Croatia vs Spain
Match recap
Spain beat Croatia 2–1 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Perišić scored for Croatia; Merino and Merino replied for Spain. Croatia held 28% possession to 72% for Spain.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-3 Spain win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
This League A fixture between Croatia and Spain promises an intriguing battle of styles, with Spain's attacking midfield strength set to challenge Croatia's defence. Both teams have shown contrasting fortunes in the competition so far.
Match factors
Spain's attacking midfield dominance
Spain's midfielders like Dani Olmo and Mikel Merino provide creative edge and goal threat over Croatia's midfield
Lamine Yamal's prolific scoring form
Yamal leads Spain with 4 goals in 4 games, showing clinical finishing and consistency
Croatia's reliance on Perišić for goals and assists
Perišić is Croatia's top scorer and assister, but overall team scoring is low and defense leaky
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors dominate
The context
Croatia have struggled in this competition with one win and three losses, scoring 4 goals but conceding 14. Spain, on the other hand, have been in fine form with four wins from four matches, netting 12 goals and conceding 5. Historically, Spain have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning half of their eight encounters.
Key insights
Lamine Yamal
Spain
Yamal leads Spain with 4 goals in 4 games, showing clinical finishing and consistency.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 goals in 4 games, 281 mins avg
Mikel Merino
Spain
Merino scored 3 goals in 4 games mostly as a substitute, providing a strong impact off the bench.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 goals in 4 games, 109 mins avg
Ivan Perišić
Croatia
Perišić is Croatia's top scorer and assister, important for set-pieces and attacking threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal and 2 assists in 4 games, 331 mins avg
Dani Olmo
Spain
Olmo is Spain's top assist provider with 3 assists in 3 games, key creative midfielder.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 assists in 3 games, 220 mins avg
Analysis
Spain's midfield creativity, led by Dani Olmo and Mikel Merino, gives them a clear tactical edge. Merino's knack for scoring, including two goals in this fixture, complements the prolific Lamine Yamal, who has four goals in four games. Croatia rely heavily on Ivan Perišić for goals and assists, but their overall scoring has been limited and their defence vulnerable. Both teams have full squads available, so expect tactics and form to be decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Croatia have played 4 matches in this competition (W1 D0 L3, GF 4 / GA 14).
- 2.Spain have played 4 matches in this competition (W4 D0 L0, GF 12 / GA 5).
- 3.In 8 head-to-head meetings, Croatia have won 2, Spain have won 4, with 2 draws.
- 4.Mikel Merino scored 2 goals in this fixture for Spain.
- 5.Ivan Perišić scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists for Croatia in this competition.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Spain with a 3-1 final score. Spain's dominance in midfield and attacking efficiency should see them take control early, likely leading 2-0 at halftime. Croatia may pull one back, but Spain's quality should secure the victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Croatia
Away — Spain
The verdict
In summary, Spain's superior form and attacking options make them favourites to win this League A match. Croatia will need to tighten their defence and find more goal threats to challenge Spain's dominance.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:08 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Yellow Card
Perišić
Perišić
Yellow Card
Álex Baena
Merino
Assist: Dani Olmo
Modrić
Yellow Card
Matanović
Rodri
Yellow Card
Modrić
Dani Olmo
Vlašić
Rodri
Yamal
Perišić
Red Card
Pedri
Merino
Assist: Zubimendi
Kovačić
Muñoz
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Croatia
4-5-1Starting XI
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2J. StanišićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 10L. ModrićM
- 13N. VlašićM
- 14I. PerišićM
- 18K. JakićM
- 20I. MatanovićF
Substitutes
- 3M. PongračićD
- 7D. BeljoF
- 9A. KramarićF
- 11A. BudimirF
- 12I. PandurG
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 17P. SučićM
- 19Marco PasalicF
- 21L. SučićM
- 22J. MišićM
- 23D. KotarskiG
Spain
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 12Marc PubillD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 15Álex BaenaM
- 16RodriM
- 19Lamine YamalM
- 20PedriM
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 23Unai SimónG
Substitutes
- 1David RayaG
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 3Robin Le NormandD
- 4Iván FresnedaD
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 7Víctor MuñozF
- 8Roberto FernándezF
- 9FermínM
- 11Yeremy PinoM
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 17Fran GarcíaD
- 18Martín ZubimendiM
Croatia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Šutalo | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| I. Perišić | M | 79 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Jakić | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Vušković | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Kovačić | M | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| D. Beljo | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Vlašić | M | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 24 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Baturina | M | 19 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Livaković | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Sučić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mišić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Kotarski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pasalic | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kramarić | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Budimir | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Pandur | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Spain
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino | M | 44 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Pedri | M | 87 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Rodri | M | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 71 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| Marc Pubill | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 19 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Víctor Muñoz | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Yeremy Pino | M | 3 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fermín | M | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Raya | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josep Martínez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran García | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roberto Fernández | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Fresneda | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Croatia vs Spain?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Spain to win against Croatia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Croatia vs Spain?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Croatia 1–3 Spain.
- What were the win probabilities for Croatia vs Spain?
- Fipster's model gave Croatia a 32% chance of winning, Spain a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.