Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
Timbers and Sporting share six-goal thriller
A pulsating 3-3 draw sees André Luiz's brace keep Sporting Kansas City in the hunt.
Portland Timbers took an early lead through David Pereira da Costa and extended it with a penalty by V. Janssen just before half-time. Sporting Kansas City responded immediately after the break with André Luiz converting a missed penalty rebound and later adding a second goal, while J. Reynolds also found the net to level the scores. A. Lassiter's strike for Portland kept the contest alive, resulting in a thrilling 3-3 draw that defied Fipster's confident prediction of a home win by a clear margin.
Outcome probability
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers face off in a regular season clash where the home side looks poised to assert their attacking strength. With recent goal-scoring momentum and key players in form, this match promises plenty of action.
Match factors
André Luiz's recent scoring form
André Luiz has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat in attack for Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City's home scoring streak
Sporting Kansas City has scored in their last 3 home games, showing strong offensive momentum at home
Kevin Kelsy's goal threat for Portland
Kevin Kelsy leads Portland with 9 goals this season, though no goals in last 5, he remains a key scoring option
Impact of Jacob Davis's uncertain availability
Jacob Davis is doubtful due to injury; if unavailable, Sporting Kansas City may lack midfield defensive stability
David Pereira da Costa's creative influence
David Pereira da Costa is Portland's top assister with 7 assists, crucial for creating scoring chances
The context
Portland Timbers hold a better league position and goal difference than Sporting Kansas City, but the head-to-head record favours Portland with 10 wins out of 20 meetings. However, Sporting Kansas City have shown resilience and scoring ability at home, setting the stage for an intriguing contest.
Key insights
André Luiz
Sporting Kansas City
André Luiz has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat in attack for Sporting Kansas City.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals in last 5 games, 5 appearances, 0.8 goals/game
Dejan Joveljić
Sporting Kansas City
Dejan Joveljić is a consistent starter and captain with 8 goals this season, providing a strong attacking focal point at home.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 20 games, 1776 minutes, 0.4 goals/game
David Pereira da Costa
Portland Timbers
David Pereira da Costa leads Portland with 7 assists, crucial for creating scoring chances and playmaking.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 23 games, 1904 minutes, 0.3 assists/game
- K
Kevin Kelsy Genez
Portland Timbers
Kevin Kelsy is Portland's top scorer with 9 goals this season, though he has not scored in the last 5 games.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 20 games, 1273 minutes, 0.45 goals/game
Analysis
Sporting Kansas City's recent offensive form is impressive, with André Luiz netting 4 goals in his last 5 games and Dejan Joveljić providing consistent attacking threat. Portland's Kevin Kelsy leads their scoring charts but has been quiet recently. The Timbers' creative force, David Pereira da Costa, remains a key playmaker with 7 assists this season. Sporting Kansas City's home scoring streak and attacking momentum give them the edge despite Portland's superior league standing and goal difference.
Key facts
- 1.Portland Timbers have won 10 of 20 matches against Sporting Kansas City, who have won 4, with 6 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, with Portland scoring 38 and Sporting Kansas City 28 overall.
- 3.Sporting Kansas City ranks 15th with 21 points; Portland Timbers rank 10th with 32 points.
- 4.Portland Timbers have a better goal difference (-3) than Sporting Kansas City (-32) this season.
- 5.André Luiz has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, showing strong recent form.
- 6.Sporting Kansas City has scored in their last 3 home games, indicating good offensive momentum.
- 7.Kevin Kelsy is Portland's top scorer with 9 goals this season, though without goals in the last 5 games.
Prediction
Expect Sporting Kansas City to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime before cruising to a 4-1 victory. The match should feature three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sporting Kansas City
Away — Portland Timbers
The verdict
Sporting Kansas City's attacking firepower and home momentum make them favourites to secure a convincing win over Portland Timbers. Key players like André Luiz and Dejan Joveljić will be crucial in breaking down the Timbers' defence, while Portland will need to find answers quickly to avoid a heavy defeat.
Prediction generated 2 Oct 2026, 03:33 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pereira da Costa
Assist: Lassiter
Janssen
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Janssen
Penalty
André Luiz
Missed Penalty
André Luiz
Chará
Janssen
Lassiter
Assist: Fory
Reynolds
Assist: Calheira
Calheira
Afrifa
Reynolds
André Luiz
Assist: Reid
Ortiz
Bassong
André Luiz
Velde
Lassiter
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | +31 | 50 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Sporting Kansas City
4-4-2Starting XI
- 11André LuizM
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 14C. HarrisM
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 18E. KarićD
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 22Z. BassongM
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 30S. ClevelandG
Substitutes
- 1J. PulskampG
- 2I. JamesD
- 12J. KortkampG
- 16J. BartlettD
- 23E. BartlowD
- 24R. RamosF
- 29S. ReidF
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 99J. ReidD
Portland Timbers
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 7A. LassiterF
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 12R. HernándezD
- 14V. JanssenF
- 21D. CharáM
- 27J. ForyD
- 41J. PantemisG
- 80J. OrtizM
- 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
- 11AntonyF
- 15E. MillerD
- 17C. BassettM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 25T. MuseG
- 28A. AravenaF
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 73Eric IzoitaM
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Luiz | M | 82 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | — | 2/4 |
| T. Calheira | F | 71 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Reynolds | D | 71 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| S. Reid | F | 18 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Suleymanov | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ramos | F | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Agyabeng | M | 89 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Karić | D | 89 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| S. Afrifa | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Wyatt Meyer | D | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Cleveland | G | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jansen Miller | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Harris | M | 89 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Z. Bassong | M | 79 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. James | D | 18 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Bartlett | D | 10 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Pulskamp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Kortkamp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bartlow | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Reid | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Portland Timbers
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lassiter | F | 87 | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| David Pereira da Costa | M | 89 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| V. Janssen | F | 63 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Fory | D | 89 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Miller | D | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Aravena | F | 2 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Velde | F | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| J. Ortiz | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Chará | M | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Waterman | D | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antony | F | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Izoita | M | 14 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Hernández | D | 89 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Pantemis | G | 89 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Caicedo | M | 26 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ian Smith | D | 2 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Bassett | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Miller | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Fernandez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Muse | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sporting Kansas City to win against Portland Timbers.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sporting Kansas City 4–1 Portland Timbers.
- What were the win probabilities for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's model gave Sporting Kansas City a 85% chance of winning, Portland Timbers a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.