Pathé Mboup | M | 83 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luc Zogbé | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Axel Camblan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathieu Patouillet | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joseph Nonge | M | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Magnetti | M | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Tousart | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mama Baldé | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
Toulouse
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | M | 94 | 8.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| Christ Tapé | D | 94 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen(C) | D | 94 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacen Russell Rowe | F | 78 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Mark McKenzie | D | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guillaume Restes | G | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yann Gboho | M | 94 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Alexis Vossah | M | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ismail Diallo | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Julian Vignolo | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Thomas Jørgensen | M | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mathys Niflore | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilyas Azizi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Odogu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aymen Amaaouch | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Niklas Schmidt | M | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seny Koumbassa | D | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Hidalgo | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sion Oppong | F | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafik Messali | M | 49 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Toulouse to win against Stade Brestois 29.
- What score did Fipster predict for Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Toulouse.
- What were the win probabilities for Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse?
- Fipster's model gave Stade Brestois 29 a 25% chance of winning, Toulouse a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 49% confidence — a medium-confidence call.