St. Louis City vs New England Revolution
Match recap
St. Louis City beat New England Revolution 3–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Becher, Durkin, and Hartel scored for St. Louis City; Feingold replied for New England Revolution. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.12 for St. Louis City versus 1.21 for New England Revolution.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-2 St. Louis City win
Actual
3–1
Outcome probability
St. Louis City and New England Revolution face off in an MLS regular season match where goals are expected aplenty. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but St. Louis City's recent form and home scoring streak suggest they will edge this one.
Match factors
St. Louis City's potent attacking trio
Becher and Navarro show strong recent scoring form, likely to exploit New England's defense
Carles Gil's creative influence for New England
Gil leads away team in goals and assists, key to unlocking St. Louis defense
Home scoring streak for St. Louis City
St. Louis City has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 4 goals
New England's defensive struggles away
New England concedes 1.64 goals away on average, vulnerable to St. Louis attack
St. Louis missing key midfielder Pompeu
Pompeu out with knee injury reduces midfield depth and creativity options
The context
This fixture is part of the MLS regular season, round 5. Historically, the teams have met three times with a balanced record: one win each and a draw. The average goals per match between them is three, indicating a lively encounter.
Key insights
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
Becher's recent scoring form is impressive, netting 3 goals in the last 5 games, making him a key threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 25 apps, 0.24 avg per game
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro's exceptional recent form with 5 goals in 5 games boosts St. Louis City's attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in 5 apps, 1.0 avg per game
Carles Gil
New England Revolution
Gil is the creative hub and top scorer for New England, crucial for their chances to breach St. Louis City's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 27 apps, 0.44 avg per game
Analysis
St. Louis City boast a potent attacking trio, with Simon Becher and Rafael Navarro in fine scoring form recently. Becher has netted 6 goals in 25 appearances, including 3 in the last 5 games, while Navarro has an impressive 5 goals in his last 5 matches. Their home scoring streak, having scored in their last 5 home games, adds to their offensive threat. New England Revolution rely heavily on Carles Gil, their top scorer with 12 goals this season, who also contributes creatively. However, New England's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, conceding an average of 1.64 goals away, could be exploited by St. Louis City's attack. The absence of St. Louis midfielder Pompeu due to a knee injury slightly reduces their midfield depth but is unlikely to derail their attacking momentum.
Key facts
- 1.St. Louis City have scored in their last 5 home games.
- 2.Simon Becher has scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches.
- 3.Rafael Navarro boasts 5 goals in his last 5 appearances.
- 4.Carles Gil leads New England Revolution with 12 goals this season.
- 5.New England concede an average of 1.64 goals per away game.
- 6.The teams have met 3 times previously with one win each and one draw.
- 7.Average goals per head-to-head match is 3.0.
Prediction
We predict a 4-2 victory for St. Louis City, building on their strong home form and attacking capabilities. The halftime scoreline of 2-1 aligns with the expected flow of the match, with St. Louis City maintaining their edge throughout.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — St. Louis City
Away — New England Revolution
The verdict
Expect an entertaining match with plenty of goals as St. Louis City leverage their home advantage and attacking trio to overcome New England Revolution. The visitors will find it tough to contain the hosts' offensive firepower, resulting in a high-scoring affair.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:18 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Feingold
Assist: Langoni
Becher
Assist: Edelman
Rafael Santos
Yellow Card
Durkin
Assist: Rafael Santos
Ceballos
Yellow Card
Turgeman
Langoni
Fofana
Yellow Card
Célio Pompeu
Sands
Raines
Yellow Card
Unknown
Hartel
Orozco
Yellow Card
Polvara
Orozco
Bürki
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
Match Statistics
St. Louis City
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 12Célio PompeuF
- 17M. HartelF
- 20Rafael Santos
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 14T. TotlandD
- 16S. CórdovaF
- 28M. PerezM
- 39B. LundtG
- 59M. JoynerM
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 80Brendan McSorleyF
New England Revolution
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2M. FofanaD
- 3B. CeballosD
- 8M. PolsterM
- 10Carles GilM
- 11D. TurgemanF
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 21B. RainesM
- 23W. SandsD
- 30M. TurnerG
- 41L. LangoniF
- 80A. YusufF
Substitutes
- 4T. BeasonD
- 5K. HughesD
- 7G. YowF
- 9L. CampanaF
- 14J. YueillM
- 22E. KohlerD
- 25P. MillerD
- 73JD GunnG
- 77D. FagundezM
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Hartel | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Roman Bürki(C) | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Durkin | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Dante Polvara | D | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Celio Pompeu | F | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Brendan McSorley | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mykhi Joyner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Perez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Mbacke | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sang-bin Jeong | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Lundt | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Totland | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Córdova | F | 17 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New England Revolution
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carles Gil(C) | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0/3 |
| Alhassan Yusuf | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Matt Turner | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilay Feingold | D | 90 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Matt Polster | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dor Turgeman | F | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| William Sands | D | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Langoni | F | 59 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Brayan Ceballos | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Fofana | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brooklyn Raines | M | 73 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| JD Gunn | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ethan Kohler | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keegan Hughes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tanner Beason | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Fagúndez | M | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Leonardo Campana | F | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Griffin Yow | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peyton Miller | D | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jackson Yueill | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win St. Louis City vs New England Revolution?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against New England Revolution.
- What score did Fipster predict for St. Louis City vs New England Revolution?
- Fipster predicted a final score of St. Louis City 4–2 New England Revolution.
- What were the win probabilities for St. Louis City vs New England Revolution?
- Fipster's model gave St. Louis City a 75% chance of winning, New England Revolution a 12% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 75% confidence — a high-confidence call.