St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers edge St. Louis in five-goal thriller
K. Velde's brace powers Timbers to a narrow victory despite late St. Louis fightback.
Portland Timbers secured a 3-2 win over St. Louis City in a closely contested Major League Soccer match. K. Velde's two goals, including one just after the break, set the tone before St. Louis rallied with strikes from D. Edelman and Jeong Sang-Bin, the latter in stoppage time. The result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a dominant 4-1 home win, delivering a much tighter contest than expected.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, St. Louis City and Portland Timbers face off in a fixture that promises goals and excitement. With St. Louis City sitting comfortably near the top of the table and Portland struggling to find consistency, this match looks set to favour the home side.
Match factors
Navarro's prolific scoring form vs Portland's defense
Rafael Navarro's 8 goals in 8 games and strong recent form give St. Louis a clear attacking edge
Holse's home scoring streak boosts St. Louis attack
Carl Holse has scored 6 goals in last 10 home games, exploiting home advantage
Doubtful status of key playmakers Mățan and Wallem
Alexandru Mățan and Conrad Wallem are doubtful, capping their assist probabilities
St. Louis City's superior goal scoring rate at home
St. Louis averages 2.3 goals per home game, well above Portland's 1.33 away goals
Portland Timbers' recent scoring struggles
Portland's top scorers have no goals in last 5 matches, indicating poor form
The context
St. Louis City currently rank 2nd in the league with 51 points from 30 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +15. In contrast, Portland Timbers sit 11th with 34 points and a -5 goal difference. Their head-to-head history is fairly balanced, but recent form and league standings suggest a clear edge for St. Louis City.
Key insights
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro's 8 goals in 8 games and recent form give St. Louis a clear attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 8 appearances, 0.8 goals/game last 10
- C
Carl Holse Justesen
St. Louis City
Holse's 6 goals in last 10 home games boost St. Louis City's attack significantly.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 10 appearances, 0.6 goals/game last 10
Alexandru Mățan
St. Louis City
Mățan is doubtful but remains a key creative midfielder with 4 assists in 10 games.
Major League Soccer 26/274 assists in 10 appearances, 0.4 assists/game season
Kristoffer Velde
Portland Timbers
Velde's 8 goals in 28 games show solid output, but Portland's recent scoring struggles persist.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 28 appearances, 0.3 goals/game last 10
Analysis
St. Louis City's attacking threat is spearheaded by Rafael Navarro, who has netted 8 goals in 8 games, including 4 in his last 5 matches. Carl Holse Justesen adds to the firepower with 6 goals in his last 10 home games. Portland's key attackers have struggled recently, with no goals in their last 5 matches, highlighting their current scoring woes. Doubts over the fitness of creative midfielders Alexandru Mățan and Conrad Wallem further hamper Portland's chances. St. Louis City's home scoring average of 2.3 goals per game dwarfs Portland's 1.33 away goals, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter favouring the hosts.
Key facts
- 1.St. Louis City ranks 2nd with 51 points from 30 games (W14 D9 L7).
- 2.Portland Timbers are 11th with 34 points from 30 games (W9 D7 L14).
- 3.St. Louis City has a +15 goal difference; Portland Timbers have -5.
- 4.Head-to-head record: St. Louis City 3 wins, Portland Timbers 2 wins, 3 draws in 8 matches.
- 5.St. Louis City averages 2.3 goals per home game; Portland Timbers average 1.33 away goals.
- 6.Rafael Navarro has scored 8 goals in 8 games this season.
- 7.Carl Holse Justesen has 6 goals in his last 10 home games.
- 8.Predicted fulltime score is 4-1 in favour of St. Louis City.
Prediction
We expect St. Louis City to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime before extending their advantage to a 4-1 fulltime victory. The match should feature around three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled contest. Rafael Navarro and Carl Holse Justesen are primed to make significant contributions, capitalising on Portland's defensive vulnerabilities.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — St. Louis City
Away — Portland Timbers
The verdict
In summary, St. Louis City's superior form, goal-scoring ability, and home advantage make them strong favourites to secure a convincing win over Portland Timbers. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with plenty of goals and moments of quality from the home side's key players.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 04:41 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Velde
Assist: Bassett
Pereira da Costa
Assist: Fory
Downs
Velde
Assist: Pereira da Costa
Edelman
Assist: Holse
Bassett
Ortiz
Izoita
Yellow Card
Fory
Miller
Yellow Card
Lassiter
Chará
Edelman
Totland
Velde
Janssen
Yellow Card
Smith
Yellow Card
Jeong Sang-Bin
Assist: Durkin
Miller
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 51 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 51 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | -6 | 44 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
Match Statistics
St. Louis City
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseM
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 39B. LundtG
- 42D. DownsF
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 11S. BecherF
- 18C. BrunetM
- 27F. FallD
- 28M. PerezM
- 31C. OlivaresG
- 48Riley LynchF
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 99J. OrozcoD
Portland Timbers
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 7A. LassiterF
- 10David Pereira da CostaF
- 12R. HernándezD
- 17C. BassettM
- 21D. CharáM
- 27J. ForyD
- 41J. PantemisG
- 80J. OrtizM
- 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
- 14V. JanssenF
- 15E. MillerD
- 20F. SurmanD
- 22O. FernandezF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 26H. SulteG
- 28A. AravenaF
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 73Eric IzoitaM
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Holse | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0/2 |
| Jeong Sang-Bin | F | 44 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Edelman | M | 79 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Durkin | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Wallem | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| D. Polvara | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| T. Baumgartl | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Totland | M | 79 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| L. MacNaughton | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Downs | F | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| S. Becher | F | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Navarro | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| F. Fall | D | 11 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Lundt | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Orozco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Fall | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Olivares | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Perez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riley Lynch | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Brunet | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Portland Timbers
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Velde | F | 83 | 9.1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/4 |
| David Pereira da Costa | F | 90 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2/3 |
| A. Aravena | F | 30 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Fory | D | 67 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Lassiter | F | 75 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| C. Bassett | M | 60 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Pantemis | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Chará | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| F. Surman | D | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Waterman | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| V. Janssen | F | 15 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Caicedo | M | 15 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Hernández | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ortiz | M | 60 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ian Smith | D | 23 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Izoita | M | 30 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Miller | D | 96 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Sulte | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Miller | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Fernandez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against Portland Timbers.
- What score did Fipster predict for St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster predicted a final score of St. Louis City 4–1 Portland Timbers.
- What were the win probabilities for St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's model gave St. Louis City a 95% chance of winning, Portland Timbers a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.