Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids
Match recap
Colorado Rapids beat Sporting Kansas City 4–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Suleymanov scored for Sporting Kansas City; Aaronson, Frederick II, Navarro, and Aaronson replied for Colorado Rapids. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.74 for Sporting Kansas City versus 4.31 for Colorado Rapids. Sporting Kansas City sit 15th in the Major League Soccer table while Colorado Rapids are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Sporting Kansas City win
Actual
1–4
Outcome probability
Sporting Kansas City and Colorado Rapids face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season encounter. With Sporting Kansas City showing strong home form and Colorado Rapids relying heavily on their key striker, this match could see plenty of goals and attacking action.
Match factors
Sporting KC's attacking midfield strength
André Luiz's recent scoring form and Manu García's creativity give Sporting KC a strong attacking edge
Rapids' reliance on Rafael Navarro
Navarro leads Rapids' scoring and assists, focal point in attack to challenge Sporting's defense
Sporting KC missing key midfielder Jacob Davis
Davis's confirmed absence weakens Sporting's midfield defensive stability and passing options
Sporting KC's home scoring momentum
Sporting KC has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 4 goals in this match
André Luiz's hot streak
André Luiz scored 8 goals in last 6 games, indicating strong form to influence match outcome
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 MLS regular season, round 5. Sporting Kansas City currently sit 15th in the league standings with 22 points from 28 games, while Colorado Rapids hold a higher position at 8th with 37 points from the same number of matches. Historically, their head-to-head meetings have been competitive, with Sporting Kansas City winning 8 of 19 encounters and Colorado Rapids 5, alongside 6 draws.
Key insights
André Luiz
Sporting Kansas City
André Luiz's recent scoring spree with 8 goals in 6 games gives Sporting a sharp attacking edge at home.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 6 appearances, 1.6 goals per game last 5
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Navarro's 10 goals this season make him the focal point of Rapids' attack, posing a real threat to Sporting's defence.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 22 appearances, 0.45 goals per game
Manu García
Sporting Kansas City
García's creativity with 4 assists in 18 games is key to Sporting's attacking build-up and goal chances.
Major League Soccer 26/274 assists in 18 appearances, 0.22 assists per game
- J
Jacob Davis
Sporting Kansas City
The absence of defensive midfielder Jacob Davis could weaken Sporting's midfield stability and defensive transitions.
Analysis
Sporting Kansas City's attacking midfield strength, led by André Luiz, who has netted 8 goals in his last 6 games, gives them a clear edge. Manu García's creativity further bolsters their offensive threat. Meanwhile, Colorado Rapids depend heavily on Rafael Navarro, their top scorer with 10 goals this season, to challenge Sporting's defence. However, Sporting Kansas City will miss key midfielder Jacob Davis, which could affect their midfield stability. Despite this, their recent home scoring momentum and attacking form suggest they will control the game.
Key facts
- 1.Sporting Kansas City have won 8 of 19 head-to-head matches against Colorado Rapids.
- 2.The average goals per head-to-head match is 2.8, with Sporting scoring 30 and Rapids 23 in total.
- 3.Sporting Kansas City are 15th in the league with 22 points from 28 games (6 wins, 4 draws, 18 losses).
- 4.Colorado Rapids are 8th with 37 points from 28 games (11 wins, 4 draws, 13 losses).
- 5.André Luiz has scored 8 goals in his last 6 games, showing excellent recent form.
- 6.Rafael Navarro leads Colorado Rapids with 10 goals this season.
- 7.Sporting Kansas City have scored in their last 5 home games, indicating strong home form.
Prediction
We predict a convincing home win for Sporting Kansas City with a final score of 4-1. The halftime score is expected to be 2-0, reflecting Sporting's ability to start strong and maintain pressure. The match should feature a total of around 4 cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sporting Kansas City
Away — Colorado Rapids
The verdict
In summary, Sporting Kansas City's potent attack and home advantage should see them comfortably overcome Colorado Rapids. While Rapids have their own threats, Sporting's recent form and key players' performances make them the favourites to secure a comprehensive victory.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:20 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Manu García
Yellow Card
Aaronson
Assist: Yapi
Miller
Yellow Card
Herrington
Yellow Card
Holding
Yellow Card
Suleymanov
Assist: Harris
Frederick II
Meyer
Navarro
Yellow Card
Yapi
Suleymanov
Holding
Navarro
Assist: Navarro
Aaronson
Assist: Navarro
Bartlett
Yellow Card
Aaronson
Travis
Bartlett
Harris
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Sporting Kansas City
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1J. PulskampG
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 6Manu GarcíaM
- 8J. DavisD
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 11C. HarrisF
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 16J. BartlettM
- 23E. BartlowD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 93M. SuleymanovF
Substitutes
- 2I. JamesD
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 14M. TschantretM
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 41P. LurotD
Colorado Rapids
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Z. SteffenG
- 6R. HoldingD
- 7D. SealyM
- 8H. OjediranM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 29M. NavarroD
- 77D. YapiM
- 99J. Travis
Substitutes
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 11A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 12J. AtencioM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 21T. Ku-DiPietroM
- 24N. CobbD
- 26M. DiopF
- 27K. Stewart-BaynesF
- 41N. DefreitasG
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Shapi Suleymanov | F | 70 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Calvin Harris | F | 84 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Jacob Davis | D | 98 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5/5 |
| Manu García | M | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jansen Miller | D | 98 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dejan Joveljić(C) | F | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Lasse Berg Johnsen | M | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ethan Bartlow | D | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Wyatt Meyer | D | 52 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Bartlett | M | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| John Pulskamp | G | 98 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Stefan Cleveland | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Macielo Tschantret | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pierre Lurot | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian James | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Borges | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kwaku Agyabeng | M | 46 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stephen Afrifa | F | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Justin Reynolds | D | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Taylor Calheira | F | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Navarro | D | 98 | 8.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Paxten Aaronson | M | 79 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Rafael Navarro | F | 98 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1/3 |
| Hamzat Ojediran | M | 98 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Wayne Frederick | M | 98 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Lucas Herrington | D | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rob Holding | D | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Travis | D | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Darren Yapi | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Zack Steffen(C) | G | 98 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dante Sealy | M | 98 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Theodore Ku-DiPietro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kimani Stewart-Baynes | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Harris | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Billo Diop | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Manyoma | M | 19 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Josh Atencio | M | 37 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Cobb | D | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keegan Rosenberry | D | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sporting Kansas City to win against Colorado Rapids.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sporting Kansas City 4–1 Colorado Rapids.
- What were the win probabilities for Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's model gave Sporting Kansas City a 95% chance of winning, Colorado Rapids a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.