Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego
Match recap
San Diego beat Sporting Kansas City 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Dreyer scored for San Diego. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.36 for Sporting Kansas City versus 2.02 for San Diego. Sporting Kansas City sit 15th in the Major League Soccer table while San Diego are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-2 Sporting Kansas City win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
Sporting Kansas City and San Diego face off in what promises to be an entertaining clash. Despite San Diego's early lead, the home side's attacking firepower is expected to turn the tide.
Match factors
André Luiz's recent scoring form boosts home attack
André Luiz has scored 8 goals in 6 games, providing a strong attacking edge for Sporting Kansas City
Marcus Ingvartsen leads away scoring threat
Ingvartsen tops San Diego with 12 goals this season, a key factor in their predicted 2 goals
Anders Dreyer's assist streak fuels away creativity
Dreyer has 11 assists this season and 2 in last 5 games, driving San Diego's attacking chances
Home team missing Jacob Davis weakens midfield creativity
Davis is confirmed out, reducing Sporting Kansas City's midfield passing and assist potential
Manu García's creative role key for home scoring
García leads home assists with 4, crucial for linking midfield to forwards despite doubtful status
The context
This match is part of the regular season's third round. Sporting Kansas City currently sit 15th in their league with 22 points from 28 games, while San Diego are slightly better placed at 12th with 32 points from the same number of matches. Historically, San Diego have had the upper hand in their head-to-head encounters, but recent form and home advantage could shift the balance.
Key insights
André Luiz
Sporting Kansas City
André Luiz's recent scoring form boosts home attack with 8 goals in 6 games, making him a lethal threat.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 6 appearances, 1.6 goals/game last 5
Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen
San Diego
Marcus Ingvartsen leads San Diego's scoring threat with 12 goals this season, key to their predicted 2 goals.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 23 appearances, 0.52 goals/game
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Anders Dreyer's assist streak fuels San Diego's creativity with 11 assists this season and 2 in last 5 games.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 assists in 26 appearances, 0.42 assists/game
Manu García
Sporting Kansas City
Manu García's creative role is key for Sporting Kansas City's scoring, leading with 4 assists despite doubtful status.
Major League Soccer 26/274 assists in 18 appearances, 0.22 assists/game
Analysis
San Diego took a 1-0 lead by halftime, but Sporting Kansas City's attacking talents, particularly André Luiz with his impressive recent scoring streak, are poised to respond strongly. The home side's ability to score multiple goals is supported by their key playmaker Manu García, despite his doubtful status. San Diego's main threat comes from Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen, their top scorer, and Anders Laustrup Dreyer, their leading assister. However, Sporting Kansas City's offensive momentum and tactical adjustments are likely to see them overturn the deficit and claim a 4-2 win.
Key facts
- 1.Sporting Kansas City are 15th in the league with 22 points from 28 games.
- 2.San Diego are 12th with 32 points from 28 games.
- 3.San Diego lead head-to-head with 2 wins to Sporting Kansas City's none in 3 meetings.
- 4.André Luiz has scored 8 goals in his last 6 games, boosting Sporting Kansas City's attack.
- 5.Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen is San Diego's top scorer with 12 goals this season.
- 6.Anders Laustrup Dreyer leads San Diego with 11 assists this season.
- 7.Manu García leads Sporting Kansas City with 4 assists but is doubtful for this match.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
We predict Sporting Kansas City will win 4-2, overturning the halftime deficit with a strong second-half performance. The halftime scoreline of 2-1 in favour of San Diego aligns with the expected fulltime turnaround. Expect a lively match with around four cards issued, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sporting Kansas City
Away — San Diego
The verdict
In summary, Sporting Kansas City's attacking edge and home advantage should see them through to a 4-2 victory over San Diego. While San Diego have their key players to rely on, the home side's recent form and tactical strengths make them the favourites to take all three points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:23 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bombino
Yellow Card
Miller
Yellow Card
Manu García
Yellow Card
Dreyer
Assist: Valakari
Bombino
Soma
Bartlett
Duah
Yellow Card
Ingvartsen
McVey
Yellow Card
Suleymanov
Harris
Vazquez
Yellow Card
Davis
Yellow Card
Valakari
Pellegrino
Davis
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Sporting Kansas City
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. PulskampG
- 6Manu GarcíaM
- 8J. DavisM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 11C. HarrisM
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 16J. BartlettM
- 23E. BartlowD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 93M. SuleymanovM
- 99J. ReidD
Substitutes
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 14M. TschantretM
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 41P. Lurot
- 61Z. Loyo ReynagaM
- 88S. DonovanM
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 6J. TverskovM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 15P. SomaM
- 18D. FerreeG
- 26M. DuahD
- 27L. BombinoD
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 9L. MorganF
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 21B. DukeM
- 25I. PilcherD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 77A. MightenF
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Bartlow | D | 96 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jacob Davis | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jansen Miller | D | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Pulskamp | G | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calvin Harris | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jayden Reid | D | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Magomed Shapi Suleymanov | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Manu García | M | 96 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Jacob Bartlett | M | 71 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Dejan Joveljić(C) | F | 96 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Wyatt Meyer | D | 96 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Shane Donovan | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Cleveland | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lasse Berg Johnsen | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Macielo Tschantret | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zamir Loyo Reynaga | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stephen Afrifa | F | 25 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Kwaku Agyabeng | M | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Taylor Calheira | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Dreyer | F | 96 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Jeppe Tverskov(C) | M | 96 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Manu Duah | D | 96 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duran Ferree | G | 96 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher McVey | D | 96 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Soma | M | 64 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luca Bombino | D | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | F | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Onni Valakari | M | 94 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 96 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Amahl Pellegrino | F | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Pablo Sisniega | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Mighten | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryce Duke | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryan Zamblé | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Pilcher | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aníbal Godoy | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Verhoeven | D | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lewis Morgan | F | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| David Vazquez | M | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sporting Kansas City to win against San Diego.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sporting Kansas City 4–2 San Diego.
- What were the win probabilities for Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego?
- Fipster's model gave Sporting Kansas City a 81% chance of winning, San Diego a 9% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 81% confidence — a high-confidence call.