Southampton vs Swansea
Southampton overpower Swansea in confident win
Azaz and Larin set the tone early as Southampton secure a 3-1 victory.
Southampton took control early with F. Azaz opening the scoring in the 9th minute, followed by C. Larin doubling the lead before half-time. Swansea's Z. Vipotnik pulled one back from the penalty spot after the break, but Léo Scienza sealed the win for Southampton with a late goal. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Swansea win, turning the expected upset on its head.
Outcome probability
Southampton face Swansea in what promises to be a tightly fought encounter in the regular season. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but Swansea's recent form and defensive solidity give them the edge going into this fixture.
Match factors
Southampton's strong scoring streak at home
Southampton have scored in all 5 recent matches, averaging 4 goals per home game, indicating offensive potency despite predicted loss
Swansea's solid defensive record away
Swansea have kept 80% clean sheets overall and concede only 0.5 goals away on average, suggesting defensive strength in this fixture
Swansea's midfield control and defensive solidity
Swansea midfielders like J. Fulton and M. Widell combine defensive work and passing, likely to disrupt Southampton's build-up
Southampton missing midfielder C. Jander
Confirmed out midfielder C. Jander reduces Southampton's midfield depth and creativity, potentially weakening their attack
Swansea's recent unbeaten run and away form
Swansea's form (WDWW) and strong away scoring (2.5 goals/game) support their predicted away win
The context
Swansea currently top the league with 10 points from 4 games, showcasing strong away performances. Southampton, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency, sitting 19th with 4 points from 5 games. Historically, Southampton have won more head-to-head matches, but recent momentum favors Swansea.
Key insights
- F
F. Downes
Southampton
Above average tackling rate and strong duel win rate make him key in midfield battles.
Championship 26/273.33 tackles/game vs 1.01 league avg; 62% duel win rate
- J
J. Bree
Southampton
Exceptional passing accuracy and consistent full matches contribute to both defence and build-up.
Championship 26/2794% passing accuracy vs 87% league avg for defenders
- K
K. Matsuki
Southampton
Reliable midfielder with good passing accuracy, aiding both defence and possession.
Championship 26/2787% passing accuracy vs 83% league avg for midfielders
- S
S. Welsh
Swansea
Key defensive distributor with high passing volume and solid accuracy.
Championship 26/2756.7 passes/game with 84% accuracy
- F
F. Lissah
Swansea
Important defensive presence with good passing accuracy and consistent minutes.
Championship 26/2785% passing accuracy; avg 78 min/game
- M
M. Yeo
Swansea
High defensive work rate and duel success make him impactful in attack and defence.
Championship 26/271.75 tackles/game; 48% duel win rate
Analysis
Swansea's defensive record away from home is impressive, conceding only 0.5 goals on average and keeping clean sheets in 80% of their matches. Their midfield, led by players like J. Fulton and M. Widell, combines defensive grit with effective passing, likely to disrupt Southampton's build-up play. Southampton's midfield will miss C. Jander, reducing their creativity and depth. Despite Southampton's strong scoring streak at home, averaging 4 goals per game recently, Swansea's form and tactical discipline suggest they will edge this one.
Key facts
- 1.Swansea lead the league with 10 points from 4 games.
- 2.Southampton have 4 points from 5 games, ranking 19th.
- 3.Southampton have won 12 of 19 head-to-head matches against Swansea historically.
- 4.Swansea keep clean sheets in 80% of their matches away from home.
- 5.Swansea concede only 0.5 goals on average in away games.
- 6.Southampton have scored in all 5 recent home matches, averaging 4 goals per game.
- 7.Swansea's away scoring average is 2.5 goals per game.
- 8.Southampton's midfielder C. Jander is out, impacting their midfield depth.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is an away win for Swansea with a 2-1 scoreline. Swansea are expected to take a 1-0 lead by halftime and hold on despite Southampton's efforts to equalize. The match is also predicted to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Southampton
Away — Swansea
The verdict
In summary, Swansea's superior league form, solid defensive performances, and midfield control make them favourites to claim all three points. Southampton will fight hard, especially at home, but Swansea's momentum and tactical strengths should see them through to a narrow victory.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Azaz
Assist: Downes
Larin
Assist: Bree
Okopu
Vipotnik
Penalty
Ronald
Yellow Card
Fulton
Just
Vipotnik
Fellows
Léo Scienza
Assist: Matsuki
Yeo
Larin
Léo Scienza
Ward-Prowse
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 12 |  Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Southampton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 3R. ManningD
- 4F. DownesM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 10F. AzazM
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 14J. BreeD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 18T. FellowsM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
Substitutes
- 5J. StephensD
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 11L. DobbinF
- 23S. EdozieM
- 25G. LongG
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 28D. MubamaF
- 34WelingtonD
Swansea
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4J. FultonM
- 5B. CabangoD
- 6M. StamenićM
- 8E. JustM
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 14J. TymonD
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 23S. WelshD
- 26F. LissahD
- 30Joseph OkopuM
- 49M. YeoM
Substitutes
- 1A. FisherG
- 2J. KeyD
- 3J. SeeltD
- 7M. WidellM
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
- 20Tiago ParenteD
- 33A. IdahF
- 35RonaldF
- 46S. EustáquioM
Southampton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Larin | F | 85 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 6 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Léo Scienza | M | 85 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3/5 |
| F. Azaz | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Bree | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Downes | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. Schlotterbeck | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Wood-Gordon | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Manning | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| D. Mubama | F | 5 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Matsuki | M | 14 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Ward-Prowse | M | 92 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Edozie | M | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Daniel Peretz | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Fellows | M | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Z. Abbott | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cameron Bragg | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Welington | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Dobbin | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Long | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Stephens | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Swansea
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Vipotnik | F | 70 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Eom Ji-Sung | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Stamenić | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| E. Just | M | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| A. Idah | F | 20 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Welsh | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Tymon | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ronald | F | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Cabango | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Fulton | M | 63 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Yeo | M | 78 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Widell | M | 27 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Lissah | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Eustáquio | M | 27 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joseph Okopu | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Vigouroux | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Key | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Seelt | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Parente | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Fisher | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Southampton vs Swansea?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Swansea to win against Southampton.
- What score did Fipster predict for Southampton vs Swansea?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Southampton 1–2 Swansea.
- What were the win probabilities for Southampton vs Swansea?
- Fipster's model gave Southampton a 7% chance of winning, Swansea a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.