St. Louis City vs San Diego
Match recap
San Diego beat St. Louis City 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Dreyer scored for San Diego. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.39 for St. Louis City versus 0.75 for San Diego. St. Louis City sit 4th in the Major League Soccer table while San Diego are 13th.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, St. Louis City and San Diego prepare to face off in what promises to be a goal-filled encounter. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but the home side's recent form suggests they will have the edge.
Match factors
St. Louis City's attacking trio in strong form
Navarro, Holse, and Becher have high recent goal involvement and ratings, boosting home attack potential
San Diego's Dreyer leads assists
Dreyer's 3 assists recently and high passing accuracy make him a key creative threat
Defensive midfield control by Godoy
Godoy's high tackle and passing stats provide San Diego defensive stability and transition control
San Diego's scoring streak despite defensive issues
San Diego has scored in last 5 matches but concedes frequently, indicating open games likely
St. Louis City's midfield absences may affect creativity
Confirmed outs of key midfielders could reduce creativity and defensive cover for St. Louis City
The context
St. Louis City currently sit 3rd in the league with 51 points from 32 games, boasting a positive goal difference of +11. San Diego, meanwhile, are 13th with 35 points from 31 games and a goal difference of -3. Historically, San Diego have had the upper hand in their three meetings, but the current season's form favours St. Louis City.
Key insights
- R
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro has consistently high ratings above 8.0 and is a top scorer in recent matches, boosting St. Louis City's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple multi-goal games and strong goal contributions this season.
- C
Carlo Holse
St. Louis City
Holse's high goal involvement and exceptional 9.76 match rating make him a key attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple goals and assists recently in competition 253.
- S
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
Becher regularly scores and assists, maintaining high match ratings to support the home side's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/27Multiple goals and assists in recent fixtures.
- A
Anders Dreyer
San Diego
Dreyer leads San Diego's assists with 3 recently and has high passing accuracy, making him their main creative outlet.
Major League Soccer 26/273 assists in recent games this season.
- A
Aníbal Godoy
San Diego
Godoy provides defensive stability with high tackle and interception numbers, crucial for San Diego's midfield control.
Major League Soccer 26/27High tackle and interception stats in competition 253.
Analysis
St. Louis City's attacking trio of Rafael Navarro, Carlo Holse, and Simon Becher have been in fine form, combining for multiple goals and assists recently. Navarro consistently earns ratings above 8.0 and has been a top scorer in recent fixtures. Holse's exceptional match rating of 9.76 highlights his threat, while Becher's goal-scoring and assist record add further firepower. San Diego's Anders Dreyer leads their assists with three recently and maintains high passing accuracy, making him a key creative outlet. Defensive stalwarts like Aníbal Godoy provide San Diego with stability, but their tendency to concede goals suggests an open game. St. Louis City's midfield absences could slightly hamper creativity, but their attacking prowess is expected to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.St. Louis City are 3rd in the league with 51 points from 32 games.
- 2.San Diego sit 13th with 35 points from 31 games.
- 3.St. Louis City have a +11 goal difference; San Diego have -3.
- 4.In three head-to-head matches, San Diego have won twice, St. Louis City none.
- 5.St. Louis City's Navarro, Holse, and Becher have high recent goal involvement.
- 6.San Diego's Dreyer leads with 3 assists recently.
- 7.Prediction expects 4 total cards, indicating moderate discipline issues.
Prediction
The prediction is a home win for St. Louis City with a 4-2 final scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 2-1, reflecting a competitive start before the home side pulls away. A total of four cards is anticipated, indicating a moderately physical contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — St. Louis City
Away — San Diego
The verdict
In summary, St. Louis City's strong attacking form and league standing suggest they will overcome San Diego's spirited efforts. Fans can look forward to an entertaining match with plenty of goals and a confident home victory.
Prediction generated 29 Oct 2026, 04:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Dreyer
Assist: Alvarado
B. Zamble
Alvarado
Yellow Card
Edelman
Navarro
Jeong Sang-Bin
Soma
Murphy
Sargeant
MacNaughton
Yellow Card
Wallem
MacNaughton
Holse
Yellow Card
Dreyer
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 51 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 51 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United FC | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -4 | 41 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | -5 | 38 |
| 14 |  Austin | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -21 | 34 |
Match Statistics
St. Louis City
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 39B. LundtG
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 7T. OstrákM
- 11S. BecherF
- 18C. BrunetM
- 27F. FallD
- 31C. OlivaresG
- 42D. DownsF
- 48Riley LynchF
- 99J. OrozcoD
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 15P. SomaM
- 32I. MurphyD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 19D. VazquezM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 26M. DuahM
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 90A. PellegrinoF
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Baumgartl | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Polvara | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| C. Holse | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/5 |
| T. Totland | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Rafael Navarro | F | 63 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| T. Ostrák | M | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| C. Durkin | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| B. Lundt | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Fall | D | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Downs | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Becher | F | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Edelman | M | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Riley Lynch | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jeong Sang-Bin | F | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Wallem | M | 79 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| L. MacNaughton | D | 79 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| J. Orozco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Brunet | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Fall | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Olivares | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Sisniega | G | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dreyer | F | 88 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | — |
| A. Alvarado | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| D. Þórhallsson | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| D. Vazquez | M | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| C. McVey | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 25 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| O. Verhoeven | D | 17 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Murphy | D | 73 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Duah | M | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Soma | M | 65 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Tverskov | M | 2 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Valakari | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| B. B. Zamble | F | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Ingvartsen | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| A. Godoy | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. dos Santos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Pellegrino | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win St. Louis City vs San Diego?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against San Diego.
- What score did Fipster predict for St. Louis City vs San Diego?
- Fipster predicted a final score of St. Louis City 4–2 San Diego.
- What were the win probabilities for St. Louis City vs San Diego?
- Fipster's model gave St. Louis City a 91% chance of winning, San Diego a 4% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 91% confidence — a high-confidence call.