St. Louis City vs Charlotte
Match recap
St. Louis City and Charlotte drew 1–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Hartel scored for St. Louis City; Biel replied for Charlotte. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.59 for St. Louis City versus 0.59 for Charlotte.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 St. Louis City win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with St. Louis City and Charlotte set to battle it out in what promises to be an entertaining clash. Both teams have attacking threats capable of lighting up the scoreboard, making this a fixture to watch closely.
Match factors
St. Louis City's attacking trio in strong recent form
Becher and Navarro lead scoring with excellent recent goal rates, supported by Hartel's creativity
Charlotte's forward Idan Toklomati Giorno is a key scoring threat
Giorno has 4 goals in last 5 games and leads Charlotte's scoring this season
Tomas Totland's dual threat as defender and assist provider
Totland contributes both goals and assists above league average for defenders
Pep Biel's consistent creative output for Charlotte
Biel has 7 assists this season and recent assists in last 5 games, key playmaker
St. Louis City missing two confirmed players
Defender K. Hiebert and midfielder Célio Pompeu are out, affecting depth and rotation
The context
This match marks the first round of the regular season, with both sides eager to start on a positive note. St. Louis City currently sit second in their league standings, showcasing consistent form, while Charlotte will be looking to upset the odds and make their mark early on.
Key insights
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
Becher's recent scoring spree with 3 goals in the last 5 games makes him a key threat for the home side.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 25 appearances this season
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro's exceptional form, netting 5 goals in his last 5 games, adds firepower to St. Louis City's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in 5 appearances this season
Idan Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Giorno is Charlotte's top scorer with 11 goals this season, including 4 in the last 5 games, making him a constant danger.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 27 appearances this season
Pep Biel
Charlotte
Biel's creativity shines through with 7 assists this season, crucial for Charlotte's attacking play.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 28 appearances this season
Analysis
St. Louis City boast a potent attacking trio, with Simon Becher and Rafael Navarro in particularly fine recent form, combining for multiple goals in their last outings. Marcel Hartel adds creativity and goal threat, making the home side a formidable force. Charlotte counter with Idan Toklomati Giorno, their top scorer with 11 goals this season, and Pep Biel, a key playmaker with seven assists. Defensive absences for St. Louis City, including K. Hiebert and Célio Pompeu, could test their depth, but their attacking prowess should keep them competitive.
Key facts
- 1.St. Louis City are currently ranked 2nd in their league with 47 points from 27 games.
- 2.In two previous meetings, St. Louis City have won once and drawn once against Charlotte.
- 3.Simon Becher has scored 6 goals in 25 appearances this season, including 3 in his last 5 games.
- 4.Rafael Navarro boasts 5 goals in his last 5 appearances, showing excellent recent form.
- 5.Charlotte's Idan Toklomati Giorno leads their scoring with 11 goals this season.
- 6.Pep Biel has contributed 7 assists and 11 goals for Charlotte this season.
- 7.St. Louis City are missing defender K. Hiebert and midfielder Célio Pompeu due to injury.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for St. Louis City with a 3-2 scoreline after a closely contested 1-1 at halftime. The data suggests a lively, open game with both teams finding the net, but ultimately the home side's attacking depth should see them edge ahead in the second half.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — St. Louis City
Away — Charlotte
The verdict
Fans can anticipate an exciting start to the season with plenty of goals and end-to-end action. St. Louis City's attacking strengths and home advantage should be enough to secure the three points, but Charlotte's threats mean it won't be a straightforward victory.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:40 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Privett
Yellow Card
Baumgartl
Yellow Card
Jeong Sang-Bin
Hartel
Assist: Becher
Orozco
Yellow Card
Abada
de la Torre
Toffolo
Zaha
Yellow Card
Biel
Assist: Zaha
Durkin
Polvara
Toklomati Giorno
Becher
Rafael Santos
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
Match Statistics
St. Louis City
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 17M. HartelF
- 20Rafael SantosM
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 12Célio PompeuM
- 14T. TotlandD
- 22K. HiebertD
- 28M. PerezM
- 36C. TeuchertF
- 39B. LundtG
- 59M. JoynerM
- 80Brendan McSorleyF
Charlotte
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 3T. ReamD
- 4A. PrivettD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10W. ZahaM
- 11L. AbadaM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielM
- 17L. de la TorreM
Substitutes
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 13B. BronicoM
- 18K. VargasF
- 21T. MillerG
- 23D. SchneggD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 28D. DianiM
- 39J. NeeleyD
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Hartel | F | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 4 | 5 | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 89 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3/4 |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Christopher Durkin | M | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Roman Bürki(C) | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sang-bin Jeong | F | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dante Polvara | D | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | M | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2/5 |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mykhi Joyner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Hiebert | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Celio Pompeu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Lundt | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Totland | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cedric Teuchert | F | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Brendan McSorley | F | 31 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Perez | M | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristijan Kahlina | G | 90 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Privett | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ashley Westwood(C) | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pep Biel | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Wilfried Zaha | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 3/5 |
| Tim Ream | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Harry Toffolo | D | 69 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca De La Torre | M | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nathan Byrne | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/5 |
| Liel Abada | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Idan Toklomati Jorno | F | 87 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Morrison Agyemang | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandt Bronico | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Miller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Archie Goodwin | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Neeley | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Djibril Diani | M | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kerwin Calderón Vargas | F | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| David Schnegg | D | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Tyger Smalls | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win St. Louis City vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against Charlotte.
- What score did Fipster predict for St. Louis City vs Charlotte?
- Fipster predicted a final score of St. Louis City 3–2 Charlotte.
- What were the win probabilities for St. Louis City vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's model gave St. Louis City a 67% chance of winning, Charlotte a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 67% confidence — a high-confidence call.