Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Sporting Kansas City 3–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Bartlett scored for Sporting Kansas City; Skahan, Skahan, and Romney replied for San Jose Earthquakes. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.78 for Sporting Kansas City versus 1.71 for San Jose Earthquakes. Sporting Kansas City sit 15th in the Major League Soccer table while San Jose Earthquakes are 4th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Sporting Kansas City win
Actual
1–3
Outcome probability
Sporting Kansas City and San Jose Earthquakes are set for a captivating clash in the regular season, with both sides boasting attacking talents eager to make their mark. Expect a game full of goals and tactical battles.
Match factors
André Luiz's scoring form boosts Sporting KC attack
André Luiz has scored 7 goals in 7 games, providing a key scoring threat at home
Preston Judd leads away scoring for San Jose
Judd's 15 goals this season make him a major threat despite away venue
Manu García's creative influence is rising
García has 4 assists this season and strong recent passing stats, aiding Sporting KC's attack
Jacob Davis absence weakens Sporting KC midfield defense
Davis is confirmed out, removing a key defensive midfielder and disrupting balance
San Jose's midfield creativity with Tsakiris and Leroux
Tsakiris and Leroux combine for 14 assists, enhancing San Jose's chance creation
The context
This fixture sees Sporting Kansas City, currently 15th in the league with 22 points from 28 games, face off against San Jose Earthquakes, who sit comfortably in 4th place with 46 points. Historically, their encounters have been competitive, averaging over three goals per match across 20 meetings.
Key insights
André Luiz
Sporting Kansas City
André Luiz's 7 goals in 7 games make him a key scoring threat at home for Sporting KC.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 7 appearances, 69 avg mins/game
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Preston Judd's 15 goals this season highlight his major threat even away from home.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 appearances, 69.1 avg mins/game
Manu García
Sporting Kansas City
Manu García's 4 assists and creative play are vital to Sporting KC's attacking chances.
Major League Soccer 26/274 assists in 18 appearances, 70.2 avg mins/game
- J
Jacob Davis
Sporting Kansas City
Jacob Davis's absence due to injury weakens Sporting KC's midfield defensive stability.
Analysis
San Jose's Preston Judd leads the scoring charts with 15 goals this season, making him a significant threat even away from home. Sporting KC's André Luiz counters with an impressive 7 goals in 7 games, particularly potent on home turf. The absence of Sporting's defensive midfielder Jacob Davis could tip the midfield balance, while creative forces like Manu García and San Jose's duo Tsakiris and Leroux promise plenty of chances. The halftime scoreline of 1-1 aligns with the predicted close full-time result, suggesting a tightly contested match with end-to-end action.
Key facts
- 1.Sporting Kansas City are 15th in the league with 22 points from 28 games.
- 2.San Jose Earthquakes hold 4th place with 46 points from 28 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Sporting KC have won 9, San Jose 5, with 6 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.3 total goals.
- 5.André Luiz has scored 7 goals in 7 games for Sporting KC this season.
- 6.Preston Judd leads San Jose with 15 goals this season.
- 7.Manu García has provided 4 assists, boosting Sporting KC's creativity.
- 8.Jacob Davis is out injured, weakening Sporting KC's midfield defense.
Prediction
The forecast leans towards a home win for Sporting Kansas City with a 3-2 scoreline. While the margin is slim, the home side's attacking prowess and key players' form give them the edge. Expect a thrilling encounter with goals aplenty and a narrow victory for Sporting KC.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sporting Kansas City
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
In summary, this match promises excitement and fine margins. Sporting Kansas City's attacking talents and home advantage should see them just edge past San Jose Earthquakes in a 3-2 thriller. Fans can look forward to a match full of goals and competitive spirit.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:15 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bartlett
Skahan
Assist: Tsakiris
Skahan
Suleymanov
Yellow Card
Harris
Suleymanov
Manu García
Skahan
Leroux
Romney
Assist: Munie
Kikanovic
Reid
Bartlett
Calheira
Yellow Card
Judd
Card reviewed
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Sporting Kansas City
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1J. PulskampG
- 2I. JamesD
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 6Manu GarcíaF
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 11C. HarrisM
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 16J. BartlettM
- 93M. SuleymanovM
- 99J. ReidD
Substitutes
- 7CapitaF
- 8J. DavisM
- 12J. KortkampG
- 14M. TschantretM
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 23E. BartlowD
San Jose Earthquakes
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4D. RomneyD
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaF
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 16J. SkahanF
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 42DanielG
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 20N. FernandezM
- 21N. BuckM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 32N. AdimabuaF
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 40J. GónzalezM
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Bartlett | M | 81 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Lasse Berg Johnsen | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Reynolds | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Ian James | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Dejan Joveljić(C) | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Magomed Shapi Suleymanov | M | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Calvin Harris | M | 57 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jayden Reid | D | 81 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Diego Borges | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Manu García | F | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/4 |
| John Pulskamp | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Macielo Tschantret | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ethan Bartlow | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jansen Miller | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Kortkamp | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stephen Afrifa | F | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Kwaku Agyabeng | M | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Capita | F | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jacob Davis | M | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Taylor Calheira | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Skahan | F | 69 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3/6 |
| Daniel Munie | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Dave Romney | D | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Niko Tsakiris | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | 2/4 |
| Benjamin Kikanović | D | 76 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Reid Roberts | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 69 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ronaldo Vieira(C) | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Preston Judd | F | 87 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Ousseni Bouda | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Daniel | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jonathan Gonzalez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nonso Adimabua | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Floriani | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earl Edwards Jr. | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noel Buck | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Jasinski | D | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Fernandez | M | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Harkes | M | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Marie | D | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sporting Kansas City to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sporting Kansas City 3–2 San Jose Earthquakes.
- What were the win probabilities for Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's model gave Sporting Kansas City a 35% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.